North Korea can hit New York

[jk]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

north korea's possession of icbm's puts pressure on japan and so. korea. would the u.s. really risk los angeles if no. korea is pressuring the u.s.'s allies in that neighborhood? the logic leads to nuclear weapons being developed by both so. korea and [a constitutionally amended] japan. reminds me of pakistan and india.

before the general issue of inexorable proliferation, however, the next question is who will purchase warheads and missiles from no. korea?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

north korea's possession of icbm's puts pressure on japan and so. korea. would the u.s. really risk los angeles if no. korea is pressuring the u.s.'s allies in that neighborhood? the logic leads to nuclear weapons being developed by both so. korea and [a constitutionally amended] japan. reminds me of pakistan and india.

before the general issue of inexorable proliferation, however, the next question is who will purchase warheads and missiles from no. korea?

I think it’s safe to say that anything flying, driving, or sailing(surface or subsurface) out of NK will probably be getting hit with active and passive sensors to check for radioactive materials.

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

north korea's possession of icbm's puts pressure on japan and so. korea. would the u.s. really risk los angeles if no. korea is pressuring the u.s.'s allies in that neighborhood? the logic leads to nuclear weapons being developed by both so. korea and [a constitutionally amended] japan. reminds me of pakistan and india.

before the general issue of inexorable proliferation, however, the next question is who will purchase warheads and missiles from no. korea?

I agree provided what NK does is logical, but so far, almost everything that happened recently is illogical, contrary to what MSM like CNN and Bloomberg say.

1. Why was Kim Jong Nam assasinated?

Kim Jong Nam poses very little threat, but NK is willing to risk the wrath of China.

2. Why was Kim Han Sol target?

Kim Han Sol poses zero threat. There's no sense targeted him?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...uns-dissident/

3. Why was it necessary to conduct rocket and nuclear tests within such a short period of time?

Kim Jong Il was an expert in milking benefits and concessions from Americans and South Koreans (and the Chinese also) in return for suspending tests. To do this, you go slowly so that you can milk as many times as possible. Jong Il was smart enough to know that you can't eat nukes. In fact, you can't even use nukes in the first place because it will mean immediate self-destruction.

After North Korea becomes a nuclear state, what's next? Do they think the Americans say: Welcome to the club, we'll remove all economic sanctions against you!

Or did he thinks that you can start selling nukes? How about selling some to Hamas?

4. When China sent a representative to North Korea he was met with a cold reception.

China is the main economic provider for North Korea. Why is a 10 minutes meeting and handshake so difficult?

History has shown that illogical things happen all the time, just like why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in 1942. It doesn't make any sense at all. Ironically, even the Japanese admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, that led the attack opposed to the move and was threatened for opposing this.

Communist style propaganda is a double edged sword. After sometime, even the perpetrators start believing in their own lies and believe they will be invincible and can destroy the enemy.

[jk]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

re monitoring things leaving no. korea for radioactivity: i worry about material moved via china.

re no. korea and china: i think the no. koreans remember that the chinese did not enter the korean war until the u.s. approached the yalu river. they cannot fully rely on the chinese to protect their interests. thus their interest in getting their own weapons.

also re no. korea and china: was the cold reception a performance to relieve u.s. pressure on china? ["gee, look at how they treated our guy."] we know nothing about what happens in private.

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

re monitoring things leaving no. korea for radioactivity: i worry about material moved via china.

re no. korea and china: i think the no. koreans remember that the chinese did not enter the korean war until the u.s. approached the yalu river. they cannot fully rely on the chinese to protect their interests. thus their interest in getting their own weapons.

also re no. korea and china: was the cold reception a performance to relieve u.s. pressure on china? ["gee, look at how they treated our guy."] we know nothing about what happens in private.

How about smuggling some of the nukes to XJ separatists? Both China and Russia have a Muslim problem and the last thing they want is proliferation of nukes. Or maybe Trump intended this? We will not know Trump’s intention is at this point in time. He may just want to use this as an excuse to destabilize the region.

[GRG55]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

How about smuggling some of the nukes to XJ separatists? Both China and Russia have a Muslim problem and the last thing they want is proliferation of nukes. Or maybe Trump intended this? We will not know Trump’s intention is at this point in time. He may just want to use this as an excuse to destabilize the region.

If "the last thing" Russia and China want is a proliferation of nukes, then surely they would have done more, much more, in the past to slow North Korea's development of them. China, especially, has made no secret of its long standing view that N. Korea is "an American problem", not theirs. If the USA destabilizes the region it will once and for all make it "China's problem", and secondarily maybe Russia's too.

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

If "the last thing" Russia and China want is a proliferation of nukes, then surely they would have done more, much more, in the past to slow North Korea's development of them. China, especially, has made no secret of its long standing view that N. Korea is "an American problem", not theirs. If the USA destabilizes the region it will once and for all make it "China's problem", and secondarily maybe Russia's too.

China is trying to shake away the inevitable. North Korea is China's problem with the rebellious Kim Jong Un in power. Even if Trump ignores him, once he has got nuclear weapons, he will start threatening anyone who doesn't do his bidding, Beijing included.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

Interesting view, touchring.

So far, no country owning nuclear weapons has ever used them offensively (except of course the USA in WWII).
Instead, they seem to function as the ultimate defensive weapon -attack our country and we will nuke you in retaliation.
I can't think of a single situation where a nuclear nation has used the threat of a nuclear attack to gain something. Maybe the Cuban missile crisis fits here as the exception that proves the rule.

I don't see how NK gets anything out of the nuclear weapons it's had for a few years or from it's new delivery system which may or may not actually work.
In this particular case, NK for decades now has had a devastating conventional attack on Seoul in place and ready to launch in seconds, which has effectively prevented any attack on NK. All involved know that any attack on NK will result in catastrophe for the 25 million residents of Seoul, every bit as bad as a nuclear attack killing millions of people but performed with artillery and other conventional explosives.

I don't see how the situation has changed in any meaningful way on the Korean peninsula.

As a child in the 1960's I learned to live with the fear of tens of thousands of USSR nuclear missiles targeting the US.
I give very little thought now to the thousands of them Russia still has aimed at us, or the hundreds of nuclear warheads China has aimed at the US.
I see no reason to worry at all about 2 or 3 North Korea might be able to launch.

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

Interesting view, touchring....
I see no reason to worry at all about 2 or 3 North Korea might be able to launch.

Well, just an attempt to read what's going to happen and when it will happen as unlike ME wars, this particular war has the potential to affect all of us financially.

I suppose you're not the only one who thinks this way. Donald Trump certainly thinks the same way and even dares Kim to launch his nukes.

1 or 2 nukes won't destroy America, there's even a good chance that the nukes will all be shot down before any can land, I'm sure there's some top secret Star Wars type of anti-ICBM defense, some rail or laser cannon that we don't know about, but America's retaliation would destroy North Korea completely. From a strategic point of view, it makes sense to Trump to destroy Kim's nukes before he gets to manufacture them by the hundreds.

[jk]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

i am sure there are many potential buyers for warhead-sized nukes. i worry about terrorist attacks on port cities with the warhead delivered by freighter.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

i am sure there are many potential buyers for warhead-sized nukes. i worry about terrorist attacks on port cities with the warhead delivered by freighter.

That's my nightmare scenario too jk.
A tramp freighter with a nuke inside sailing in to port in Houston or LA or Seattle or Boston

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

No suspicion. Likely fact that North Korean rocket motors are from the Russian/Ukrainian RS-250 family of rocket motors.

It could be North Korean “dumpster diving” physical intelligence collection, lots of these motors were literally sitting around and available for scrap value in the mid 1990’s, or outright sales/purchase to be a thorn in the US side.

Just a thought. I find it incredible that a kinetic hit is the only way to take down an ICBM. Why isn't it possible to use fragmentation explosives in space?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

Just a thought. I find it incredible that a kinetic hit is the only way to take down an ICBM. Why isn't it possible to use fragmentation explosives in space?

I’m not sure what options are used with the existing AMB systems, but I believe most/all are hit to kill.

The good news is NKs delivery system is still quite suspect, but improving.

The biggest threat moving forward from here beyond reliability is the development of warhead bus decoy systems to improve odds of defeating ABMs.

That would also show support from Russia/China IF that occurred.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

That's my nightmare scenario too jk.
A tramp freighter with a nuke inside sailing in to port in Houston or LA or Seattle or Boston

The good guys have been working that problem for decades, with considerable known improvements.

[touchring]

Re: North Korea can hit New York

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/patr...le-attack.html