The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

June 2019:

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

GRG55 thanks so much for keeping this thread updated for over a year now.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

every time i see that graph i think about whether i want to buy an apartment in montreal. so far, no, but it sure looks to be a bargain, especially with a cheap loonie.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

every time i see that graph i think about whether i want to buy an apartment in montreal. so far, no, but it sure looks to be a bargain, especially with a cheap loonie.

I go every year. Compared to Boston or NYC, it's almost unconscionable how cheap some places are, and right downtown. And I enjoy the city. So as a place to go, I too am tempted.

But as an investment, I don't know. The language barrier just makes the market fundamentally different. Everyone in the world learns English and bids up prices. It's a liability for the middle class of English-speaking cities with subways etc. I really do think it's the language barrier that saved Quebec from the run-away prices.

Incidentally, I was also considering an intermediate buy. Old towns on this side like Malone, NY are in striking distance and you can snatch up houses there for under $10k. You can find some in relatively good condition for $30k. If you really want to spring and get a little closer, you can drop $75k right on the border for something a bit fancier. Puts you about 55 miles from Montreal. And the border crossing at Trout River is easy and quick. Super reasonable to have a night out and go back to your couple acres in the sticks after.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

montreal isn't quebec city. just about everyone is either an anglophone or bilingual.

closer, better located imo, just as cheap:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...29937920_zpid/

[dcarrigg]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Totally true. But the French language is a barrier to moving there, working there, and becoming a citizen if you know, say, Mandarin and English or Hindi and English or German and English, etc. I honestly think a good chunk of demand in English-speaking major metros comes because worldwide educated classes know English.

Montreal is absolutely fine to visit as an Anglophone. You'll have zero problems. It's different if you're trying to emigrate though.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

no language requirement for these:

The Quebec Entrepreneur Program could be a great fit for you if you have experience owning a business. In order to apply, you must have a business idea into which you are willing to invest at least CAD $200,000, or you have your business idea financed by one of Quebec’s designated business accelerators or business incubators.
The Quebec Investor Program is for heavy-hitting investors. If you have a personal net worth of at least CAD $2 million and you’re willing to invest at least CAD $1.2 million into Quebec, then you can apply for permanent residency through this stream.

in the u.s. at least these business investment for a green card deals are just waiting for applicants with money. they're usually big real estate deals, an individual invests $500,000, voila- you're an entrepreneur. i assume there are similar structures in canada. CAD $200k isn't a lot for someone looking to move to a place with rule-of-law and international flavor. of course it's not as quick a trip to/from asia as vancouver.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

MIDI has announced that Quebec Entrepreneur was accepting 60 new applications between the dates of August 15th, 2018 and March 31st, 2019. Stream one accepted 25 applications and stream two accepted 35 applications.

They're not offering huge numbers here. Quebec's just the hardest province to immigrate to as far as I'm aware.

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

They're not offering huge numbers here. Quebec's just the hardest province to immigrate to as far as I'm aware. [/FONT][/COLOR]

what's the status of chinese property owners in vancouver? any information or guesses? this is all relevant to the real estate as investment theory re montreal. my own passing thought was more a pied a terre, not an investment, but realistically i'd hardly ever have occasion to use it. maybe in an alternate universe....

[LazyBoy]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

no language requirement for these:

The Quebec Entrepreneur Program could be a great fit for you if you have experience owning a business. In order to apply, you must have a business idea into which you are willing to invest at least CAD $200,000, or you have your business idea financed by one of Quebec’s designated business accelerators or business incubators.
The Quebec Investor Program is for heavy-hitting investors. If you have a personal net worth of at least CAD $2 million and you’re willing to invest at least CAD $1.2 million into Quebec, then you can apply for permanent residency through this stream.

in the u.s. at least these business investment for a green card deals are just waiting for applicants with money. they're usually big real estate deals, an individual invests $500,000, voila- you're an entrepreneur. i assume there are similar structures in canada. CAD $200k isn't a lot for someone looking to move to a place with rule-of-law and international flavor. of course it's not as quick a trip to/from asia as vancouver.

Do these types of programs typically qualify the whole family, or just a single investor?

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Do these types of programs typically qualify the whole family, or just a single investor?

beats me. also i read a bit more and it sounded less available than i'd thought. but read up on it yourself, tell us what you think,

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

August data.

Mortgage rates in Canada have been falling for the past few months and are back close to historical lows. That seems to have kept a bid under housing in most markets.

We are now in the midst of a Federal election campaign (apparently the incumbent Prime Minister is going for the multicultural vote by running as a "black" candidate this time around! ). More importantly, the parties are trotting out the usual plethora of housing related policy incentives - easier to raid your retirement savings for first time purchasers, a loan program from the Federal govt that is repaid only on the future sale of said home, "affordable" housing funded by the Federal govt for low income households, expanding the CMHC balance sheet so more young people that can't really afford to buy a house can get into one with 5% down and 30 years of debt servitude to the banks (CMHC is a taxpayer backed mortgage insurance program to protect the banks - think of it as a permanent mini-TARP), and so forth. Every time these nitwits bring in these programs they goose the price of entry for everyone and make the problem worse. Canadians doing it to themselves...

[jk]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

every time i see this graph i think about whether i'd like a pied a terre in montreal.

[Mega]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Same here in Blighty, the market is TRYING to correct & EVERYTHING is being throw in to stop it!
I notice the FED having to add liquard-arty.....lots of it!

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Cheap money keeps it propped up. So far. The Federal election is tomorrow, and each of the Parties has its own housing policy proposals. The two major parties are proposing policies that will almost certainly prolong the insanity if either actually implements them after winning the election. Housing in Canada is ridiculously expensive. And destined to stay that way, with the assistance of our governments, it would appear.