the strong usd

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

I've been tracking the outbreak by country in Europe for the last 2+ weeks. It is of course possible that Greece will see a severe outbreak but they've locked down the country yesterday at a time when the spread remained low and is declining in most other European countries so a spike in daily spread from the current 8-9% increase per day seems unlikely. BTW, that is also the rate of case spread in Italy. All my measurements are from March 10 through this morning and include the 13 countries in Europe with at least 50 identified cases of COVID-19 on 3/10. At that time 57% of all reported cases were in Italy. I'll offer two examples where the median age is similar:

* Italy had 9,172 reported cases and currently have 69,176, 6820 deaths, median age 45.5 years
* Germany had 1,281 reported cases and currently have 32,986, 181 deaths, median age 47.1 years

Thanks for your post, very informative. I'm a little surprised that the median age is lower in Italy than Germany. My understanding why Italy has such a high death rate is because they have a lot of old people in their population. I don't have time now to check this out, but if I get around to it, I'll try and post here with an update. However, based on the thoroughness of your post, it sounds like what you have posted is most likely correct.

[geodrome]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-..._copyURL_share

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

This is valid, to the best of my knowledge. However, is it not possible that some will die due to Covid-19, but not be counted as Covid-19 deaths? I think this must be the situation. However, whether it is statistically significant or not, is the question.

P.S. I'm no statistician, by the way.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

This is valid, to the best of my knowledge. However, is it not possible that some will die due to Covid-19, but not be counted as Covid-19 deaths? I think this must be the situation. However, whether it is statistically significant or not, is the question.

P.S. I'm no statistician, by the way.

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-..._copyURL_share

Check out Chris Martenson's latest:

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

On my part, the debate revolves around treatment protocol. Here in the UK we keep hearing about a desperate need for ventilators, assumed for desperately ill patients in ICU, for which the numbers are not in dispute. My input relates to the ongoing silence about the potential to use a cheap, safe and easily available protocol, intravenous Vitamin C, Hydrocortisone and Vitamin B1, (Thiamine), which has already been shown to bring down death rates for Sepsis by 80%. Why the silence?

[geodrome]

Re: the strong usd

Check out Chris Martenson's latest:

My point wasn't that no measures should be taken or measures should be relaxed, etc. I just think the epidemic might be further along than we believe and the death toll may not continue growing at the rate we extrapolate from current stats, which is potentially good news.


I am sure that some COVID-19 deaths aren't being counted as such. Especially by governments that want to keep their statistics "pretty." But IMO hospitalized persons with serious symptoms are much more likely to get tested. Thus I think on the whole selection bias is in the direction of testing those who are very sick and thus overestimating the death rate. It is uncertain by how much, but IMO infection rates are probably higher than we think and consequently the death rate is lower.


No doubt hospitals are overwhelmed. Theoretically the higher peak (as compared to say the flu) that we're trying to flatten may be due to higher R0 and/or higher death rate. I think our current statistics overestimate the death rate and underestimate R0. If we could test for anti-bodies to detect who's already had it and take some unbiased samples from around the world, it would give us a better idea of how far along we are. But given that the data are limited I think pre-cautions are justified.


I would also add that the economic displacement, the fear, the stress of lockdown, the news cycle has itself made people less resistant to infection. It's well known that stress reduces immunity. This stress has shaved off years of countless people's lives. We shouldn't only focus on the visible deaths, but the invisible effects as well, even though they're hard to measure.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

3.3 Million new applicants for unemployment benefits last week is staggering.
In Canada the figure was, proportionate to population size, three times worse than the USA at 1 Million applicants last week.

Looking at probabilities, instead of absolutes, there's probably three broad economic outcomes:

1. Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus worldwide results in a reasonably quick post-recession rebuild of economic activity once the virus is dealt with (say 12 to 24 months to get global GDP where it was);
2. Monetary and fiscal stimulus results in nothing better than very slow growth globally, over an extended period of time (a decade or more?), somewhat similar to everyone this past decade getting excited about 1% annual growth in Germany, the so-called "powerhouse" economy of Europe;
3. Global depression (which imo can't be entirely ruled out, although I think it still a low probability outcome given the policy responses we have seen so far).

Coming back to the title of this thread, I wonder if this is now the inflection point shaping up for the secular trend change in the US$.

• On the one hand the US Administration is throwing the US$ under the bus in an effort to stimulate a recovery from the current disaster. On the other hand, which nation anywhere else is NOT doing the same. So will it mean relative currency exchange valuations remain more or less the same?
• Then again, if international trade is smashed because of the virus, will the demand for US$ decline materially for some time?
• Or do we see all currencies inflate against some tangible reference such as gold, or oil, or Tesla battery packs?

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

there's still a dollar shortage to service dollar denominated debt, esp among em's which have been hard hit by the global sudden stop. otoh all major currencies are being devalued and it's hard to talk about a trade-weighted value when trade has stopped.

there can be no doubt, though, that pumping all this money into the economy has got to devalue the dollar vs "stuff." or at least some stuff. shortages can be expected to widen as suppliers have shut down, but consumption of basics, at least, will continue. what can happen to prices? now give everyone an extra $1200. what wil it be spent on? toilet paper.

i read an article about a restuarant outside chicago that was doing really well in its take-out business: it delivered a roll of toilet paper with every order! talk about full service - farm to table to toilet.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

I'm afraid you've totally misunderstood what I was saying. All I was attempting to do was question a point that geodrome made, that was all, nothing more nothing less.

Also, not all hospitals in every country in the world are being overwhelmed. At present, they are not being overwhelmed in Australia. Now, if Covid-19 really takes off here, and I don't know if it will, most likely our hospitals will be overwhelmed. Primarily because Australia does not have enough ICU beds available.

FWIW, I think Australia has been too slow to act. Fortunately, not as slow as the US, but still too slow. To date, the only thing in Australia's advantage as I understand the virus, is that it is still summer here. But as we move into winter, things might well take a turn for the worse.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

australia also has a particular shortage of masks, since so many were used during the recent fires.

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

australia also has a particular shortage of masks, since so many were used during the recent fires.

Also, the fact that masks in Australia have recently been shipped to China, does not help either:

https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/new...china/3983282/

[lakedaemonian]

Re: the strong usd

duplicate post