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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
This is interesting: EXCLUSIVE: Secret police study finds crime networks could have laundered over $1 Billion through Vancouver homes in 2016
https://globalnews.ca/news/4658157/f...-police-study/Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
More detail. Start at 7min mark or so if interested. Upshot is that '86 expo puts Vancouver on the map. Hong Kong wealth flees there after '97 handover. Liberals come to power in '01 and see it. Make shell company real estate investing easier to spur money flow. Open casinos in '04. Casinos take big piles of cash no questions asked. NDP comes to power last year and new AG realizes no cases have been brought and a decade of obvious laundering had been going on. So casinos for cleaning small dollar street level dealing, real estate shells for moving big money, just like your link. Makes perfect sense. A huge part of economic inequality and real estate bubbles is always crime.Originally posted by kriden View Post
PS: For those of us to the south who had to throw all our romaine lettuce out again, get used to it. Recent FDA deregulation means nobody's inspecting the water, and they're gonna keep finding e-coli because they're using water with some percentage of cow dung in it now that nobody's watching. If the supermarkets and restaurants and health insurance companies take a hit, who cares? They usually can't trace it back to a single source, and by that time you already sold the lettuce and saved the money by not having a clean independent water supply. Deregulation in action, baby. Who knew?Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Overdue for an update from Brian Ripley. Data through November 2018. Dead cat bounce in Van? Maybe too early to tell. The Big Smoke (Toronto) looks to be holding up remarkably well. Maybe the Doug Ford effect?
Consumer Insolvency Filings Spike In Canada
12/10/2018 12:36 EST
British Columbia and P.E.I. led the way with jumps of roughly 20 per cent in insolvencies.
With rising interest rates putting financial pressure on households, Canada is seeing an increase in consumer insolvencies.
There were 11,641 consumer insolvencies in October of this year, up 9.2 per cent from a year earlier, according to data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy. The insolvency numbers include both bankruptcies and consumer proposals, an alternative to bankruptcy that has become popular in recent years.
It's the largest number of consumer insolvencies for the month since at least 2010...Last edited by GRG55; December 12, 2018, 01:14 AM.Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Vancouver was certainly Goin' Up. Now? Not so much.
But the late stage pop in condo and townhouse prices is pretty obvious - by that point they were the only things that anyone could "afford". And the BC Provincial Government goosed this late stage market with an utterly stupid incentive policy (the helicopter cash drop noted on the chart). As predicted it just sent the price of lower cost housing screaming higher.
A refresher here:
https://globalnews.ca/news/3130685/t...ed-by-experts/
"...Their plan is supposed to make it easier for first-time home buyers to enter B.C.’s hot housing market by using government funds to match down payments up to $37,500, or five per cent of the purchase price, for a maximum property value of $750,000. Clark says it’s an interest-free, 25-year loan with no payments due for the first five years...
...“It’s a pretty bad idea. It is counter-productive and if you give people more purchasing power, they will be able to bid up the prices of the homes that they’re looking at, and that price increase will eat up any benefit from the subsidy. The same people who were going to compete for a home at $500,000 are still going to be competing for that same unit, but at a higher price. They’re just going to compete away the benefit. The only people who gain are existing homeowners or developers who benefit from these higher prices.
“This is not going to improve affordability anywhere in the market and if anything will make it worse, for sure in the lower end and possibly creeping up above that $750,000 [cut-off price]. Different parts of the government’s policies really don’t fit together. They claim to want to promote affordability but they want higher prices. Well, higher prices are the opposite of affordability, so it just doesn’t fit together at all...
From Brian Ripley http://www.chpc.biz/
Last edited by GRG55; January 06, 2019, 09:42 PM.Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
It's surreal that this chart is real. Who 20 years ago predicted the wanton insanity displayed there?Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
vancouvergoin'up did, that's who. -= can't say if 20 yrs, but certainly 10.Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Yes he did. But I have to wonder if even he thought it would get as crazy as it did?Originally posted by jk View Post
This was one of his last posts on Dec 22 2010, so it would seem he did:And my response at the time:
Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View Post
Originally posted by GRG55 View PostOriginally posted by GRG55 View Post
Not sure if we will see those $20 million average home prices. But there's still another dozen years left in his forecast horizon.
Last edited by GRG55; January 06, 2019, 10:44 PM.Comment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Oh, and one other observation. For those who think the Vancouver housing bubble was the sole creation of a bunch of money laundering Chinese dudes, read the linked Global News article and have a good look at the 2017/18 pop in the red line and the blue line on the chart. That's Canadians doing it to their little beaver selves. No assistance from foreigners needed whatsoever.Originally posted by GRG55 View PostVancouver was certainly Goin' Up. Now? Not so much.
But the late stage pop in condo and townhouse prices is pretty obvious - by that point they were the only things that anyone could "afford". And the BC Provincial Government goosed this late stage market with an utterly stupid incentive policy (the helicopter cash drop noted on the chart). As predicted it just sent the price of lower cost housing screaming higher.
A refresher here:
https://globalnews.ca/news/3130685/t...ed-by-experts/"...Their plan is supposed to make it easier for first-time home buyers to enter B.C.’s hot housing market by using government funds to match down payments up to $37,500, or five per cent of the purchase price, for a maximum property value of $750,000. Clark says it’s an interest-free, 25-year loan with no payments due for the first five years...
...“It’s a pretty bad idea. It is counter-productive and if you give people more purchasing power, they will be able to bid up the prices of the homes that they’re looking at, and that price increase will eat up any benefit from the subsidy. The same people who were going to compete for a home at $500,000 are still going to be competing for that same unit, but at a higher price. They’re just going to compete away the benefit. The only people who gain are existing homeowners or developers who benefit from these higher prices.
“This is not going to improve affordability anywhere in the market and if anything will make it worse, for sure in the lower end and possibly creeping up above that $750,000 [cut-off price]. Different parts of the government’s policies really don’t fit together. They claim to want to promote affordability but they want higher prices. Well, higher prices are the opposite of affordability, so it just doesn’t fit together at all...
From Brian Ripley http://www.chpc.biz/
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
December data in. Vancouver and Toronto grinding down. Calgary palpably weaker - I live near there and one could actually feel the economy take another knock in 4rth Q last year. Edmonton, Ottawa and even Montreal SFD flat.
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Yes, that's what I sensed......in the last half of the year the lie that has been told since 2011 is coiming to an end & suddenly EVERYONE can see itComment
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
Feb data:
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
For sure Vancouver residents have pumped up the bubble to unimaginable levels. I live nearby and had co-workers in Vancouver, and that's all they could talk about for the past 5 years - literally every single lunch conversation included vancouver real estate euphoria talk. They would discuss how much paper gains they have and how idiotic anyone is who doesn't sign up for multiple mortgages. Even now, anecdotally, I hear people talk about how their entire family (mom+dad+grandparents+uncles) are all combining their savings to buy even more real estate. At least half my co-workers owned 2 properties. One guy, had as many as 5!
I don't think it was all pure speculation... $1B in Chinese laundered drug $$ probably helped things move along."For those who think the Vancouver housing bubble was the sole creation of a bunch of money laundering Chinese dudes, read the linked Global News article and have a good look at the 2017/18 pop in the red line and the blue line on the chart. That's Canadians doing it to their little beaver selves. No assistance from foreigners needed whatsoever."
"Secret police study finds crime networks could have laundered over $1B through Vancouver homes in 2016" (Nov 2018 article)
https://globalnews.ca/news/4658157/f...-police-study/Warning: Network Engineer talking economics!
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
March data. A confirmation of the downtrend seems to be forming slowly in the two most inflated markets
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Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble
May 2019 data. Mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks due to the Bank of Canada no longer raising interest rates (BoC is following the Federal Reserve lead, but never caught up with it during the rate rising cycle. And GDP in Canada showed almost zero annualized growth in 1st Q). That seems to have breathed new life into the FOMO real estate market in Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa in particular. Vancouver, not so much.
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