Anyone watching the emerging markets?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

"Authoritarian capitalism" as I call it, has been on a rapid rise in the last 20 years. "Authoritarian capitalism" is basically a dictatorship (could be a person or a party) that runs the country like a private business. It is a powerful and dangerous force, as the state welds significant financial power, and given that it is also a government, significant political and military power.

Over time, power corrupts and the government starts to behave like a dangerous mafia, posing a danger even to their own citizens, as we are seeing happening in recent times. The real danger comes when authoritarian capitalism starts to behave like fascism.

Would it be more accurate to categorise it into two groups?

1)Authoritarian Capitalism(China/Russia/Vietnam) Singapore as well perhaps?

2)Corporate Cronyism/Corrupt Capitalism(US led by a country mile)

There are clear distinctions between the two aren’t there?

[touchring]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Would it be more accurate to categorise it into two groups?

1)Authoritarian Capitalism(China/Russia/Vietnam) Singapore as well perhaps?

2)Corporate Cronyism/Corrupt Capitalism(US led by a country mile)

There are clear distinctions between the two aren’t there?

Yes, of course they are different. The difference is in the political system. An authoritarian state is one in which only 1 party or 1 person/family rules (in increasing order of totalitarianism, a dictatorship being the most totalitarian). The other parties or people are either persecuted or restricted by laws passed by the ruler(s).

But I'm not sure if Russia and Vietnam can be considered capitalist countries though. To be a capitalist country, you must have financial power and have wealth.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Strong dollar + interest rate increases + deep debts + dollar denominated debts are going to do some funny things.

Turkey looks ready to pop. Has for a while.


Meanwhile, Brazil and others in SA aren't looking as bad, but not so great either:

Looks like Turkey popped. That was a pretty safe little bet.

[touchring]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Erodogan has gone nuts. Plus incompetency parrelleled only by Mao.

Why bother over a useless pastor?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

All too true. There are two pastors in the crazy story - the Turkish Islamic one Erdogan wants to hang, now living in the US; and the American evangelical one Erdogan arrested and hopes to trade for the other. And now the US has doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum to try to force Erdogan to let the pastor go free.

The Turkish lira was already collapsing, now it gets this shove. Looks like a few large European banks are exposed to the Turkish credit crisis, the worst case would slice perhaps 6% from profits at those banks next year. Erdogan's latest fix is to put his unqualified son-in-law in charge of the central bank. What could possibly go wrong?

[Techdread]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Erodogan has gone nuts. Plus incompetency parrelleled only by Mao.

Why bother over a useless pastor?

Not useless, he can blame the economic mess on Foreigners (The Americans)

[touchring]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Not useless, he can blame the economic mess on Foreigners (The Americans)

One of the assumption is that people living in an autocracy are idiots and mindless robots. This is not true, even in North Korea, the most perfect autocracy in the world's history, everyone has their own opinion, it's just that no one dares to talk about openly - possibly even with their own family members.

If Ergodan wants to put the blame on the Americans, then he better do it all the way and screw up the economy so badly until no one even has the money or strength to do a real coup. Venuzuela and North Korea shows that beating up the country the currency becomes worthless and better still famine happens is the best way to retain power.

[Techdread]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Autocracy has nothing to do with it, See Trumps win, blame Foreigners for jobs going abroad, and keep those pesky Latino's out.

I just think this spat other a preacher will help him more than harm him, that economy was on watch with global interest rates on the rise.

[touchring]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Autocracy has nothing to do with it, See Trumps win, blame Foreigners for jobs going abroad, and keep those pesky Latino's out.

I just think this spat other a preacher will help him more than harm him, that economy was on watch with global interest rates on the rise.

One is a mad man pretending to be sane, while the other is a sane person pretending to be mad.

Absolute power can make a person go mad and mad people can pretend to be sane. Recently there was a case.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/27/a...ntl/index.html

Why the hell will anyone needs to keep $225M of handbags, cash and gold at home?

[vt]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

No one has been trying to keep Latinos out. No one is against immigration.

Everyone is for fair immigration that follows fair rules.

Latinos already make up 17% of the population. The problem is that the left has
been the one discriminating by letting in mostly those from Mexico and Central America,
and letting them bust in line ahead the the other 94% of the world's population.

This not only is illegal, it does not promote any kind of diversity. The left is especially
discriminating against Asians, which make up 60% of global population. Asians
are also being discriminated against by unfair quotas at our universities.

We are all immigrants in our history. This BS by the left has to be exposed and called out.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Strong dollar + interest rate increases + deep debts + dollar denominated debts are going to do some funny things.

Turkey looks ready to pop. Has for a while.


Meanwhile, Brazil and others in SA aren't looking as bad, but not so great either:

There goes Argentina. Pop. Pop.

[touchring]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

There goes Argentina. Pop. Pop.

I'm surprised that Turkey has held up much better than Argentina. Thought that Argentina had more resources?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

I'm surprised that Turkey has held up much better than Argentina. Thought that Argentina had more resources?

India's looking rough too. They have reserves to burn through. But record corporate debt. They jack up rates to try and protect the currency slide, and they put their corporate bond refis at risk. So slow movement and reserve burns are pretty much the go to move. ~$2bn/week for the past couple of months. Should have enough to carry them through the winter. Not sure how much longer if nothing changes.

[jk]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

if i'm not mistaken a majority of u.s. investment grade corporate debt is bbb - 1 step above junk. if any bbb's are downgraded, becoming junk, many mutual funds and etf's, defined as holding only investment grade paper, will be forced to liquidate their holdings. it is easy to imagine a snowballing process if the economy ever slows down. high yield [lately at record low spreads] will go first [like sub-prime] and the effect of that process on the economy will pull down most investment grade bonds.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Anyone watching the emerging markets?

Here's the picture from July. Truth is, with corporations as with individuals there's really the top 1% of companies than all the others, which have been increasingly turning to debt. The percentage that are rated exactly bbb is also kind of suspiciously convenient if you aren't the type to trust the full faith and honesty of the ratings agencies. But in the US, it's lumpy. Not all sectors are equal.