the strong usd

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

Dollar going down in 2020? This is Luke Gromen's thesis.

The Most Crowded Trade

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4294621-crowded-trade

i follow both gromen and brent johnson, the latter thinking that the dollar has a lot more upside ahead of it. i think the dollar goes up more first, then ultimately must come down, a lot. timing is beyond me.

also we have to distinguish the dollar's value vs other pieces of paper, vs its value vs stuff. we KNOW that it's got to lose a lot of buying power, hopefully slowly over an extended period of time.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

I don't see the US$ exchange rate declining until the capital flows reverse.

Today money is trying to get out of mainland China and now Hong Kong. Capital is trying to get out of the Middle East. Capital is trying to get out of South America. Capital has even been flowing slowly out of the Euro currency block, seeking a +ve yield.

This US$ trend may run a lot longer than we imagine it could.

[touchring]

Re: the strong usd

I don't see the US$ exchange rate declining until the capital flows reverse.

Today money is trying to get out of mainland China and now Hong Kong. Capital is trying to get out of the Middle East. Capital is trying to get out of South America. Capital has even been flowing slowly out of the Euro currency block, seeking a +ve yield.

This US$ trend may run a lot longer than we imagine it could.

The dollar is rising but very slowly. I wonder if there's going to be a huge spike?

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

Ka-boom?

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

The dollar is rising but very slowly...

This is the "endless ka" I referred to earlier.
The inexorable, slow, steady deflationary influence on the rest of the world from a persistently strong US$.

I don't sense we have the same level of international cooperation as we did in the mid-80s to execute another Plaza Accord at this time.

The latest discussions to break this effect and try to create inflation revolve around MMT and fiscal stimulus policies. Even the Germans are now contemplating the latter, given "whatever it takes" hasn't been quite enough.

And the Democrats are making noises about taxing capital inflows to the USA.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

Sadly the collapse is coming too late, Brybrook meadow where I used to play as a child is now a F**king building site!

Every where in my old home town houses are going up.........if this was real demand I wouldn't mind.

They getting paid to build (crap build) homes that I think there be little demand for.............at that point they decide to ship in a vast new number people from overseas.

Assh0les

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...rk-schlesinger

[Thailandnotes]

Re: the strong usd

What is the fundamental argument against a variable tax on capital inflows?
https://carnegieendowment.org/chinaf...lmarkets/79641

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...rk-schlesinger

monetary policy loses potency as debt levels rise and rates sink. the global economy is saturated in debt.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

monetary policy loses potency as debt levels rise and rates sink. the global economy is saturated in debt.

Isn't this the primary reason there is a desperate need to inflate the US$?

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

yes, absolutely. and pretty much every other currency as well.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

u.s. dutch disease - commodity = usd

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/03/...Dutch-disease/

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

The Fed has a "Bomb 20" on its hands.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

https://www.theguardian.com/business...lina-georgieva
Mixed messages

[Chomsky]

Re: the strong usd

i follow both gromen and brent johnson, the latter thinking that the dollar has a lot more upside ahead of it. i think the dollar goes up more first, then ultimately must come down, a lot. timing is beyond me.

also we have to distinguish the dollar's value vs other pieces of paper, vs its value vs stuff. we KNOW that it's got to lose a lot of buying power, hopefully slowly over an extended period of time.

New video with Brent Johnson:

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/..._hsmi=77871517