Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

[touchring]

S300, S400, SXXX all can be found in Syria but seems ineffective even against a small barrage of outdated cruise missiles. Are SAM defenses useless in a real war?

With the advent of AI and drones, it's not impossible to launch hundreds of cheap flying drones against an adversary.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

S300, S400, SXXX all can be found in Syria but seems ineffective even against a small barrage of outdated cruise missiles. Are SAM defenses useless in a real war?

With the advent of AI and drones, it's not impossible to launch hundreds of cheap flying drones against an adversary.

Layered air defence is incredibly important.

The cruise missiles fired at Syria were not old/obsolete.

The Russians reportedly had some very capable SA-XXX systems in Syria.

its worth noting a Russian built Syrian Air Defense system(possibly Pantsir) nailed a Turkish RF4 Recce bird a few years back.

As well as a first line F16I very recently, Israel’s first combat loss since 1982.

Lots of factors come into play.

Does Russia want to be emitting its best “hole cards” to defend Syrian airspace? Because Israel, US, NATO are all certainly watching, and more importantly, gathering signals intelligence SIGINT.

NATO, therefor US and Israel, also have had opportunity to train against Czech/Slovak/Greek S300 systems on exercise.

A well designed, integrated, overlapping, and layered air defence system is a significant nut to crack.

But it’s also very expensive to design/build/maintain and it’s expensive to attack directly, obliquely, or...bypass.

To attack it, or defend it is requires a “team of teams” approach.

Not a single attack, but a complex campaign.

Drones will play a considerable role in reducing air defence capacity, and air defence capability will be further developed to defeat drones.

Never ending back and forth.

Israel’s Iron Dome supported with US funds is an interesting study in the economics of air defence/conflict.

Cheapest missiles possible to shoot down even cheaper unguided rockets....or NOT fire if the trajectory economics don’t add up.

If I were planning to go after the high end SA-XXX integrated systems, I’d be looking at building a stand-off low observable delivery platform that can dispense a drone swarm within attack range, kind of like this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DjUdVxJH6yI


The first kinetic use of drones by non state actors was 20 months ago.

Lots of things have changed since then, including drone capability and use by sovereign states.

[touchring]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

If SAM is useless against swarming drones, it will be like going back to WWII where whoever finds the opponent and launches an attack first will probably win. Defenders are basically sitting ducks. Since drones are unmanned and can be produced cheaply using commercial parts, the risk for the attacker is virtually nothing. Whoever finds who first wins.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

If SAM is useless against swarming drones, it will be like going back to WWII where whoever finds the opponent and launches an attack first will probably win. Defenders are basically sitting ducks. Since drones are unmanned and can be produced cheaply using commercial parts, the risk for the attacker is virtually nothing. Whoever finds who first wins.

Imagine being in a completely black and lightless warehouse where you are armed with a high intensity torch/flashlight and a firearm.

And so are the other 300 people inside. Half are on your side, half aren’t.

Some are at fixed or semi fixed locations, others have freedom of movement.

Some have passive night vision goggles.

Everyone can hear movement.

Whoever turns on their torch/flashlight first is going to be the centre of attention.

Air defence network attack/defence and naval surface warfare are similar in that respect.
——-

There’s a lot of effort going into successfully mitigating commercial off the shelf drones by jamming/spoofing drone GPS navigation and hijacking drone RF command signal.

[Mega]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

good point
i watched a helecopter use some sort of expoisve reactive device to blast an incoming SAM, it was very effective.

Signal processing, understanding what your seeing will be everything......bigger nations will employ "Eyes in space" to try help.................but at the end of the day.....you don't want to push the other guy too far (if he has Nukes)

[touchring]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

Live video of a brand new sa22, Pantsir S1 destroyed by Israeli missile. Israel claimed to have destroyed a couple of batteries of Sa22. Each unit of Sa22 is suppose to cost $15 million, a battery will contain 6 launchers.

A Pantsir S1 in a military parade in Moscow in 2010.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

An IED was recently used to nuke a bus in Syria reportedly filled with Syrian air defence personnel.

I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that those personnel may have been involved with the recent IAF F16I shootdown.

[touchring]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

An IED was recently used to nuke a bus in Syria reportedly filled with Syrian air defence personnel.

I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that those personnel may have been involved with the recent IAF F16I shootdown.

I read that an Sa22 battery can cost $100 million. Half a billion gone in less than 10 minutes. War is crazy expensive.

[jk]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

I read that an Sa22 battery can cost $100 million. Half a billion gone in less than 10 minutes. War is crazy expensive.

great way to reduce supply in a deflationary world.

[touchring]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

great way to reduce supply in a deflationary world.

Does money get reduced this way?

Assad or Iran pays Putin half a billion dollars for the Sa22 batteries. Putin gets the half a billion. So even if the batteries is blown into pieces, Putin still has the half a billion dollars. Am I correct?

[jk]

Re: Are SAM defenses useless in real war?

Does money get reduced this way?

Assad or Iran pays Putin half a billion dollars for the Sa22 batteries. Putin gets the half a billion. So even if the batteries is blown into pieces, Putin still has the half a billion dollars. Am I correct?

yes, but wealth is reduced. the resources that went into the weaponry could have been used for something of value that continued existing.