the strong usd

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

What could be more dumb than continuing to fight the 2016 election while our house is on fire?

At a time such as this, what could be less thoughtful than stoking rancor and division among us with more ad-hominem attacks against fellow iTulipers when we are each struggling together to make sense of a rapidly evolving situation that threatens to unravel everything we've worked for and hold dear?

What sort of a response is it to actively undermine confidence in authority when everywhere it is grasping to keep up with an unprecedented emergency?

And what do we make of people who at a time of maximum vulnerability choose to defend the Chinese Communist Party and attack their own nation by advancing a CCP narrative that it is the exemplar of how to handle this crisis when in reality it was its early action and inaction that led to the virus spreading around the globe?

A plain reading of the events clearly show that if not for the usual CCP obsession with face-saving and maintaining the appearance of infallibility, if not for their refusal to abide by international public health norms by their secrecy and manipulation of case data, if not for their silencing of front-line doctors at the start of the outbreak, this would not have escalated to the point the world finds itself today.

The CCP is responsible for all of this.

If the Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited to Wuhan. It was the CCP's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus in the initial weeks of the outbreak that has laid the world low. And now, in their usual style, they are attempting to lay blame on "foreign devils" with charges that this was the result of some American scheme.

Not surprisingly, the same fifth-columinsts who sold out their fellow Americans by fellating the Chinese economically are now all too eager to help spread CCP propaganda and further divide and dispirit us.

While not at all hilarious, that sort of behavior and the attitude underlying it is pretty horrifying. And not at all unexpected.

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

The mortality rate of COVID 19 without adequate health care for serioulsy ill patients is no less than 5% (reportedly 3-4% when such people can go to an ICU). Let it spread freely and no less than 50% would be infected. For a country the size of USA (300 plus millions) it's no less than 7.5 million dead. For the whole world would be 100 million dead. I think these numbers erre on the conservative side.
Should we take them?
That said economy would be much less affected.
The above numbers don't take into account how many would die because healthcare systems would be more severely overwhelmed than they are today. People with other patologies would not be treated.

Again it is worthwhile taking the BBC lunchtime news today where they tell us that almost everyone will, at worst, suffer a mild case of the disease; that 4% will need hospital treatment. So now, out of every 1,000, that have caught the disease, 40 will be hospitalised. So, let us take that 40 and see where we are after 5% of those in hospital die. That gives us 2. so now we take that number of 2 deaths out of every thousand, which gives us a death rate of 0.2%.

Now, I am not trying to say you are wrong; but I do think it important to follow the actual figures. No one is saying every individual hospitalised will die; so where are the figures you quote coming from?

Again, I had, (as others have also reported), exactly the symptoms we are told categorised as Coronavirus over last Christmas. Have I already caught and responded to my home treatment?

It is my opinion, (i agree which you do not agree with), that this is a classic over hyped disaster message from an industry that will profit from the hype; while taking no regard whatsoever for the harm their "message" will do to the overall economy of the planet. That, when all is said and done; we may discover that it was indeed a hyped message for profit. Please, everyone; think about that.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

Currently about 165 countries in the world have reported being infected. All but one got the virus from somewhere outside their country.

The one exception is China. Which incubated this virus, exported it to the rest of us and lied about it as long as they could get away with it.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

The mortality rate of COVID 19 without adequate health care for serioulsy ill patients is no less than 5% (reportedly 3-4% when such people can go to an ICU). Let it spread freely and no less than 50% would be infected. For a country the size of USA (300 plus millions) it's no less than 7.5 million dead. For the whole world would be 100 million dead. I think these numbers erre on the conservative side.
Should we take them?
That said economy would be much less affected.
The above numbers don't take into account how many would die because healthcare systems would be more severely overwhelmed than they are today. People with other patologies would not be treated.

I needed a laugh to start the day.

This sort of projection is analogous to forecasts of Vancouver housing "going up forever", or the "new economy" taking over everything in 1999, or the entire world going dark on Y2K Day.

There's nothing more dangerous than a forecast made with a ruler and grease pencil, drawing a straight line. Lazy, sensationalist forecasting at its best.

It assumes we humans are going to sit on our hands and take absolutely no action whatsoever, and just let events overtake us - hence projecting the worst possible, but entirely unlikely outcome. It is just not human nature to "do nothing", as we have demonstrated throughout human history.

Southernguy, this debate isn't about a) doing nothing, vs b) locking down the entire global economy.
It's trying to question the real need and efficacy of the existing policies and actions, which really is locking down the entire world indiscriminately.

The outcomes, including the very significant and long lasting negative ones, from many of the policy decisions and implementations, worldwide, are now likely to remain in place for many, many young people for years, indeed decades to come.

As I posted before, we Boomers (who control the political system now) are potentially destroying the lives of the much less vulnerable younger cohort in order to improve the ability to save the lives of our 80+ year old grandparents in nursing homes.

Edit added: Here's some views from Nobel prize laureate, biophysicist Michael Levitt:

"...Levitt has risen to prominence in recent weeks thanks to his successful forecast of the slowdown in the rate of infection in mainland China last month. By looking at statistics emerging on the number of people infected and the number of deaths, Levitt identified a bounded growth pattern, showing that instead of the rate of infection increasing exponentially, it started to tail off.

An American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel Prize for chemistry, Levitt predicted earlier this week that there will be no new infections in China by the end of March...

...Stressing that it is almost impossible to make comparisons country to country, because each government is taking a different approach to how they record cases, he said that, "South Korean tests are 10 times more sensitive than in Italy. If Italy measured cases like Korea, there would have been 10 times more cases."

Instead, the best way to evaluate the figures was through the number of deaths reported, he said...

...It was through looking at the death statistics emerging from China that he was able to map the coronavirus's slowdown, and he has applied that technique to other countries. South Korea is already in the slow-down phase, he said, and Italy is nearing the same point.

"Italy is already half way through the disease," he told Reshet Bet. "There has been a decrease in growth in the number of deaths in Italy in the past 2-3 days."

To date there have been 31,506 cases recorded in Italy, according to John Hopkins University, of which 2,503 have resulted in death, and 2,941 people have recovered.

"To put things in proportion, the number of deaths of coronavirus in Italy is 10% of the number of deaths of influenza in the country between 2016-2017," Levitt said..."

Additional Edit added. Just out:

The coronavirus pandemic began in China. Today, it reported no new local infections for the first time

By Ben Westcott and Shanshan Wang, CNN
Updated 11:11 AM ET, Thu March 19, 2020


Hong Kong (CNN)China has reported no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases for the first time since the pandemic began, marking a major turning point in the global battle to contain Covid-19.

At a news conference on Thursday morning, officials from China's National Health Commission announced there had been just 34 new cases in the past 24 hours -- all imported from overseas -- and eight new deaths, all in Hubei, the province where the virus was first identified. There were there no new reported cases in Hubei at all on Wednesday...

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

nice to read something positive. remember, though, that to the degree that we succeed in slowing the spread of the virus, we also delay its peak.

[shiny!]

Re: the strong usd

^{Potential cure:}

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19

Accueil

18 mars 2020

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an openlabel non-randomized clinical trial

pdf article to download: Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA


Percentage of patients with PCR-positive nasopharyngeal samples from inclusion to day6 post-inclusion in COVID-19 patients treated
with hydroxychloroquine only, in COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithomycin combination, and in COVID-19 control
patients.


Please cite this work as Gautret et al. (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID‐19: results of an open‐label non‐randomized clinical trial. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents – In Press 17 March 2020 – DOI : 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

Our "partners and friends" the Chinese have just threatened us with nuclear war, because that would be the net effect of using an EMP weapon against our assets in the South China Sea. Not to mention it would destroy the electrical infrastructure of any country that happened to be in effective range of this EMP weapon.

To counter US’ repeated trespasses into Chinese territorial waters, the Chinese military has the option of using new approaches, including the deployment of electromagnetic weapons, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and commentator, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Firing at US warships is not a good choice unless the US fires first, and that would result in the start of a China-US military conflict, Song said, noting that bumping into US ships might also not be a good counter, as lessons have been learned from the Black Sea bumping incident between the Soviet Union and US in 1988.

But the use of electromagnetic weapons, including low-energy laser devices, could be viable, as they can temporarily paralyze US ships’ weapon and control systems without visible conflict but can send a strong warning, according to Song.

Electromagnetic weapons can emit electromagnetic waves that can potentially jam electronic devices of target vessels and will not cause casualties, military observers said.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1182886.shtml

These people need to be isolated for the rogues they are. More than a threat to regional stability, the CCP's handling of COVID-19 has show their willingness to take down the whole world in order to maintain control over their people.

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

nice to read something positive. remember, though, that to the degree that we succeed in slowing the spread of the virus, we also delay its peak.

Doctor you know we need to delay the peak for as long as possible to allow our scientists time to understand the virus and design and test vaccines. One or more of which will assist our immunity.

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

Doctor you know we need to delay the peak for as long as possible to allow our scientists time to understand the virus and design and test vaccines. One or more of which will assist our immunity.

Being someone that has become aware that I may well have caught the virus during Christmas, (am not alone in that thought), it bears remembering that catching it naturally, provides the best defence. Then there is the thinking that as with all disease, we may, if we wish, follow the teachings of those that have set out to allow everyone to do what is necessary, to place their overall health where they carry natural resistance to such a virus; where all I can do is recommend such as this advice. https://www.mercola.com/coronavirus-...ent=contenttop

[bpr]

Re: the strong usd

Doctor you know we need to delay the peak for as long as possible to allow our scientists time to understand the virus and design and test vaccines. One or more of which will assist our immunity.

...and to allow our hospitals to be able to deal with the volume of rolling cases they will have. One million cases stretched out over twelve weeks will be much more manageable than one million in a month.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

Doctor you know we need to delay the peak for as long as possible to allow our scientists time to understand the virus and design and test vaccines. One or more of which will assist our immunity.

of course. my comment was a reminder to anyone expecting this period to last only weeks, instead of months, and to those who expect a quick, v shaped recovery.


------------------
edit: also, spreading out the caseload, even in the absence of advances in treatment or a vaccine, reduces the odds of overwhelming healthcare resources

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

Sort of "L" shape, with a little "Dead Cat bounce" in it............

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

I want to reinforce or restate this point. This "flatten the curve" meme is become a battle cry of the new "war". I realize that projections are inherently flawed but we have to go on something. Eric Townsend did an entire hour long episode on the Imperial College study. The thrust of that podcast was that the study didn't say anything new but that the charts communicated so effectively that world governments are using the study as a play book for what to do. So what exactly does the study say?

We have this article from the New York Times that
has this chart in it:


So the idea is we do some Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and everybody stays alive and happy. Is that what the paper says? Pretty much not at all. What the paper actually says is that IF we follow the total lock-down policy as currently practiced in France and Italy then the eventually hospital apocalypse will just be postponed a few months until about November or so resulting in mass die offs, civil unrest etc. This is the relevant chart:


The paper proposes a "compromise" that consists of a series of rolling lock-downs lasting a total of two years. Each "parole" period corresponds with a overload of the healthcare system where doctors and nurses with inadequate protective gear are worked around the clock until they drop and any patient over 65 is sent home to die ( this is not an exaggeration. This is actually happening right now in Italy). This is the relevant chart:


Just a reminder, these policies are more or less the official positions of the British and American governments as near as I can tell.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

what's left out in these scenarios is the development of treatments which will reduce icu loads. in the absence of good evidence about a preferred treatment there are many treatment protocols being followed around the country. some of those protocols appear to be producing results- shortening the duration and reducing the severity of the illness. so far all we have are a bunch of anecdotes, and the plural of anecdote is not data. but i would expect that within a few months there will be a handful of preferred protocols, and that will be a game changer. the spread of the virus will not be so threatening if we have effective treatments for those who get severely ill, and so the isolation/distancing/quarantines will be able to be relaxed.

a vaccine may be 12-18 months out, but treatment will be clarified a lot sooner than that.

also just read that david ho of columbia, inventor of triple drug regimen for hiv, says he's developed a rapid covid-19 antibody test awaiting fda approval. labs all around the world are moving fast. the clinical studies will take some time though, weeks to months.

[peakishmael]

Re: the strong usd

what's left out in these scenarios is the development of treatments which will reduce icu loads. in the absence of good evidence about a preferred treatment there are many treatment protocols being followed around the country. some of those protocols appear to be producing results- shortening the duration and reducing the severity of the illness. so far all we have are a bunch of anecdotes, and the plural of anecdote is not data. but i would expect that within a few months there will be a handful of preferred protocols, and that will be a game changer. the spread of the virus will not be so threatening if we have effective treatments for those who get severely ill, and so the isolation/distancing/quarantines will be able to be relaxed.

a vaccine may be 12-18 months out, but treatment will be clarified a lot sooner than that.

also just read that david ho of columbia, inventor of triple drug regimen for hiv, says he's developed a rapid covid-19 antibody test awaiting fda approval. labs all around the world are moving fast. the clinical studies will take some time though, weeks to months.

But we don't have that much time. We in the US will have 100 million cases by mid April, more or less.