Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

[Adeptus]

So Trump cancels the Iran nuclear deal, and right around that time Iran and Israel start attacking each other in Syria . This can't be good, right?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...heights-israel
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/w...an-attack.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...=.2d13b4e1061e

[touchring]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

The US already is close to self-sufficiency for oil, and there's the massive Canadian oil sands.

In a world where your loss is my gain, Trump has probably let Israel lose.

[Mega]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

I wonder if we will see "Greater Israel" ?..............(Not anti-Israel btw)
Mike

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

The US already is close to self-sufficiency for oil, and there's the massive Canadian oil sands...

Here's a fifteen year chart of oil prices.

[touchring]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

Interesting gold vs oil price chart. Either oil is undervalued or gold is overvalued?

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/gold...al-correlation

Another chart for oil vs s&p

http://www.macrotrends.net/1453/crud...vs-the-s-p-500

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

Thanks touchring, those are pretty interesting. There is a third factor that might be in play, the value of the dollar.
Our Finster often reminds us that a price is really a ratio of dollars per barrel of oil or dollars per ounce of gold or dollars per pound of hamburger. If the dollar is going down, it might look like oil or gold (or hamburger) is going up.


For the chart of oil vs gold, I see a vertical shift in Q3 2014 where oil dropped relative to gold. After oil shifted down they follow the same trends again with that offset. My guess is that fracking and shale oil shifted oil down relative to gold, but otherwise they track and show us changes in the value of the dollar.

The other chart of oil vs S&P is similar - a shift down in the price of oil in Q3 2014, with good correlation after. Again I presume we are seeing shifts in the value of the dollar showing up in stock prices and oil prices, both rising and falling together.

The two charts together indicate that oil got suddenly cheaper in late 2014 inherently, and not because of changes in the dollar.

[jk]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

Interesting gold vs oil price chart. Either oil is undervalued or gold is overvalued?

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/gold...al-correlation

Another chart for oil vs s&p

http://www.macrotrends.net/1453/crud...vs-the-s-p-500

this chart of the gold-oil ratio, i.e. how many barrels can you buy with an oz of gold, is less impressive- it looks like current prices are within the normal trading range

http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold...storical-chart

[vt]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

When your people are threatened by a hostile adversary that wants to finish what Hitler started and is taking over neighboring states on your border and attacking you, why would any nation sit still?

The deal was never a treaty. The congress was against, heck even Schumer was opposed. The American people were certainly opposed.

https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/20/polit...ove/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/u...lear-deal.html

[touchring]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

this chart of the gold-oil ratio, i.e. how many barrels can you buy with an oz of gold, is less impressive- it looks like current prices are within the normal trading range

http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold...storical-chart

The ratio chart is better and shows that gold was undervalued (in terms of oil) between 2000-2008. So either gold is now fully valued or oil is undervalued?

[jk]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

The ratio chart is better and shows that gold was undervalued (in terms of oil) between 2000-2008. So either gold is now fully valued or oil is undervalued?

unfortunately both prices are highly manipulated, so i think the ratio is all that is important.

[touchring]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

unfortunately both prices are highly manipulated, so i think the ratio is all that is important.

The ratio of gold vs silver makes gold looks very overvalued or silver undervalued.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

The ratio of gold vs silver makes gold looks very overvalued or silver undervalued.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

The gold/silver ratio is a pretty interesting topic. Data is available for hundreds of years.
I think that the history before 1971 may not be of much use. Over that long history a price ratio of 12:1 or 16:1 was typical. But back then the price of gold in the world's reserve currency was usually fixed by either the US or UK, and silver was in common use as money. Neither is true any more.

Today's typical ratios around 60:1 may be the new normal. In his older articles and posts EJ would point out that gold is still money but silver is not -it's an industrial metal, and its price can be expected to rise and fall with the general economic activity that consumes it. Silver might be at it's fair market price at around $16/oz, more broadly between $15 and $20.

On that 100 year chart you can see the Hunt brothers nearly cornering the silver market in January 1980, driving the price up to the record of $49.45/oz and causing that sharp downward spike in the chart.

[vt]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

Hobson's choice for Iran:

https://www.iwp.edu/news_publication...hoice-for-iran

[jk]

Re: Iran & Israel proxy war in Syria :-/

Hobson's choice for Iran:

https://www.iwp.edu/news_publication...hoice-for-iran

how can i respect the author when he says al-quaida and isis - sunni radicals- were sponsored by iran? hezbollah, yes of course. but those others?