looking at the jobs numbers............

[Mega]

...is the us going to start lifting rates faster?
Mike

[dcarrigg]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

...is the us going to start lifting rates faster?
Mike

I've been wondering the same thing. Topline unemployment stat looks pretty good. But when you did deeper, it's not as pretty. A lot of the employment is part time or gig contractors--far fewer full-time jobs with benefits per capita than before the recession. And it's very geographically concentrated. Recent jobs boom is mostly West of the Mississippi, excluding MN and IA. East (except Nashville, Philly, and NYC) is not doing as well since Q3 2017.

[Mega]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

"They" need inflation................might they want wage growth to trigger it?
Mike

[dcarrigg]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

"They" need inflation................might they want wage growth to trigger it?
Mike

I think "they" only need power. And wage growth is the very last thing they'll allow, only under extreme pressure. Inflation, deflation, GDP, those are all a side-show. Real power is in relative wealth. Absolute wealth means functionally nothing but bragging rights once you get north of the first 9 figures. But the more desperate the plebs are, the more depraved things you can force them to do for money, and the more nasty ways they can be forced serve you on penalty of depravation of basic human needs.

[touchring]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

I've been wondering the same thing. Topline unemployment stat looks pretty good. But when you did deeper, it's not as pretty. A lot of the employment is part time or gig contractors--far fewer full-time jobs with benefits per capita than before the recession. And it's very geographically concentrated. Recent jobs boom is mostly West of the Mississippi, excluding MN and IA. East (except Nashville, Philly, and NYC) is not doing as well since Q3 2017.

Don't know about USA, but from what I've observed, due to automation, most of the jobs created recently are IT and automation related. By automation, it could be anything related to automation, building automation, factory automation, etc.

Bankers don't tell you this. They only tell you that you need cheap imports from countries with cheap labor.

The fact is that modern factories don't need workers. Everything is automated, even in China today many new factories are automated.

[dcarrigg]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

Don't know about USA, but from what I've observed, due to automation, most of the jobs created recently are IT and automation related. By automation, it could be anything related to automation, building automation, factory automation, etc.

Bankers don't tell you this. They only tell you that you need cheap imports from countries with cheap labor.

The fact is that modern factories don't need workers. Everything is automated, even in China today many new factories are automated.

Economy is very different here. For the past 20-30 years, most jobs created have been healthcare related. Bottom-rung leisure service jobs are next. Comparatively few programming/IT jobs, but they pay disproportionately well. Massive offshoring cut manufacturing employment more than in half.

So here's roughly how to think about it:

10 years ago we had about 14 million manufacturing jobs, now we have about 12--and much more of that is defense contractors than you'd probably expect.
10 years ago we had about 15 million healthcare jobs, now we have about 19.
10 years ago we had about 13 million leisure and hospitality jobs, now we have about 16.
10 years ago we had about 18 million business and professional jobs, now we have about 20.
Retail and government jobs stayed flat over 10 years at about 15 and 19 million each respectively.
Finance, wholesale and transportation also stayed flat at 8 million, 6 million, and 5 million respectively.


10 years ago we had about 3 million programming/IT jobs, now we only have about 2.5 million. We went from about 3 million to about 3.5 million educators. And agriculture went up from about 2 million to about 2.5 million. But self-employment dropped from about 9.5 million to about 8.5 million. Utilities and mining stayed flat at about 0.5 million each.

Basically, the super inefficient US healthcare system has been morphed into the jobs program of last resort.

[GRG55]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

Aren't we (me) aging Boomers demographic driving some of that health care jobs stat too?

I've had an extraordinarily healthy life. Until I turned 60. Now everything is starting to fall apart. I am scheduled later this month for my first surgery under general anesthetic since I was a kid and had my tonsils out. Two more rounds of other related surgery in July. I do not think I am alone.

[Mega]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

GRG
Very sorry to hear this, i expect everyone here will echo my best wishers & speedy recovery............
Mike/Liverpool

[BK]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

Healthcare job wages aren't what they use to be. I know two very bright people who transitioned to Nursing they had previously been employed in corporate executive role and programmer. Both went and got their RN to find the highest wage is $25/hour.

Big difference from ten years ago is when you get laid off from your high paying job you know have to either pay Cobra of $1,900 -$2,100 per month or opt for a $1,300- $1,600 Obama Care Insurance program (which has huge deductibles of $6000-$7000/person and $13,000/family).

You can't make this up.

[kriden]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

My daughter graduated from Nursing school last May. She is ADN and still working on her BSN. She was hired at $42 hr. (Around 76k year)
Telemetry Unit, Southern California. I wonder where these $25.00 hr nursing jobs are.

[seobook]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

Basically, the super inefficient US healthcare system has been morphed into the jobs program of last resort.

yup.

many of the jobs are make work junk like duplicating data entry & other non-patient administrative overhead



The New York Times went to far as publishing an article that repealing Obamacare "Could Threaten U.S. Job Engine"

Healthcare job growth hasn't led to better outcomes & in addition to the spiraling costs there's been a massive M&A fueled debt binge.

Aren't we (me) aging Boomers demographic driving some of that health care jobs stat too?

I've had an extraordinarily healthy life. Until I turned 60. Now everything is starting to fall apart. I am scheduled later this month for my first surgery under general anesthetic since I was a kid and had my tonsils out. Two more rounds of other related surgery in July. I do not think I am alone.

Get well soon. I love reading your thoughts & you seem like a great guy from the stuff you've typed here over the past few years.

I am a bit younger than you, but I have seemed to have had things come in waves with health stuff. Fine for a few years then sort of a what the heck happened. Then fine for few years, etc.

My daughter graduated from Nursing school last May. She is ADN and still working on her BSN. She was hired at $42 hr. (Around 76k year)
Telemetry Unit, Southern California. I wonder where these $25.00 hr nursing jobs are.

Doesn't the location end up playing a huge role in the wages in a profession like that? A person in the S.F. bay area with some experience can easily pull down 6 figures a year, but in rural Arkansas one could perhaps have a harder job where they get 1/2 the pay, simply because living costs are so much lower.

[dcarrigg]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

Aren't we (me) aging Boomers demographic driving some of that health care jobs stat too?

I've had an extraordinarily healthy life. Until I turned 60. Now everything is starting to fall apart. I am scheduled later this month for my first surgery under general anesthetic since I was a kid and had my tonsils out. Two more rounds of other related surgery in July. I do not think I am alone.

Some of it, sure. But the ratio of actual healthcare practitioners to healthcare workers is shrinking in the US. Only about 6 million of the 19 million employees now do anything related to a patient. Most are just shuffling paper or doing other support work. Seobook's post was pretty good at illustrating that.

Wishing you the best.

[BK]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

My data is from the Northeast - very well could be regional differences in Nursing demand and anecdotal data is not a trend.

[dcarrigg]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

My daughter graduated from Nursing school last May. She is ADN and still working on her BSN. She was hired at $42 hr. (Around 76k year)
Telemetry Unit, Southern California. I wonder where these $25.00 hr nursing jobs are.

Median national pay is $33.65 per hour for RNs. Half make less. And most of that half are new grads (experienced nurses obviously earn more).

The market near you in SoCal is paying particularly well. That said, the bottom 10% earn less than $23.40/hr and the top 10% earn more than $50.05/hr. So your daughter is probably earning more than 75% of nurses in the US. But BK's folks are earning less than 85% or so for nurses nationally. And there's your ~80% range for the profession.

Both are in the range. Obviously entry-jobs are going to be that bottom 20% or so, so BKs numbers don't sound implausible. And SoCal is often a higher-wage, higher-cost-of-living area that would explain starting someone at such an abnormally high wage.

[jk]

Re: looking at the jobs numbers............

1. a graph showing only physicians and admin staff leaves out the rapidly growing numbers of physician's assistants, advanced practice nurses and nurse practitioners, who act as physician extenders.

2. the admin staff growth is for the most part a reflection of our screwed up system, where insurance companies hire people to deny claims while health deliverers hire people to fight with the insurance companies. iirc about 25% of u.s. expenditures goes to this nonsense.

3. the electronic record has just driven up costs and not improved outcomes. this is because a. the electronic system is designed to generate the maximum bill, not to facilitate care, b. the electronic system makes it very easy to order more tests, c. systems don't talk to each other - e.g. yale-new haven hospital in ct and mount sinai hosp in ny both use a system called epic, but there is no possible communication between their systems, d. care itself is fragmented both locally and nationally- there are few standardized algorithms outside of established cancer protocols.

4. the cost of drugs is an enormous part of overall costs, and the medicare part d law, shepherded through the house by billy tauzin [then a rep from la. who soon resigned to become the multi-million reimbursed head of phrma- the drug industry lobbying group] forbade medicare - the single biggest payer for services- from negotiating drug prices. btw, trump just backed off from an earlier pledge to have medicare negotiate drug prices.