Trump Impeachment Trade

[metalman]

in aug. trump said the stock market will crash if he's impeached...

https://nypost.com/2018/08/23/heres-...was-impeached/

odds are rising...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...irst-term#data

Witty comments at that site...

keldorr92 • 2 hours ago
I'm enjoying the mueller saga, but I really wish they'd just bring us to the season finale instead of dragging it out. Really could have been 13 episodes instead of 23

Ingen Angiven • 6 hours ago
Trump's Mueller Tweets seem more panicky than usual today.

keldorr92 Ingen Angiven • 3 hours ago
Kinda sad it's a daily occurrence for the president to insult his prosecutor

He's like that kid in juvy that keeps telling the judge at his parole hearing "f))k the police" and getting his sentence extended

trump could be right & is on his way.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump Impeachment Trade

in aug. trump said the stock market will crash if he's impeached...

https://nypost.com/2018/08/23/heres-...was-impeached/

odds are rising...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...irst-term#data

Witty comments at that site...



trump could be right & is on his way.

Trade is at 45 cents.

The Post, an hour ago...

The special counsel’s office wrote that Cohen’s lies to Congress “obscured the fact that the Moscow Project was a lucrative business opportunity that sought, and likely required the assistance of the Russian government,” and that, if completed, the Trump organization could have received “hundreds of millions of dollars from Russian sources in licensing fees and other revenues.” They noted, as Cohen had already admitted, that Cohen and Trump discussed the project “well into the campaign.”

Trade spikes on Monday?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump Impeachment Trade

For my money? He'll be impeached. And not convicted. unless he resigns first. The stock market, unless it's truly terrified about Pence, won't care. It's not a person. It doesn't have desires.

[vt]

Re: Trump Impeachment Trade

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel was asked a few months ago what effect a Trump impeachment would have on the stock market.

Siegel said "None. The market would be fine with President Pence". "What is important is the Republican agenda, not President Trump."

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump Impeachment Trade

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel was asked a few months ago what effect a Trump impeachment would have on the stock market.

Siegel said "None. The market would be fine with President Pence". "What is important is the Republican agenda, not President Trump."

I agree. I mean, maybe not quite none. Somebody's gonna do something rash. But the vast majority of people aren't investing based on Trump v. Pence sitting in the Oval Office. The difference from a tax and policy perspective is almost imperceptible. It's like arguing Ford was way worse or better for the stock market than Nixon. Maybe less tariff wrangling and more tax cut wrangling on the margin? At most? What's the big difference, and who cares?