Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

What's up with the US auto market

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • What's up with the US auto market

    Ford's basically quitting the car business, and it looks like GM's right on their heels. Trucks and SUVs only now. Makes me think GAC's about to cross the Pacific for real this time. I had no doubt they'd get there eventually. If the Chinese state plans something, the Chinese state-owned auto manufacturer does it. So here's a piece of the overcapacity plan--start dumping heavy goods on the states. Never drove a GAC, so no comments on the quality. But I guess they're doing alright in Bahrain and Kuwait and a few other places. Curious to see them in the wild. Rumor's been around that they'll either do a partnership or a straight buyout of Fiat-Chrysler. They rejected a bid a few months back. But new plan looks like they want to be selling at least one model by Q4 2019, and they plan to do it through Chrysler dealerships. After turning down GAC, Marchionne went running to GM who told him they didn't want to buy the thing. And he promises to step down one way or the other by a year from now. Meanwhile they're reducing debt and trying to get cash positive by Q1 2019.

    Feels like a seismic shift is about to happen in the auto market. Rumbles are already out there. I'm not as worried about Tesla or super-cruise control. But if there ends up being a $16-18k state subsidized Chinese Camry killer, that's be a curious thing indeed. And the GAC-8 rear seat looks like a poor man's Rolls (with a 4-banger), which is a weird design choice, but I can see how it might be attractive if they drop it down to ~$25-28k and keep it cheeper than other full-sizes, even with the ostentatious interior. And GM's fastest growing auto is the all-Chinese-made Envision now.

    Have to say, I rented an early one of those Chinese Envisions, and I drove the hell out of it all over New England and Atlantic Canada, including up Mt. Washington, and I hated the thing, so did the better half. Just 100 ways to nag you or be super-annoying and uncomfortable to boot. It had every bell and whistle you can think of, but they all poked or prodded or dinged or flashed at you in a way that made the thing feel like they let Rube Goldberg rig the AV system at the planetarium laser show. Just total design failure. 2" protruding airbags in plastic adjustable seatbelt shoulder shuttle with sharp corners that jam anyone over 6' in the shoulder no matter how high you move it. Flashing star symbols in the side views as blindspot warnings that sort of flicker like a passing firefly more than make it obvious something's trying to warn you. Horrible touch screen navigation and digital speedometer that required the passenger reading the manual, at least 4 touch screen menus, and the driver to hit some buttons behind the wheel in order to switch the sucker from MPH to KPH. And then everything switches metric, and the clocks switch to military, which is not what I wanted, but whatever. Was much easier when they just drew both the MPH and KPH scales on the dash for you.

    What else? Oh, apparently to save gas, or pretend it's a hybrid? I don't know which, but the damned thing shuts off every time you stop. Red light? Engine shuts off. Stop sign? Off. Now, you hit the gas, it starts again, and you're good to go. But want to take one of those classic Massachusetts fast lefts into traffic off the stop line? No go. You can't start fast. It probably doubles the 0-60 time, because the starter has to turn over ever time you go again. Just a big long delay. So you have to wait until there's a super wide opening to go anywhere. What else? Want to make a bet how often you have to replace the starter in those suckers over 10 or 20 years? Lane keep assist is terrifying! and not the easiest thing to determine whether it's on or off. Why would you put the button smack in the middle of the car in front of the shifter and underneath the climate controls? So kids can push it and scare the shit out of you?! This is a thing like cruise control--nobody but the driver should have access to it ever, if you ask me. But they made it a black button, with no little LED indicator, that just looks kind of like this: /H/. Doesn't tell you anything. It's right next to a P button that you'd think might be some sort of emergency brake, but is a similar kind of monster. What do these buttons actually do? One makes the car beep at you and shakes your seat in different directions if you cross a white or yellow line on the road. The other does something similar for when you're parking. Of course, these are big honking buttons right in front of the shifter that are easy to hit if you put your phone or glasses there or just by accident fiddling with the temperature controls or whatever. And they don't do anything noticeable right away. Until you're up in north country and you decide to pass a slow truck or something. Then panic as the thing screams at you and shakes you. Not in a pleasing, "are you sure you want to do this?" way, but in a panicked, frenetic, "we're all gonna die!" sort of way. I can't believe that feature won't kill more people than it saves.

    Anyways, the thing was also underpowered with brakes the heated up pretty quickly and just generally uncomfortable to be in. Figured something that big would be good enough to catch a quick late afternoon nap after a long morning out at sea but before a long night of driving. I mean, it feels like 2 tons trying to get up those hills with its little 4 cylinder. So there ought to be room right? But no. Pretty much we couldn't sleep in it. Not even really in the back with the seats folded down. It's like they give you a almost a 4' by 4' square, which at least one of us should have been able to use on the diagonal, but with protrusions and uneven surfaces (almost fold flat--almost) that just make it hopeless. Lots of cheap, hard, grainy plastics and thin, rough, cheap carpet. Oh yeah, the back of the front seats has that too, so that kids can kick and scratch it and make that loud noise, I guess. Plus there's basically no cargo space. Way less than a trunk. I mean, this was basically a brand new $40k car, and I could only think, "Who in their right mind would buy this piece of crap?

    That was last year. This year? It's GM's fastest growing model. Sales are up from 14k last year to 41k this year and it's still growing; they did something like 6k last month. So what the hell do I know? Apparently there is a huge US market for overpriced, uncomfortable, underpowered, poorly-designed SUVs made in China. Apparently having a touchscreen system that syncs with Apple Play is more important to people with 40 grand to burn than having a car that doesn't suck...

  • #2
    Re: What's up with the US auto market

    Just for fun, let us imagine a point in time, where all those science fiction movies come to fruition, showing all vehicles driving through the atmosphere and from that point onwards; no one needs a road vehicle; what would GM and Ford be doing if they thought that possibility was about to arrive?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: What's up with the US auto market

      dcarrigg, have you checked to see if there were any major improvements made in the new model? it's hard to see how the vehicle you describe could sell so well. americans have always [or is it only used to?] really cared about their cars.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: What's up with the US auto market

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        dcarrigg, have you checked to see if there were any major improvements made in the new model? it's hard to see how the vehicle you describe could sell so well. americans have always [or is it only used to?] really cared about their cars.
        Yeah, the 2019 (that came out at the end of last summer) did get a redesign. Biggest difference is they made a bare-bones model with a Malibu engine and fewer bells and whistles for $32k, which is a much more reasonable price-point and probably made all the difference. They also updated the grill and supposedly put in more comfortable seats and a switch so you can turn off that stupid auto-off feature that shuts down the engine when you stop. Now the equivalent version is the Envision Premium, which is still going for a bit north of $40k and paired with a new transmission so they milk a few extra horses out.

        Probably actually is a better car than the 2017 version I had my hands on. At least maybe they fixed 2 or 3 of my complaints. Still, for what GM has managed to do with the rest of their lineup--even the Buick lineup--this thing was sorely out of place, and I bet it probably still is.

        The thing is, even if you drive a bare-bones Ford Edge, you'll see why I can't figure out how in the hell that Envision sucker sells. Somehow Ford manages to squeeze out almost 30 cubic feet more passenger space in a car about the same size, and you feel it straight away when you pop the hatch to toss some bags in the back or sit in it. The couple inches extra headroom are immediately welcome for me (I know this isn't a problem for everyone, but it's not like I'm an NBA player). Somehow they manage to get almost 50 more horsepower at lower RPMs with a smaller engine than the Buick at the same fuel economy. The handling just feels better. And it's under $30k. And it's not like GM can't do it. The Enclave will give the Explorer a run for its money if you look at their big brother models. Truth is the Envision is an SAIC car with a Buick logo on it. And I was not at all impressed.

        BUT--it did come standard with a ton of junk that I think maybe people other than me go for. Like all the extra buttons and screens and leather-on-one-side seats (which just look tacky as hell to me compared with a seat all upholstered in one material), or the extra beeping and shaking and dual climate control sort of stuff. You lose that with the base edge. But you gain about $12k, with which you could buy a used luxury car that gets all that stuff right.

        So that's why I'm curious about the GAC cars. I think it's really hard to get all the little things right. Tacit knowledge--Michael Polanyi and all that--"We know more than we can say." Looks to me like they're coming next year one way or the other, and they'll probably blow the standard price-points on midsize sedans and SUVs out of the water if what they've doing in other countries is any indication. But they also look like they're going for adding every little option possible--down to a 2-drink refrigerator on the armrest in the back seat of the GA-8. So they're packing it with little things that could go wrong, that's for sure.

        I'm just curious to see what happens. I mean, sometimes bad cars sell--a lot. Especially if they're cheap. We had a Chevy Vega and a Plymouth Reliant. They sold a million of those things...and the more recent Hyundai Excels were not good. I had a friend with one 20-some-odd years ago, and I remember we were up in Arlington somewhere with a steep hill, and two of us had to get out and push her and the thing up it because it didn't have the power...but they were cheap and sold a ton and got Hyundai a foothold. So who knows?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: What's up with the US auto market

          Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
          Just for fun, let us imagine a point in time, where all those science fiction movies come to fruition, showing all vehicles driving through the atmosphere and from that point onwards; no one needs a road vehicle; what would GM and Ford be doing if they thought that possibility was about to arrive?
          Probably not doubling down on trucks and SUVs. They're keeping the Mustang around too. Makes me start to wonder if Ford doesn't want to get out of 4-cylinder development for a while and just make big engines for muscly vehicles. Maybe just keep 1 around for the compact SUV and crossover. Right now they make a 1.5, a 1.6, a 2.0, a 3.0 (South America only) and a diesel. China taxes everything bigger than 1.5L displacement much higher, so the 1.5 is the newest addition to the lineup and probably the one they'll stick with. They manage to milk a respectable 181HP out of it.

          Meanwhile, they have new 2.7 and 3.0 V6s out and a brand new 3.5 they'll drop into the F-150 and the Expedition. They can probably save a hell of a lot of money if they just scrap the 1.6 and 2.0 4-cyl engine development and all the chassis/powertrain work related to them and the sedans they'd go in. I'm assuming they'll retire that old 3.5L duratech too.

          GM is a bit more all over the place. They've still got legacy varients of Saab, Opel, Daewoo and other engines floating around out there with anywhere from 3 to 8 cylinders. They were going to have to streamline their production at some point, I figure.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: What's up with the US auto market

            Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
            Probably not doubling down on trucks and SUVs. They're keeping the Mustang around too. Makes me start to wonder if Ford doesn't want to get out of 4-cylinder development for a while and just make big engines for muscly vehicles. Maybe just keep 1 around for the compact SUV and crossover. Right now they make a 1.5, a 1.6, a 2.0, a 3.0 (South America only) and a diesel. China taxes everything bigger than 1.5L displacement much higher, so the 1.5 is the newest addition to the lineup and probably the one they'll stick with. They manage to milk a respectable 181HP out of it.

            Meanwhile, they have new 2.7 and 3.0 V6s out and a brand new 3.5 they'll drop into the F-150 and the Expedition. They can probably save a hell of a lot of money if they just scrap the 1.6 and 2.0 4-cyl engine development and all the chassis/powertrain work related to them and the sedans they'd go in. I'm assuming they'll retire that old 3.5L duratech too.

            GM is a bit more all over the place. They've still got legacy varients of Saab, Opel, Daewoo and other engines floating around out there with anywhere from 3 to 8 cylinders. They were going to have to streamline their production at some point, I figure.
            So their real problem is the legacy issue of a wide variety of production facilities of questionable use and profitability over even the medium term? As I understand things here in Europe, the long term trend is towards either a vehicle with a tiny engine supporting and re-charging a large battery, or simply totally electric. With what you have described above, I for one would not like to be a part of the decision train in either Ford or GM. They face an immense challenge, it will make an interesting story going forward.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: What's up with the US auto market

              Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
              So their real problem is the legacy issue of a wide variety of production facilities of questionable use and profitability over even the medium term? As I understand things here in Europe, the long term trend is towards either a vehicle with a tiny engine supporting and re-charging a large battery, or simply totally electric. With what you have described above, I for one would not like to be a part of the decision train in either Ford or GM. They face an immense challenge, it will make an interesting story going forward.
              Yeah, we'll see what happens. The electric stuff hasn't taken off quite as well here in the States where we levy much less tax on gasoline and it sells a lot cheaper. Plug-ins are only like 1% of the market here (China, UK, and France are about 2% and growing much faster), and the pickup truck market is about 16% and growing at about 5% per year.

              It's a real risk if/when oil spikes again to dump the medium term eggs in that basket. But I also think it's getting to be a crowded field--between Chinese auto manufacturers coming online and starting to try to export big on the world stage and the fact half of the 20 biggest companies are playing with car prototypes in some way or other right now, and BYD's electric cars have been selling to US fleets if not directly to consumers, and there's a bunch of German models headed our way in the next 1-3 years.

              There's a big shift coming. I figure 2025 won't look anything like 2018. Biggest shake-up in a while. I suppose, seeing all that coming, retreating back to what not so many people are trying to do (trucks and SUVs and muscle cars with larger engines) might seem like a reasonable niche move.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: What's up with the US auto market

                Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
                ...What else? Oh, apparently to save gas, or pretend it's a hybrid? I don't know which, but the damned thing shuts off every time you stop. Red light? Engine shuts off. Stop sign? Off. Now, you hit the gas, it starts again, and you're good to go. But want to take one of those classic Massachusetts fast lefts into traffic off the stop line? No go. You can't start fast. It probably doubles the 0-60 time, because the starter has to turn over ever time you go again. Just a big long delay. So you have to wait until there's a super wide opening to go anywhere.
                On stick-shift models in Europe this is a pretty common feature nowadays, called 'start-stop'.
                The way it works on a model with clutch, is that at a traffic light, you shift the gear into neutral, and when you release the clutch, the engine shuts off.
                The engine will start again as soon as the you press the clutch.
                For stick-shift this is a normal action, as you will normally shift into 1st gear a couple of seconds before the lights turn green, hence there is no delay.
                It just requires paying attention to the crossing to anticipate when lights are about to turn green (or when you're not on first row, when the cars 2-3 lines ahead of you start pulling up).

                If for whatever reason you don't want to use it temporarily (maybe you can't anticipate when the lights turn green and you need the engine to keep running for a quick pull-up), you just don't release clutch in neutral, and the engine won't cut off.

                The implementation of automatic start-stop you describe with automatic transmission sounds like a really bad idea... start-stop requires a manual clutch to allow for timing by the driver.
                engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: What's up with the US auto market

                  Good to know! Made zero sense on an automatic. At least now I grasp the rationale behind the setup. They don't even offer a manual version of the thing (or most models) in the US, but I can see how it makes more sense with a a manual.

                  ...Although I still kind of question how much if any net environmental savings there will be from such limited idle reduction all the excess stopping and starting and the additional wear and tear shortening engine, starter, fuel pump, alternator, and battery lifespans.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: What's up with the US auto market

                    Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
                    Good to know! Made zero sense on an automatic. At least now I grasp the rationale behind the setup. They don't even offer a manual version of the thing (or most models) in the US, but I can see how it makes more sense with a a manual.

                    ...Although I still kind of question how much if any net environmental savings there will be from such limited idle reduction all the excess stopping and starting and the additional wear and tear shortening engine, starter, fuel pump, alternator, and battery lifespans.
                    in driving schools they teach student drivers to only use it when the traffic stop is for more than 2-3 minutes.
                    also, the system is supposed to be intelligent and to not engage where it could cause excessive wear.

                    whether it really is useful or just PR for 'greener' ICE cars? who knows...
                    engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: What's up with the US auto market

                      What you describe is a third world car for a third world market. Like the Gulf, with it's huge income disparities. The members of the Ruling Families, the wealthy merchant families and the professional expatriates buy German or high end Japanese. The Chinese were making great inroads a decade back selling faux luxury to the rest.

                      With the mandatory technology (and knowledge) transfer from GAC's myriad of JV partners the cars have no doubt gotten much better over the years. But I would guess it's a similar market appeal in the USA. While the affluent can make a statement with a Tesla (have they yet sold a single Model 3 for the infamous $35k?) or hybrid Lexus, perhaps the growing numbers further down the income scale find a monthly payments price point with all the bells & whistles allows them to maintain the illusion for a while longer that they aren't being left behind?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: What's up with the US auto market

                        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                        What you describe is a third world car for a third world market. Like the Gulf, with it's huge income disparities. The members of the Ruling Families, the wealthy merchant families and the professional expatriates buy German or high end Japanese. The Chinese were making great inroads a decade back selling faux luxury to the rest.

                        With the mandatory technology (and knowledge) transfer from GAC's myriad of JV partners the cars have no doubt gotten much better over the years. But I would guess it's a similar market appeal in the USA. While the affluent can make a statement with a Tesla (have they yet sold a single Model 3 for the infamous $35k?) or hybrid Lexus, perhaps the growing numbers further down the income scale find a monthly payments price point with all the bells & whistles allows them to maintain the illusion for a while longer that they aren't being left behind?
                        Yeah, I suppose that makes a lot of sense.

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X