the strong usd

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

But we don't have that much time. We in the US will have 100 million cases by mid April, more or less.

That is pure conjecture and not borne out by the data in any country preceding us on this unhappy trail. Reported cases in the US have increased roughly 50X in the last two weeks. The great majority of that increase is due to lack of planning, testing and mitigation. We are not turning the corner yet, except possibly Washington state, but the virus will not continue to expand at this exponential rate now that most of us are using basic distancing and cleaning habits. As an extreme infection example I offer Italy. Absolutely overrun by the virus. Their rate of infection increase was 400% every 5 days just a week or 10 days ago. It is now 90%. Not great but it has continued to drop every day. Let's say they peak out at 120,000 cases. That's 2% of their population and that will take months.

The US has averaged a 35% reported increase in cases each day for the last two weeks. These rates of increase will not continue for another month. Also, when we talk about the US we have to understand that there is a rate of infection in New York that is 20X higher than the average of all other states. It skews the data as does West Virginia with 7 cases. I'm not saying there aren't issues. Michigan looks troubling. But please don't post this sort of hair-on-fire nonsense here.

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

In addition I would add that the Imperial College report made no mention of any other mitigating mechanism, (beyond their apparent wish to display the worst case scenario requiring massive lock down), than vaccination. Let me guess, their remit, from whomever funded their report; was precisely to disregard any non Pharma solution and to display the worst case possible. In which case, all I must add is, that their actions are Criminal. At some point in the future, they will be forced to hang their heads in shame, and I for one will wish to see them in a Court of the Law for their actions in not describing the potential for other forms of mitigation, such as known use of Vitamin C to treat virus infections..

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

In addition I would add that the Imperial College report made no mention of any other mitigating mechanism, (beyond their apparent wish to display the worst case scenario requiring massive lock down), than vaccination. Let me guess, their remit, from whomever funded their report; was precisely to disregard any non Pharma solution and to display the worst case possible. In which case, all I must add is, that their actions are Criminal. At some point in the future, they will be forced to hang their heads in shame, and I for one will wish to see them in a Court of the Law for their actions in not describing the potential for other forms of mitigation, such as known use of Vitamin C to treat virus infections..

On the contrary. The Imperial College report is happy talk Pollyanna level of wishful thinking. The infectivity of the disease is two or three time as high as they are modeling. Drug therapy might or might not work but that is not proven yet and will undoubtedly be applied in a hospital ( i.e. when it is too late).

Why exactly do you think that world governments are going straight to the lock-down plan? Is it just a contest to show who can abuse authority the most? Did China put a half a billion people under house arrest for kicks? Nobody knows what the death rate is from this disease and likewise nobody knows how many people will have permanent lung scaring from a "mild" case. But go on promoting vitamin C and walk around in public if you think this is all hogwash. How old are you Mr. Coles? I'm guessing that you are north of 50 but you talk like a child.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

duplicate removed

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

Let's say they peak out at 120,000 cases. That's 2% of their population and that will take months.

That is, of course, .2% or 1:500.

[Southernguy]

Re: the strong usd

In my opinion a very good study about covid19. Some people says Argentina and maybe other countries are taking as a base for policy making: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

[peakishmael]

Re: the strong usd

That is pure conjecture and not borne out by the data in any country preceding us on this unhappy trail. Reported cases in the US have increased roughly 50X in the last two weeks. The great majority of that increase is due to lack of planning, testing and mitigation. We are not turning the corner yet, except possibly Washington state, but the virus will not continue to expand at this exponential rate now that most of us are using basic distancing and cleaning habits. As an extreme infection example I offer Italy. Absolutely overrun by the virus. Their rate of infection increase was 400% every 5 days just a week or 10 days ago. It is now 90%. Not great but it has continued to drop every day. Let's say they peak out at 120,000 cases. That's 2% of their population and that will take months.

The US has averaged a 35% reported increase in cases each day for the last two weeks. These rates of increase will not continue for another month. Also, when we talk about the US we have to understand that there is a rate of infection in New York that is 20X higher than the average of all other states. It skews the data as does West Virginia with 7 cases. I'm not saying there aren't issues. Michigan looks troubling. But please don't post this sort of hair-on-fire nonsense here.

You are right, it is conjecture, but that is all we have, since there are so many variables. But here's what I see:

1) yes average rate of daily increase for the last 2 weeks is 35%. But it was about 30% for the first 10 days of that, and more like 43% for the last 4 days, probably due to the increase (finally!) in testing availability.

2) if you calculate based on 35%, assuming the current case count of 27,000 is accurate, then we are at 100 million on April 18.

3) but it is known that the current case count is deceptively low because of unavailability of testing. Expert estimates are that true U.S. cases are somewhere in the ball park of 100,000. If you adjust for that, and assume 35% from there, we get to 100 million on April 12, 3 weeks from now, if it doesn't slow down at all.

4) Of course it will slow down. I believe just not enough. Goodness there are still governors making light of the situation, as are many citizens. Kids on spring break shrugging it off. My little burg just closed its parks yesterday. The day before my wife and I were out on a stroll, being very careful, when we came upon a park full of cars, more streaming in, with 40 kids out on the field playing soccer and parents just milling around like it was just another game. Only 1 in 5 Americans lives in a place where the government has ordered a complete lockdown. So, my personal conjecture is almost certainly 100,000,000 by the end of April, and probably by mid April. I hope I'm wrong.

5) But whether we hit 100.000,000 that fast or not, we are still screwed bigly. The hospitals are already running out of protective gear, and we don't have anywhere near enough beds or ventilators for the onslaught that is coming.

[Southernguy]

Re: the strong usd

An update from Toma Pueyo: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: the strong usd


A 6 month gold chart

Scale on vertical axis makes this look worse than it is.
None the less, gold is down more than 10 pct

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

A 6 month gold chart

Scale on vertical axis makes this look worse than it is.
None the less, gold is down more than 10 pct

you mean 10% down from its spike panic high?
you mean it is all the way back to where it was in early oct '19??!!!
only 200 points higher than the 5 years from 2013-2018?
catastrophe!

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

A 6 month gold chart

Scale on vertical axis makes this look worse than it is.
None the less, gold is down more than 10 pct

Liquidation phase. Margin calls. Sell whatever still has a bid.
That's why this thread is about "the strong US$"

[jpatter666]

Re: the strong usd

Liquidation phase. Margin calls. Sell whatever still has a bid.
That's why this thread is about "the strong US$"

I agree. I know EJ has negative views about gold miners and certainly that view has been justified over the past decade, but I wonder if the tides are preparing to change.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

I agree. I know EJ has negative views about gold miners and certainly that view has been justified over the past decade, but I wonder if the tides are preparing to change.

By the time this is done I don't think it'll be difficult to build an entire portfolio of quality companies across most of the economy. Deep value looks to finally be making a return.

[Southernguy]

Re: the strong usd

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

If you are inclined to buy gold mining stock I would wait a bit. Check back in July.