Its kicking off in Iran !

[Mega]

Suddenly..........much unrest + Oil pipeline blown.....
Hmmm
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

Too soon to tell whether this turns into something significant, or is yet another storm in a teacup.

How much is low energy prices playing a factor on the Iranian economy?

How high is the domestic cost of foreign adventure(Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Palestinian Territories)?

It’s my understanding that the only thing Iranians hate more than their own regime is foreign meddling in domestic Iranian Affairs.

Whether foreign meddling is actually true or not, it’s a guarantee the regime will make that claim incessantly.

At some stage, the lack of freedoms/opportunity for young Iranians NOT in the regime/IRGC/Communist Party/Nazi Party good books will eventually lead to internal/organic unhappiness and action.

I wish I spoke Farsi to better understand Iranian mass media and online chatter, my limited Dari is stale and useless.

It’s my understanding that the Iranian protests of the last decade were largely led and attended by Iran’s progressive educated middle/affluent(non IRGC related) classes.

Wake me when the more conservative working classes(tradesmen, factory workers, truck drivers) of Iran front up to riot police and start to crack Basij skulls.

Academics/students, outside of those 1 in a million instances like Red Army Faction/Baader-Meinhoff, are typically better at the speeches, blog posts, Twitter tweets, and Facebook likes than violence.

In the Arab Spring, those uni students/academics/educated expats-diaspora needed to connect with the soccer hooligans to smash the riot cops.

To this day, that connection/liaison layer between the social media brains and street brawn of the Arab Spring hasn’t been well documented or articulated.

I think a key indicator in Iran will be positively identifying the conservative working class participating and coordinating with the students/academics/progressive middle class.

And I think that will be self evident in escalating physical clashes with riot cops/Basij.

With the IRGC estimated to be controlling a significant minority of the entire Iranian economy, they will not be giving up without a fight. Too much money and power at stake.

So worth watching, but I wouldn’t get excited until the factory workers and truck drivers are cracking Basij riot cop skulls while students and academics post about it on social media.

Revolutin is a full contact team sport.

[vt]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

It would likely take massive general strikes to keep the protests going.

Gun regulations make it difficult to obtain firearms so the regime controls a major advantage unless the army/police rebel.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

It would likely take massive general strikes to keep the protests going.

Gun regulations make it difficult to obtain firearms so the regime controls a major advantage unless the army/police rebel.

Broad general population support is something the previous Iranian protests haven’t really had.

Weapons aren’t a problem(even in Iran...they may be illegal, but they are available) or a guaranteed solution.

Non violent(or largely non violent) revolutions are twice as likely to succeed as well as lead to more lasting outcomes.

If the west west is smart, and insists on supporting peaceful organic internal regime change, they would want to very strictly limit support to a post internet, post smartphone equivalent of literal and moral support of Poland’s Solidarity.

The full story hasn’t really been told on that one yet.

Anything else, and possibly even that, could be highly counterproductive.

I dont rate the chances of a successful internal/organic democratic change in Iran.

The Shah’s SAVAK were ruthless.

Khomeini’s henchmen were utterly ruthless, especially towards fellow anti-Shah revolutionary counterparts/competition.

The theocracy/IRGC will not give up lightly.

Even if a revolution occurred, I would hazard a guess the best case scenario might be something akin to Romania Post Ceausescu, where entrenched interests(Securitate) maintained silent partnership despite all the celebration.

[GRG55]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

...Khomeini’s henchmen were utterly ruthless, especially towards fellow anti-Shah revolutionary counterparts/competition.

The theocracy/IRGC will not give up lightly.

Even if a revolution occurred, I would hazard a guess the best case scenario might be something akin to Romania Post Ceausescu, where entrenched interests(Securitate) maintained silent partnership despite all the celebration.

I don't see much chance of anything changing. This is a regime that won't hesitate to shoot its own citizens, just as China did at Tiananmen.

As you pointed out in your earlier post on this thread, the IRGC benefit handsomely from the status quo and are hardly about to either stop defending the regime, or turn against it.

[Mega]

Re: Its kicking off in Iran !

Hmmmm............this could go either way...........if the West want it to happen then they need only back off (like the fall of CCCP) however that might not be in the "Plan".

Mike