1970's scare story

[Mega]

next time the Press are running with Global warming scare story........think of this.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: 1970's scare story

next time the Press are running with Global warming scare story........think of this.

I can't believe I'm having an argument with Mega. You are an epic troll Mr. Mega. Congratulations.

Let's take these things in order:
1) The population bomb was a book by Paul Ehrlich. He was and is a dumbfuck who was about as intellectually sophisticated as a bug. It is an irony of history that the governments of China and India took his thoughts to heart and not those of his much smarter and more nuances contemporary.

2) There was a visionary scientist that you may never have heard of. Her name was Donella Meadows. Her husband got most of the credit for her great work "The Limits to Growth". The main idea presented by the book was that population was peaking. Soon. She said so repeatedly and in print. This seems to have escaped to notice of even the people who read the book. The problem was that total world population was ( and is ) too high for the available resources. She predicted a crisis of capital. She said that all of the world's free capital would go into the resource extraction sector. That indeed seems to be what is happening. This is the chart that she made showing her projections for population, food production, etc:

Pay no attention to the 1970 era graphics and look carefully at the date where she predicted peak food and peak industrial production ( Think "wealth" ) . The Club of Rome was careful to say that they where just exploring possible futures and not making precise predictions , but this looks pretty spot on. So how did she do? Well I hunted around and found a guy who ran the same model in 2014
:


Things are right on track. Food is peaking right about now. Industrial production will peak in about 2020 or so and population will peak in about 2035 or so. What is important here is the mechanism of the peak. It isn't because people are all rich and bored and don't want kids. It's from starving to death.

Let's summarize what The Club of Rome predicted. It was a "Fool's paradise" with cheap and available food, a cornucopia of manufactured goods, and an abundance of "wealth" followed by a crash. This is pretty much the opposite of Ehrlich's views. You should think of the last days of Rome or maybe Marie Antoinette before the guillotine. Donelle Meadows wasn't wrong or early she was spot on.

3) what exactly does this have to do with global warming?

I think this stuff is fascinating I am going to run these simulations myself. One of the things I find striking about this debate is how little people seem interested at looking at the actual data. I understand Mann sued in court for defamation after he was libeled in print ( they compared him to a child rapist). If the National Review had tried to make an argument from actual data they would not be in court now. This is not hard people.

[vt]

Re: 1970's scare story

Maybe there is a problem with data collection:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/...rence-network/

[Chris Coles]

Re: 1970's scare story

Maybe there is a problem with data collection:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/...rence-network/

We still have to accept that if any temperature recording station is located for, say, five decades, beside a heat source such as a airfield runway, it will record any change in temperature between the day it was established to now, five decades later. Surely that data will be equally relevant?

[Chris Coles]

Re: 1970's scare story

For the record, it is my own personal opinion, that rising sea levels will create the trigger for population reduction and, at the same moment in time, the complete collapse of the present age in world civilisation. That we are about to enter a new age, where the population will be forced into deep decline by loss of crop capable land, at or near sea level, severely depleting the food supply; while forcing what are massive city populations at or near sea level to move to higher ground, up to 200 feet above sea level.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: 1970's scare story

We still have to accept that if any temperature recording station is located for, say, five decades, beside a heat source such as a airfield runway, it will record any change in temperature between the day it was established to now, five decades later. Surely that data will be equally relevant?

They have jets now. More over this is not about global warming. I an interested in system modeling of real economic and practical issues like mass starvation. The debate about global warming is centered on CO2 concentrations and those will stop abruptly pretty soon. You can see this in the CoR chart posted above.

I don't want a derail, but this is Al Gore discussing ice core data:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrNVXkvvMv4

Ice core data sounds pretty dependable. I thought I would dig it up and analyze it. It should match pretty closely with satellite data since 1965. In any case I don't doubt that CO2 is going up. This is CO2 measured at Mona Loa in Hawaii:



You don't want to know where this chart is going. We can debate the finer points of this, but it will all be ancient history pretty soon.

This global warming story is an issue for our grandchildren. The resource depletion and capital diversion problem is a short term threat ( like 5 to 10 years). This is Dr. Meadows:

The behavior mode of the system shown in fig. 35 is clearly that of overshoot and collapse. In this run the collapse occurs because of nonrenewable resource depletion. The industrial capital stock grows to a level that requires an enormous input of resources. In the process of that growth it depletes a large fraction of the resources available. As resource prices rise and mines are depleted, more and more capital must be used for obtaining resources, leaving less to be invested for future growth. Finally investment cannot keep up with depreciation, and the industrial base collapses, taking with it the service and agricultural systems, which have become dependent on industrial inputs (such as fertilizers, pesticides, hospital laboratories, computers, and especially energy for mechanization). For a short time the situation is especially serious because population, with the delays inherent in the age structure and the process of social adjustment, keeps rising. Population finally decreases when the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.

[Chris Coles]

Re: 1970's scare story

They have jets now. More over this is not about global warming. I an interested in system modeling of real economic and practical issues like mass starvation. The debate about global warming is centered on CO2 concentrations and those will stop abruptly pretty soon. You can see this in the CoR chart posted above.

I don't want a derail, but this is Al Gore discussing ice core data:This global warming story is an issue for our grandchildren. The resource depletion and capital diversion problem is a short term threat ( like 5 to 10 years). This is Dr. Meadows:

Now I realise that you misunderstood me, I was not trying to criticise the basis of the location of the temperature sensors, instead, I was trying to look at the problem from the viewpoint of the people who originally located them. In all other respects, I do get the point you make herein.

We are, or seem to be on the same page; that we are close to, if not already beyond, a significant tipping point; that will, in turn, bring the present age to a complete stop.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: 1970's scare story

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...ration-w516974

[Chris Coles]

Re: 1970's scare story

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...ration-w516974

Considering that in 2012 I came across a group of climate scientists debating among themselves the potential for the Greenland ice cap to collapse, and looking at the debate today, to my mind, we are about to see at the least, a sudden sea level rise of, say, 1 foot within one year and all bets will be off. If the Greenland ice cap does suddenly collapse and sea levels rise by ~ 20 feet, we might well see billions trying to move inland from coastlines. Not now "IF!" but when.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: 1970's scare story

Considering that in 2012 I came across a group of climate scientists debating among themselves the potential for the Greenland ice cap to collapse, and looking at the debate today, to my mind, we are about to see at the least, a sudden sea level rise of, say, 1 foot within one year and all bets will be off. If the Greenland ice cap does suddenly collapse and sea levels rise by ~ 20 feet, we might well see billions trying to move inland from coastlines. Not now "IF!" but when.

The latest satellite data shows sea level rise at 0.8mm/year. What make you think this will accelerate? I mentioned "The Inconvenient Truth" above. In the film Al Gore talks about the sudden melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a crisis because it would lead to a collapse of the Thermohaline Flow. This would in turn lead to a new Ice Age in Europe. It looks to me like this idea is being discounted by scientists and thinkers. For instance this is a popular web site showing the results of expected climate change in the year 2080:
http://www.climatewizard.org/

They think that Europe will become warmer and wetter( not colder and dryer). The original scenario where the "Younger Dryas" (a kind of mini ice age) was cause by the sudden emptying of a large lake into the Atlantic, doesn't seem to be applicable. There is no large lake of fresh water in Greenland. Greenland is melting gradually.

[dcarrigg]

Re: 1970's scare story

This global warming story is an issue for our grandchildren.

Maybe so, and landlubbers can go and debate the accuracy of some thermometer and animomiter on pavement to their heart's content.

But here's a true fact from someone who lives near the coast, and it's undeniable.

The highest tide in the recorded history of tides at Boston Harbor happened on January 4th of this year. The third highest tide happened during last week's nor'easter. The second highest was the famous Blizzard of '78.

Places are flooding that didn't used to flood, and with regularity. There is an immediate infrastructure need here.

This was just a few days ago:

And here's a video of Scituate from January:

Old structures that maybe flooded once every 100 years now got hit twice in as many months. It's not going to wait for our grandchildren around here.

[Chris Coles]

Re: 1970's scare story

The latest satellite data shows sea level rise at 0.8mm/year. What make you think this will accelerate? I mentioned "The Inconvenient Truth" above. In the film Al Gore talks about the sudden melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a crisis because it would lead to a collapse of the Thermohaline Flow. This would in turn lead to a new Ice Age in Europe. It looks to me like this idea is being discounted by scientists and thinkers. For instance this is a popular web site showing the results of expected climate change in the year 2080:
http://www.climatewizard.org/

They think that Europe will become warmer and wetter( not colder and dryer). The original scenario where the "Younger Dryas" (a kind of mini ice age) was cause by the sudden emptying of a large lake into the Atlantic, doesn't seem to be applicable. There is no large lake of fresh water in Greenland. Greenland is melting gradually.

Arctic Ice is Melting We Must Face Facts Sept 2012.pdf All I can do is represent the report I wrote in 2012 and to ask you all to take account that the references are not from my work, but are from some of the most senior climate scientists. What I did was take their work and present my conclusions for the possibility of the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.