Is Tesla TOAST ?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Nice chart! Thanks!!

5000 units by early July still seems a stretch looking at this chart.

Regarding your comment about the low cost 'S', I wonder why anyone would buy a $78,000 Model 3 (and wait a year or three for delivery) when they can get a pretty nice 'S' much more quickly for not much more than that? Tesla may set themselves up internally for cannibalizing sales across their own product lines?

Frankly, the whole thing with Tesla is it has the feel of being chaotic and incoherent, the Chairman making it up on the fly, and lack of acceptance it is NOT a technology company.

Even if they do it once, it's choppy. Seems to me like there's a bump in key months, then production sags back down.

Chart looks a lot like they're letting some inventory build up on the lot, a couple hand-steps from finished, then using those to spike the numbers around key dates. I mean, they hit 2,700 the second week in April, dropped down to 1,700 the first week in May after the earnings call, bounced back to 3,500 the next week, the then dropped to 1,400 two weeks later, and now in the first week of June they're back up to 2,600 before the annual shareholder's meeting. Could be wrong and it's all just random chance of the chaos on the line. But it sure is choppy either way...

Frankly, the leeway tech companies get now-a-days already crossed the line into irrational exuberance in my mind. And the fact that any business that markets itself as a tech company has that leeway rub off on it is a bad sign. If juciero were held to the same standards as keurig, that catastrophe never would have happened. I mean, both Kleiner-Perkins (Mary Meeker's shop) and Alphabet (the Google) drove insane amounts of VC money into a $700 wifi-enabled countertop black box that literally squeezed a pouch anyone could squeeze with his/her hands. It's now defunct. But these are 'the smartest' VCs in the business. Theranos was another total black box. 3 or 4 year cash deposits in advance for a car that doesn't exist yet at Tesla sounds more like Reagan telling a joke about Soviets than real life to me. What are the odds this is not the tip of a much deeper iceberg?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

..Chart looks a lot like they're letting some inventory build up on the lot, a couple hand-steps from finished, then using those to spike the numbers around key dates...[/video]

Such things happen to some degree even in good operations. I admit that in a small manufacturing company we sometimes made the monthly shipping dollar target by shipping an order or two out on the 32nd day of the month, maybe even the 33rd day of the month. I can only imagine what might be going on inside Tesla to fudge the production numbers. I would not be a bit surprised to find hundreds of individual cars that have been "produced" two or three times with some clever paperwork.

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

This is getting seriously bizarre. Imagine those terrible oil and gas companies; out "to get" Tesla. Reminds me of the 100 mpg carburetor the oil companies bought up in the 1960s.
What next? Elon Musk weighs in on who shot JFK?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44531777

Tesla chief Elon Musk accuses worker of sabotage

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has accused an employee of carrying out "extensive and damaging sabotage" at the electric carmaker...

....The company did not comment and the allegations have not been verified...

..."As you know there are a long list of organisations that want Tesla to die," he added, citing Wall Street short-sellers, oil and gas companies and rival car makers as being among them...

[Mega]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

May be he could get Lydon Laroche to "Front" for him?

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

This is getting seriously bizarre. Imagine those terrible oil and gas companies; out "to get" Tesla. Reminds me of the 100 mpg carburetor the oil companies bought up in the 1960s.
What next? Elon Musk weighs in on who shot JFK?

Far more bizarre is what Tesla/Musk fans will say to counter every negative incident that occurs at Tesla. Evidently, in its effort to ramp up to 5,000 Model 3s per week, Tesla has placed additional assembly lines in some sort of super-strength tents.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06...ry-2-0-awaits/

The story itself (and other news stories involving crash with "Autopilot", vehicles catching on fire, and the very ugly balance sheet of the company) isn't nearly as interesting as the user comments. Even if Tesla manages to consistently sell 5,000 Model 3s weekly, I doubt that investors in the stock at current prices will ever see a reasonable rate of return on their investment barring a super bubble or utter destruction of the U.S. dollar.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Far more bizarre is what Tesla/Musk fans will say to counter every negative incident that occurs at Tesla. Evidently, in its effort to ramp up to 5,000 Model 3s per week, Tesla has placed additional assembly lines in some sort of super-strength tents.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06...ry-2-0-awaits/

The story itself (and other news stories involving crash with "Autopilot", vehicles catching on fire, and the very ugly balance sheet of the company) isn't nearly as interesting as the user comments. Even if Tesla manages to consistently sell 5,000 Model 3s weekly, I doubt that investors in the stock at current prices will ever see a reasonable rate of return on their investment barring a super bubble or utter destruction of the U.S. dollar.

Not to mention that somehow GM and Toyota got over 8,500 cars per week out of that plant about 30 years ago in an experimental joint venture. Probably didn't hurt that their employees made about $10 per hour more in real terms than Tesla production associates and got much better benefits (Tesla employees get no retirement plans of any kind, not even a 1% matched 401(k)). And probably didn't hurt that rent in Silicon Valley was much cheaper back then.

I mean, think of this: Minimum wage in San Francisco is $14 per hour right now, right across the bay. Elon's paying $17 to factory workers to run a line in a tent. You could work at an air-conditioned McDonalds as a cashier (not even a burger flipper) and earn $15/hr, and at least get a 1% match to your 401(k). When you consider that you get one free lunch per shift, your pay basically evens out.

Given the realities of the labor market in Silicon Valley, what kind of quality of employee and turnover rate is he really expecting to get by offering the worst pay and benefits package in the business? I know lots of people around here are generally not keen on unions, but the UAW slobs were pumping out over 8,000 cars with less technology and less automation from the same plant decades ago. You think if you got some Toyota-style management and UAW quality line-workers, they couldn't be doing it again right now? Instead you have software-style management and bottom-barrel minimum wage line-workers with minimum skill and experience and time on the job. And I'm willing to bet that's why some weeks they can barely get 1,000 off the line. Worse still is he has to be ever fearful of unionization and push layoffs and create more turnover when the possibility of it pops up to prevent it.

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Far more bizarre is what Tesla/Musk fans will say to counter every negative incident that occurs at Tesla. Evidently, in its effort to ramp up to 5,000 Model 3s per week, Tesla has placed additional assembly lines in some sort of super-strength tents.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06...ry-2-0-awaits/

The story itself (and other news stories involving crash with "Autopilot", vehicles catching on fire, and the very ugly balance sheet of the company) isn't nearly as interesting as the user comments. Even if Tesla manages to consistently sell 5,000 Model 3s weekly, I doubt that investors in the stock at current prices will ever see a reasonable rate of return on their investment barring a super bubble or utter destruction of the U.S. dollar.

Well, well. The "super strength tent" is actually made by Sprung Instant Structures, a Canadian company located only a few miles from where I live. These are actually exceptionally well engineered tension membrane structures designed to last decades if necessary. They let in diffuse natural light, are double-layered to be heated if installed in cold climates (like here, where they are made) or air conditioned, and Musk is correct that they can create a nicer work environment than conventional rigid construction industrial buildings.

The Birdair designed main atrium roof at Denver International Airport uses a similar technology, so anyone who has been through there will have experienced what it's like "under the tent".

But I have to admit I am highly skeptical anybody could set up a parallel assembly line in weeks. Everything from the automated equipment to the provision of utilities, to hiring & training workers to man the line suggests slapping up a tent and filling it with stuff isn't going to help the output numbers in any sustainable way.

[jk]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/stat...92334933274624

[jk]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

headline in the guardian [really!]:

Elon Musk drawn into farting unicorn dispute with potter

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

jk that'd a great find, delightful in a few different ways.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Headline from over at CNBC:

Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Well, well. The "super strength tent" is actually made by Sprung Instant Structures, a Canadian company located only a few miles from where I live. These are actually exceptionally well engineered tension membrane structures designed to last decades if necessary. They let in diffuse natural light, are double-layered to be heated if installed in cold climates (like here, where they are made) or air conditioned, and Musk is correct that they can create a nicer work environment than conventional rigid construction industrial buildings.

The Birdair designed main atrium roof at Denver International Airport uses a similar technology, so anyone who has been through there will have experienced what it's like "under the tent".

But I have to admit I am highly skeptical anybody could set up a parallel assembly line in weeks. Everything from the automated equipment to the provision of utilities, to hiring & training workers to man the line suggests slapping up a tent and filling it with stuff isn't going to help the output numbers in any sustainable way.

Potemkin Village?

Potemkin tent?

Potentkin?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Headline from over at CNBC:

Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

Hmmmmm....

Shifting a $1000(time’s X) refundable asset to a $3500(time’s X-Y) non refundable payment is.....cunning.

And increasingly risky for customers in a game of musical Tesla chairs.

But isn’t it a bit like throwing a shot glass of water on a raging forest fire? ��

It’s not exactly like Amazon’s 100% float for 30-60 day on a product with 20% GROSS margins.

It’s more like a 5% float for 3-6 months on a product with -20%(nearly) NET margins.

Selling dollars for $0.80c with a $0.05c non refundable deposit.

Is this becoming a bit of Game Theory/Prisoner’s Dilemma writ large?

[jk]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

recommended reading:
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/07/01/ivar-kreuger-goes-green

1st paragraph:

Let me start with an admission; following Tesla (TSLA – USA) has taken an increasingly disproportionate amount of my time over the past few months. At times, I cannot seem to look away from the unfolding train-wreck. I think this is because Tesla combines elements of every major securities fraud over the past century; along with the frenetic energy of a penny-stock promoter lurching between publicity stunts, desperate to raise enough capital to make next month’s payroll. At the same time, Elon Musk is giving you real-time Twitter updates on the increasingly reckless schemes of his failing stock-promote. For a guy like me, who’s made my career out of studying financial history; knowing that this will be the largest corporate collapse for many decades to come, and watching in real-time, is just irresistible—especially as the end is imminent. It’s like being there in the Führerbunker during the final days.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

recommended reading:
http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/07/01/ivar-kreuger-goes-green

1st paragraph:

Let me start with an admission; following Tesla (TSLA – USA) has taken an increasingly disproportionate amount of my time over the past few months. At times, I cannot seem to look away from the unfolding train-wreck. I think this is because Tesla combines elements of every major securities fraud over the past century; along with the frenetic energy of a penny-stock promoter lurching between publicity stunts, desperate to raise enough capital to make next month’s payroll. At the same time, Elon Musk is giving you real-time Twitter updates on the increasingly reckless schemes of his failing stock-promote. For a guy like me, who’s made my career out of studying financial history; knowing that this will be the largest corporate collapse for many decades to come, and watching in real-time, is just irresistible—especially as the end is imminent. It’s like being there in the Führerbunker during the final days.

That's really quite funny.

As the war progressed and became increasingly and obviously untenable, Hitler/Germany became psychologically reliant on "wonder weapons" of varying degrees of incredible capability and sheer lunacy.

But in the end it all went against the laws of conflict physics with zero chance of achieving escape velocity.

The only difference with Musk/Tesla is the parallel laws of financial rather than conflict physics.