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  • Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080110/wall_street.html

    AP
    Stocks Rise on Bernanke Comments
    Thursday January 10, 12:44 pm ET
    By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
    Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates; Indexes Come Off Highs

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street turned around and rose Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke soothed investors by stating that the central bank is ready to lower interest rates to shore up the economy.
    The Dow Jones industrial average initially jumped more than 100 points on Bernanke's comments but soon came off its highs, perhaps because investors realize that it will take more than rate cuts to restore the economy's upward momentum. Still, Bernanke's comments reassured a market that fell badly since the start of the year amid growing evidence that the economy is weakening.

    The Fed chief said the central bank is prepared to act aggressively to rescue a weakening economy.

    "We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks," he said.

    Jim Herrick, manager of equity trading at Baird & Co., said, "We're seeing this pop here, but I think it's temporary."

    He added that many investors have been betting for some time that the Fed will lower rates by a half-point at their next meeting. "There's still subprime issues. We still have concerns about earnings, and the mortgage market."
    Investors were also likely still mindful of a profit warning Thursday from Capital One Financial Corp. The credit card issuer warned that its 2007 profit will fall short of expectations because of increased loan delinquencies and additions to its legal reserves in the fourth quarter.

    In midday trading, the Dow, which had been down more than 100 points in early trading, rose 68.77, or 0.54 percent, to 12,804.08.

    Broader stock indicators rose after Bernanke's comments but also backtracked. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 2.54, or 0.18 percent, to 1,411.67, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 3.06, or 0.12 percent, to 2,471.49.

    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 828.6 million shares.

    Bond prices showed little movement following Bernanke's comments. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, stood unchanged at 3.83 percent from late Wednesday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

    New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com

    Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
    I received these charts and comments anonymously:

    desperate consumers request commercial banks to manufacture money...

    That money floods into the economy and and then eventually floods into the bond markets...

    The more bonds that are bought cause the price of bonds to be bid up and yields down...

    and when consumers become exausted they slow their requests for money to be manufactured

    Then bonds stop being bid up and begin being sold off/bid down and yield rise...

    Depending upon the supply of bonds...more demand than supply...and bonds get bid up and yields down while less demand than supply...bonds get bid down and yields up...

    It's a cycle...desperation...exaustion desperation...etc...a wave...

    The FED does not raise or lower rates...the market composed of consumers dictate whether rates rise or drop...The Federal funds and discount rates follow the market...not the other way around.

    That is how the system operates...It's a free market...or unfixed market

    In an unfree or fixed system interest rates are set and do not rise or fall unless the authorities raise or lower them...

    The FED does not raise or lower rates...the short term bond markets are where the rates are set...The FED just follows along...It's been like this forever...The belief that the FED sets rates is false.

    because if the FED had the power to set rates...The FED would have set them in 1913 and been done with it.

    The Market sets rates...The FED follows along...

    Short term rates higher than long term rates has preceded all the recessions in the USA...the past 40 years according to this chart...

    Rates in the USA have been making lower lows and lower highs in the USA the past 30 years searching for voulme...

    Once the search for voulme to support yields has to drop below zero...It's game over for the Global financial system...

    Since once the zero barrier is hit there is no where for rates to go except up...

    It's taken lower and lower rates to escape the last two recessions...

    Federal Funds hit 3% before escaping the 1991 recession and 1% before escaping the 2001 recession.

    This recession...FEDERAL FUNDS will have to go lower than 1% in search of supporting volume

  • #2
    Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

    I was thinking about this this morning. The Federal Funds Rate is now at 4.25%. The expectation is it will be lowered to 3.75 on Jan 30. That would leave 15 possible .25% drops, fewer if they drop by more.

    What happens if this keeps dragging out longer than the FED can keep lowering rates? Are they stuck at 0%, with no further remedy?

    I remember reading recently (I think in one of EJ's commentaries, re Japan) that Paul Krugman and others had suggested going into negative interest rates, effectively paying people to borrow money. Is that a possibility? (Show me where to sign up if it happens!) If so, how would that play out?

    Fascinating stuff.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

      Andreucchio,

      I've read the Krugman commentary, but I believe he is really referring to negative real interest rates.

      Given 'normal' price inflation due to productivity increases and population growth, there is a theoretical interest rate which yields a neutral real interest rate.

      This rate depends on the economist, but the consensus is that it is around 3% to 3.75%.

      Thus a Fed funds rate below these numbers would yield negative real interest rates; effectively subsidizing borrowers.

      However, an actual negative interest rate is not something I believe can happen - in this case actual cash flows out of the lender.

      This screws up capital base, and I don't see that happening when banks are already undercapitalized.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

        Great anaysis. On Ben's seppch, so far DOW up 0.55% and gold up 2%.
        Ed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

          The stock market lady on CNN just said (paraphrasing): There's more to avoiding a recession than rate cuts. We need to get consumers spending money and that means looser credit standards.

          No mention of wages, salaries, unemployment or the dollar thrown under the bus. Apparently current wisdom holds that more debt is what Americans need. Using an analogy I have made before, it's like a person who insists on taking cold medicine for symptomatic releif while continuing to live an unhealthy lifestyle and infecting others. Most of the time you can ride it out but once in a while you end up fainting in the middle of Wal-Mart. Then you're forced to do what you should have done in the first place: take a break and get healthy.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

            Originally posted by jimmygu3 View Post
            The stock market lady on CNN just said (paraphrasing): There's more to avoiding a recession than rate cuts. We need to get consumers spending money and that means looser credit standards.

            No mention of wages, salaries, unemployment or the dollar thrown under the bus. Apparently current wisdom holds that more debt is what Americans need. Using an analogy I have made before, it's like a person who insists on taking cold medicine for symptomatic releif while continuing to live an unhealthy lifestyle and infecting others. Most of the time you can ride it out but once in a while you end up fainting in the middle of Wal-Mart. Then you're forced to do what you should have done in the first place: take a break and get healthy.

            What we need is a recession. We need an enema to clear out the foulness within the system, and recession may = an enema.

            Edit: for "stock market lady" didn't you mean bobble-head, or should it be bubble-head?
            Jim 69 y/o

            "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

            Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

            Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

              Originally posted by FRED View Post
              Great anaysis. On Ben's seppch, so far DOW up 0.55% and gold up 2%.
              What's a "seppch"?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

                Wouldn't 0% and stuck in recession be about the point where the Fed would start doing some of the extraordinary things that EJ's posted about in the past?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

                  Seppaku.

                  No? Ok, how about speech?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Stocks Rise After Bernanke Says Fed Is Ready to Lower Rates

                    Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
                    Wouldn't 0% and stuck in recession be about the point where the Fed would start doing some of the extraordinary things that EJ's posted about in the past?
                    it isn't just Fed policy it's also fiscal policy...Bush is already making noises about helicopter drops...expect checks to be mailed to every 'Murican...

                    And then there are the bailouts of the GSEs and banking system...only indirectly affecting the Fed.

                    Mish is right on one point. Credit policy can only do so much to avert a deflationary collapse. Money that is "printed" can be used to just pay back debts which is deflationary.

                    However...there is I think no chance of such a collapse IMHO...because fiscal policy will avert it if nothing else.

                    Housing prices down
                    Food prices up
                    Energy prices up
                    Everything else costs more

                    and:
                    Wages don't keep up
                    Standard of living falls
                    Spending falls sharply in nominal and real terms, regardless

                    Comment

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