Have we misjuded Tesla

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

For what it's worth I think I have agreed with you more than not over the past decade. Honestly I would hate to lose your input, especially over my nonsense. I hope I will be a conduit for understanding, not a means of enforcement of intellectual purity. If it's me who drove you out, please stay. We can disagree. That's what's great about this place. Me and dspencer and vt can fight. But we respect and value different perspectives. Don't go out on account of me.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

I've been wrong about a lot of things before. I've been wrong about corporate debt. I thought it would hit a ceiling in 2016. It continued on an exponential trend for two+ more years. I am not always right. Please don't fear disagreement with me. I deserve it.

[santafe2]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

For what it's worth I think I have agreed with you more than not over the past decade. Honestly I would hate to lose your input, especially over my nonsense. I hope I will be a conduit for understanding, not a means of enforcement of intellectual purity. If it's me who drove you out, please stay. We can disagree. That's what's great about this place. Me and dspencer and vt can fight. But we respect and value different perspectives. Don't go out on account of me.

Thanks DC, it's not about you, I've appreciated talking with you. This was just the last time I'll take the time to add something of substance here without a response that makes me think. If you and jk and GRG, (I'm sure there are others but y'all are the only ones I can think of now), are interested in a conversation outside of iTulip, I'm open but I'm done posting here.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Thanks DC, it's not about you, I've appreciated talking with you. This was just the last time I'll take the time to add something of substance here without a response that makes me think. If you and jk and GRG, (I'm sure there are others but y'all are the only ones I can think of now), are interested in a conversation outside of iTulip, I'm open but I'm done posting here.

I'm sorry to see it. And I'm sorry if the post came off as flippant. It was meant to harken back to our earlier conversation about ends justifying the means business practices: general idea was Bonds' home run record might fight that mold better than Ruth's. Was meant to be a bit of an inside joke. Wasn't meant to be incoherent and thoughtless.

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

meantime

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

meantime

Here's the other thing: There still is no $35k Model 3. The cheapest one can get one is $49k. And the tax credit is halfed now, halfed again in July. Meanwhile, in the US market in 2019, we have:

1. The Hyundai Kona Electric. 260mi range for $37,495 with the full $7,500 rebate.
2. The Kia Nero EV. 240 mile range. Same price.
3. Nissan Leaf SL. 240 mile range. Same price.

Meanwhile, for 2019 Model X competition, there is:

1. Audi E-tron Quattro for $75k

And for Model S competitors we have:

1. Jaguar i-Pace for $70k

And for Roadster competitors we have:

1. Aston-Martin RapidE

Then for model-year 2020, coming out in 2019, we have:

1. Mercedes EQC to compete with the X for $75k
2. Kia Soul EV for cheapos
3. Porsche Taycan to compete with the S for $90k
4. Volvo Polestar 2 to take on the Model 3, supposedly with 350mi of range for $40k.
5. Mini Electric for a new niche
6. BMW iX3 to take on the X
7. Ford's "Not Mach 1" SUV to take on the X

Then there's the startups:

1. Chinese maker Byton says it'll have an electric crossover in the US next year
2. Fisker says it'll have the eMotion to compete with the S
3. NEVS 9-3 (based on the old Saab)
4. Whatever BYD and BAIC are coming up with for export. BYD is already selling the e6 in California, Chicago and NYC for fleet sales. The BYD Qin meanwhile has sold best in China and Latin America. And the BAIC EC is currently the best selling electric car in the world. And they're currently building a plant in Mexico for North American sales. They have a plant in Veracruz, but a new one's coming. Existing plant is pumping out the D20 that they're letting go for 180k pesos, about $9k new.

And of course, there's the old standby regular Leafs and Bolts and the rest.

This is just off the top. It's about to get very crowded in this space, very fast. For the first time in 30 years, China's domestic car sales dropped this year. A lot too, something like 10 or 12%. The home-growns are going to be increasingly desperate to get into the big NA and EU markets. And there's going to be increasing pressure to squeeze out foreign market share.

It's a very interesting, and very risky, time for cars. I actually think there's too much panic and quick-shifting going on. The Japanese may well come out of this looking best simply by plodding along methodically, doing what they do best, and not panicking.

[Techdread]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Tesla should not aim for a cheap model for consumers, the economics don't make sense.

Get the self driving part right and they will warrant their valuation.

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Agreed
Tesla should be in the Audi/Merc/BMW/Porsche side of things...........but these guys have real money & experance at racing etc.
Mike

[jk]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

here's a running list of executive departures from tesla

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Press like it

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

If anything offered in this thread has value, it should be very clear in the next year or so. In November of 2017 EV sales in the US were ~17,000 cars. In November 2018, ~44,000. A YOY ~150% increase. Where did it come from? Tesla. In November 2018 they controlled almost 56% of the US market and sold 24,600 of the 44,000 EVs sold. If the quality is as bad as proposed here, they're toast. Tick tock.

Tesla could last for these reasons:
buyers are irrational
Musk has political clout
The revenue model is based on exploiting public policy to sell over priced cars to "environmentalists"

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

"Better batteries"?

I have long given up trying to keep track of all the new, revolutionary battery tech announcements over the years.

Seems to me the hard reality of battery technology is painfully incremental. They are, after all, chemical reaction devices. And when that is pushed hard sometimes they seem to transform into excellent fire starters.

Totally agree with that. The next "revolution" is likely to be something more like a fuel cell---the input to the car is a chemical, not grid power
t

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

DC, if the facts are as you say, Musk is even worse than I thought!

[touchring]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Totally agree with that. The next "revolution" is likely to be something more like a fuel cell---the input to the car is a chemical, not grid power
t

Platinum? Any industry insider lurking around?

[vt]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Tesla powerwall can't deliver:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/19/tesla...attery-report/