Have we misjuded Tesla

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

We'll have to see how this plays out. The Trump administration has not campaigned against, or come out against, renewable energy. It's possible the Dems in the House will give the president a win on "border security" in trade for a few of their promises including EV tax credits. As support for the idea that Republicans aren't against renewables, I offer the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 which extended solar tax credits for stationary renewables. I'm not saying your cautionary note is incorrect, just that the game is not clearly over. It would not surprise me if the January bill offered by the House Dems to restart the government doesn't include a face saving border security attachment along with a little something for EVs. Well see.

Yeah, the politics are shifting fast on this one. PV incentives are geared toward the top 1%, so a lot of GOP and Dem donor-class support them. Ditto with the EV tax credits. As long as the policy you're talking about is a regressive wealth transfer, bipartisan support is always a possibility. This isn't just opining about political opinion, it's a fact.

But I am also starting to see a bubbling groundswell of anger at Silicon Valley and Musk in particular. His flaunting the SEC then publicly saying he has no respect for them pissed off my Congressman. Heard so with my own ears. Must have pissed off others. Anger seems to be bipartisan. The 2016 House is different from the 2006 even though the Speaker is the same. Progressive caucus has tripled and New Dems have been cut in half. The old third way triangulating center is no longer the majority of the majority party. We have a pro-tariff GOP now. Cracks in the consensus we've been living with since at least Reagan abound. And I suspect new strategies for expanding renewables will have to adapt. The good news is it would provide an opportunity to create much better incentives that are not only much more effective at rolling out renewables, but which directly benefit many more Americans as well.

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

VW solution

They get the price down, by a rise in the cost of non eletric cars.....they also cut away the "fat" of unpopluar models (3 door cars) & talk is the Audi TT is toast. VW need the factory space in Hungary.

Now, just how "They" going to convince Mr/Mrs average to trade that nice brisk FAST 2 litre Turbo diesel for a car that will not better 100 mph & at high speed cruze will drian its battery very quickly......................?
Mega

[EJ]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

We'll have to see how this plays out. The Trump administration has not campaigned against, or come out against, renewable energy. It's possible the Dems in the House will give the president a win on "border security" in trade for a few of their promises including EV tax credits. As support for the idea that Republicans aren't against renewables, I offer the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 which extended solar tax credits for stationary renewables. I'm not saying your cautionary note is incorrect, just that the game is not clearly over. It would not surprise me if the January bill offered by the House Dems to restart the government doesn't include a face saving border security attachment along with a little something for EVs. Well see.

Indeed the record of extensions of EV, solar, and other alt energy tax credits is so consistent that I've discounted these deadlines for the past several years, which is why I was a bit surprised to find this one actually going into effect, tomorrow in fact.

The trigger is the 200k unit sales threshold that Tesla is the first to achieve. Even if only the lower end of an estimated average $70k per unit, bipartisan support or not for the tax credits that primarily serve a high net worth target consumer audience, it's politically difficult to justify the continued application of taxpayer dollars to subsidize what is at 200k units at least $14b in auto sales.

Ford, VW, and other auto makers entering the EV market will continue to qualify for the credit, giving them a cost advantage over Tesla until their volumes also reach the 200k unit threshold.

Now you'd think that an event that is widely known ahead of time might already be priced into TSLA stock. Goldman Sachs apparently doesn't think so. But a cult company stock doesn't trade like normal company stock, as the Goldman analyst notes indirectly by referring to a peak in positive Tesla sentiment. There are so many companies that we've forgotten about that were once as highly regarded by the media and general population as Tesla is today, that are now footnotes in history that we tend to associate with highlights of particular era. A company like Tesla can go from dominating the media cycle for ten years to complete obscurity in a year or two, replaced by the next new big thing. Likely Tesla will be marginalized by increments and lose its halo status bit by bit, after having carved out a real EV market for the majors. The majors, following in Tesla's wake, will take what Tesla has taught them about EV design and consumer tastes and execute on it with typical mass production and product management acumen that the majors have proved quite good at. Apple is doing likewise in the VR market, waiting for Oculus and others to spend billions to identify key product requirements, and apply all of these market learning costs born by early VR entrants to make the ideal VR/AR product. Under NDA, but logically the physical product will be typical Apple design, fashionable so as to not make you look silly when you're wearing it the way VR headset do today, that are appropriately referred to pejoratively as "VR goggles." Public information about Apple's future AR/VR plans is wireless connectivity to Apple TV where the application and image processing is done, leaving designers to concentrate on making the wearable part light and attractive. In other words, at least as functional as Oculus Quest but with "must have" beautiful Apple signature consumer product design that says that you, the owner, are in on the next big thing.

Trying to time the peak in Tesla's time cult/halo status in order to short it seems like a less productive endeavor that trying to identify one of the next new halo companies, now obscure, that will take Tesla's place. Part of the project here going forward.

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

The Battery (Panasonic) is a smart design, so it the motor............it is who does it belong?
Meantime

[GRG55]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Tesla tries to be like Apple in many respects, and succeeds in some of those. Like Apple, a computer company that came out of left field with the iPod to knock off Sony, the dominant personal, portable music device maker, Musk made much of Tesla making all other car companies in the world obsolete. Like Apple, Tesla has managed to make people line up around the block (figuratively) to patiently wait for the new product to be made available. And like Apple there is no doubt the design, technology and promotion of the products bear the very large imprint of the obsessive/compulsive person leading the company.

The difference? Although both Steve Jobs and Elon Musk both have reputations for being tough, difficult and demanding people to work with, I never had the impression Jobs would take the company down if it outgrew him. Maybe he learned to avoid that after he was tossed the first time? With Musk I sense the same behavior I have witnessed up close on several occasions - a brilliant, demanding, wildly successful individual that simply does not have the ability to let anyone else run the show as it outgrows him. They destroy the company before they "let anyone else take it away from them". The exodus of senior talent at Tesla may be one sign of this? Musk may be, at the same time, Tesla's biggest asset and Tesla's biggest liability.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Tesla tries to be like Apple in many respects, and succeeds in some of those. Like Apple, a computer company that came out of left field with the iPod to knock off Sony, the dominant personal, portable music device maker, Musk made much of Tesla making all other car companies in the world obsolete. Like Apple, Tesla has managed to make people line up around the block (figuratively) to patiently wait for the new product to be made available. And like Apple there is no doubt the design, technology and promotion of the products bear the very large imprint of the obsessive/compulsive person leading the company.

The difference? Although both Steve Jobs and Elon Musk both have reputations for being tough, difficult and demanding people to work with, I never had the impression Jobs would take the company down if it outgrew him. Maybe he learned to avoid that after he was tossed the first time? With Musk I sense the same behavior I have witnessed up close on several occasions - a brilliant, demanding, wildly successful individual that simply does not have the ability to let anyone else run the show as it outgrows him. They destroy the company before they "let anyone else take it away from them". The exodus of senior talent at Tesla may be one sign of this? Musk may be, at the same time, Tesla's biggest asset and Tesla's biggest liability.

Musk’s past leadership behaviour(or lack of it) at X/PayPal provides some insight into his current and future behaviour.

Past performance is indicative of future performance.

And his past performance is poor as he got rolled.

I’ve had the chance to meet and engage with a few globally significant/recognised leaders(including a serendipitous interview with a former Tesla board members), even working for one of them.

So while it’s hard to define effective leadership, you know it when you see it.

i’ve also had the chance to assess hundreds of young men and a few women under considerable physical/mental/emotional/social stressors while trying to solve problems.

One of the things we try to do is enhance their ability to understand their reputation(how others see them) and reconcile it with their identity(how they see themselves) so they are more effective in a small team environment.

In most people with a healthy understanding of themselves there is a lot of overlap, if not a perfect “eclipse”.

For people with an unhealthy and inaccurate understanding of themselves, there is a broad gap between the two.

On top of the Machiavellian Game of Thrones commercial relationships Musk has had, there have also been quite chaotic personal relationships with immediate family and spouses.

There are enough legit public data points on Musk to run a decent psychological profile on him.

While I’m not a school trained paychologist, I think I have the work experience of a “schoolhouse” amateur psychologist.

Musk is “all in” for now the 3rd or 4th time.

Betting the house on possibilities rather than probabilities is a very high risk road to ruin.

With a financial Gordian Knot tying all of his companies together like a boat anchor chain.

He needs to stop pretending he is Tony Stark and start taking after a real life leader like Ernest Shackleton.

Tony Stark drills tunnels and saves Thai kids, Ernest Shackleton brings his team home alive and complete.

[Techdread]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

He needs to stop pretending he is Tony Stark and start taking after a real life leader like Ernest Shackleton.

Tony Stark drills tunnels and saves Thai kids, Ernest Shackleton brings his team home alive and complete.

Musk is not pretending to be Tony Stark his goal is much bigger than that, A lot of his initiatives tie in with the Universe of "The Culture" from the author Iain Banks.

SpaceX, Solar City, Tesla, Open AI, Neurolink & DeepMInd.

I have to respect him, because these are all potential world shaping plays...

[Mega]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Betamax V VHS......Betamax was a better system, but VHS killed it on cost & Films you could get..................VW & the others will remember that.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

Musk is not pretending to be Tony Stark his goal is much bigger than that, A lot of his initiatives tie in with the Universe of "The Culture" from the author Iain Banks.

SpaceX, Solar City, Tesla, Open AI, Neurolink & DeepMInd.

I have to respect him, because these are all potential world shaping plays...

I think Musk’s movie/TV cameos, including of especially Iron Man, pander to his Tony Stark ambition and identity.

Techdread: Legitimate question.

Can you name another founder/CEO in history who has been able to successfully juggle anywhere near the same concurrent breadth, depth, and diversity of work Musk has committed himself to?

Tesla: Co-Founder, CEO
SpaceX:Founder, CEO, CTO
Solar City: Chairman
Neuralink: Co-Founder, assumed active board role
The Boring Company: Founder, assumed Chairman(due to 90% equity) and CEO(no other designated leader)
Deepmind: investor
Open AI: resigned, Feb 2018

Musk’s behaviour is in many ways the absolute antithesis of leadership and management best practice.

Musk’s behaviour is also the antithesis of most successful investors’ investing thesis.

Investors want dedicated and focused CEOs who can attract and retain talent and capital solving the stated problem and maintaining discipline required to avoid mission creep/distraction from anything new and shiny.

And Musk regularly displays a dangerous lack of focus and discipline.

With $14+ billion in Tesla debt/liabilities in calendar year 2017, one would think that worthy enough of a CEO’s complete and undivided attention.

Especially considering Tesla’s own perilous state, by Musk’s own admission.

But instead, Musk is uncontrollably ego driven using his recent opportunity with the Leslie Stahl 60 Minutes interview to reassert his control, rather than necessary damage control.

Musk appears to be accountable to no one, not even himself. Examples are a plenty.

And that lack of accountability combined with Musk’s continuous distraction and lack of personal discipline makes him personally unworthy of investment.

To me, Musk is like that kid in “It’s a Good Life” Twilight Zone episode mixed with the Wizard of Oz.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

I agree with your big picture thrust, but I take issue with some of the details. Don't know why this gets to me so much but it does:

1. It wasn't the Iron Man movie that started the Tony Stark thing. Musk did. Through his PR firm. It was in the New York Times years earlier.
2. He was not a founder of Tesla. Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning in 2003. Musk invested early, then joined the board, and eventually bought a controlling stake and forced them out in 2008, and made himself CEO. Musk literally sued them in 2009 to get himself the right to call himself a founder. That's how petty the propaganda is. But he did not found it and was not CEO for the first 5 years.
3. Musk is not a CTO of anything. He gave himself the title at SpaceX. It's bullshit too. Here's how you know: Tom Mueller, the actual rocket engineer with actual engineering degrees, also has the title CTO.
4. Solar City was founded by Peter and Lyndon Rive in 2006, who got money partly from Musk and probably partly from the family's emerald mining operation in Tanzania. Musk was chairman. But the company went bankrupt. Musk used SpaceX to buy out the company's assets, then Tesla's shareholders to absorb the debts. In any reasonably run world, this type of obvious laundering would be illegal, and markets would punish him for abusing shareholders like that, but whatever. It's not. Point being by the end of 2016, they moved out of most states they were operating in, remaining only in 18, and slashed their workforce by 75%. It's a 10-year failure spun to look as something other than what it is. There are lots of reasons for why it failed. But then again there's a reason why a lot of residential contract work is still small and local...
5. The boring company has sold more hats and "flamethrowers" than anything else. It's pretty much a merchandising unit capable of sucking up government cash. It was spun out of SpaceX so the money can go straight back to Musk. Musk's Trust only has 54% of SpaceX. He personally has 90%+ of boring, and SpaceX has 6%, leaving the remaining crumbs for employees.
6. After his SEC 420 debacle, he resigned as Chairman of Tesla, making him only CEO. Don't forget that last year as Chairman he paid himself as CEO the biggest compensation package that ever went to an auto executive in history. Mission accomplished.
7. Here's the thing with Musk's Trust, it has fiduciaries on it that aren't him. This includes Tim Draper and the Draper Fisher Jurvetson Fund. So here's the thing, Stephan Jurvetson is a fiduciary for Musk's Trust that owns a controlling share of SpaceX, and on the board of Tesla and personal owner of about 5% of Solar City's stock that went into the toilet before him and Musk had Tesla buy it out from the board. Hence why all the big pension funds from the City of Boston to the State of Arkansas are suing them. Point is, Musk is the legend, the media man of myth, but there are other people running things out of the limelight.

I mean, the point is, the PR's laid on so thick that even critics repeat the lies. He never got into Stanford's Physics PhD program, so he never quit after one week, he did not found Tesla, he himself created the comparisons between him and fictional character Tony Stark. He's not a rocket scientist. He's an investor who buys things out. The supposed 'juggling act' is not so impressive or impossible when you start realizing what's really going on.

[jk]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla




http://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...-will-collapse

[santafe2]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

It's unlikely that long term, Tesla will make it, but the numbers for 2018 are in, and they crushed it. They are the Babe Ruth of EVs. I know of no other comparison, their numbers for 2018 are Ruthian. But, like Ruth, they'll most likely be kicked to the curb as soon as the world forgets what they've done for EVs and moves ahead without them.

Here are the 2018 numbers for the US:
Overall EV Sales growth: 199,818 to 361,307 units sold or ~81% growth YoY.
Sales growth w/o Tesla: 151,443 to 169,680 or ~12% growth YoY.
Tesla sales growth: 48,375 to 191,627 or ~300% growth YoY.
Tesla as a share of the US EV market: 53%

Any of us can read these numbers 10 different ways and spin this to suit our thesis. All I'm saying is, enjoy the moment. It's possible that one startup proved this is a market.

That takes me back to my Ruth analogy. In 1920 Ruth moved to the Yankees and hit 54 home runs. He didn't just hit more home runs than anyone else in baseball, he hit more home runs than any other team in baseball except one. He redefined the game. He became a verb for success. But that was not his life experience. He was hailed, then he became a hero, then he was rejected, then ridiculed and tossed aside at the end of his life.

None of us know if Tesla can continue to lead in 2019 or if their proclivities will overcome their raw talent but I'd suggest we enjoy the moment and think about the possibility that we might be watching the new dawn of electric transportation. And if we are watching a sea change, our children will have a lot more respect for the hero version of Musk sold in 30-40 years than the unvarnished version we see today.

[jk]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

their accounting is more than merely suspect, and they're still burning capital. this, in a milieu of tightening finance, does not bode well.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

The difference between baseball and business is that it's much harder to cook the books in one than the other. It doesn't take the babe to buy something for a dollar, sell it for 90 cents, and claim brilliance. EVs will come. Home runs will come. But even Bonds might never eclipse Aaron in Coopertown. Ends. Means.

[santafe2]

Re: Have we misjuded Tesla

The difference between baseball and business is that it's much harder to cook the books in one than the other. It doesn't take the babe to buy something for a dollar, sell it for 90 cents, and claim brilliance. EVs will come. Home runs will come. But even Bonds might never eclipse Aaron in Coopertown. Ends. Means.

That is simply one of the most incoherent responses I've ever read. I blame myself for even trying to add to this site over the last decade. I'm out.