Is Tesla TOAST ?

[Mega]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

[Southernguy]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...e-finally-fail

[Techdread]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Neural nets can be fooled, I have seen noise added to images which are imperceptible to human beings but will fool AI, this is a new hack which is a good thing as its researchers probing ways on spotting and fixing flaws.

There already looks like they can get around these sort of problems.

It's a fast moving field now with breakthroughs happening nearly every week.

[Techdread]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Sorry but it is really hard to believe this idea of self driving cars on demand is way more expensive to run than keeping your own vehicle.

As always there will be a mixture as the price of the technologies comes down, I expect the rich and the tech geeks to try it out first. Then as new ways of using it become apparent consumers demand to have them.
For busy parents an autonomous vehicle will be worth its weight in gold.

1. High utilization of car = more wear and tear. Yes, all that idle time your car has sitting in the garage ensures its longevity. More time on road = more parts to replace. Machines wear out or at least any parts that move and have friction. I have to believe if you double the use rate of a car then you are doubling the costs of running the car.

Which could be offset with it earning you an income, or picking up your kids from school etc. Also people might not even own the cars outright just lease them.

2. Public buses and phone booths - anyone ever notice what a mess shared public services are - many people are not neat and clean.

That is because the individual does not think it is theirs and they are not being watched, and it is only takes a few people to ruin it for others. Rating system / penalties will mitigate some of that.

3. Is there an advantage when we all attempt to access self driving cars at end of work day, coming home from night out, and other higher traffic times?

A couple self-driving cars could be made smaller, and plug into smart networks making traffic management easier so the daily commute could be faster. The time in the car could be better spent on things like sleeping or doing work.

[Techdread]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

I think it's easier to imagine designing problems away than to actually pull it off--especially if people interact with the problem in question. People are messy.

People are data interacting with them is something some companies implicitly want to do that's why Google has it finger in this pie.

But more than that, even if you can design problems away, I think you're still left with the crux of the issue that 1) it's more expensive to do so, and 2) the customer service levels are worse.

expensive? at first but this will free up people do other jobs, like look after the baby boomers.

Fancy massage chairs can do what a masseuse can do, but they cost $2k up front instead of $100 per hour, and lots of people would rather pay for the human touch, even if it's ultimately at a premium.

With all the sex scandals being reported these days I thought half of our population would rather get into a self driving car without a male in the driving seat.

Wealthy people will almost always want human servants in the service economy. That's the whole point of being wealthy. Money is only a tool to get people to do things they otherwise would not choose to do. Poorer people may suffer massive customer service declines. But they'll only do it if it's cheaper, particularly in terms of up-front costs.

of course that driver/bodyguard will still be in the driving seat, but when self-driving cars are shown to be more safer than their human counterparts their function will be to open doors.

I just don't see how self-driving cars check those boxes. It's not even really a technical argument, so much as a socioeconomic one. Customers will not want to be part of a rating system that can only punish you.

It will be dressed up, you have a five star rating, sir your next ride is free etc..

I mean now Uber has to not just buy a lot of expensive self-driving cars, but they need to buy depots all over the place to fuel and service and clean and maintain and store the things. Say Lyft doesn't bother and just keeps paying independent contractors $5/hour to do that for them, along with market and pay insurance and take liability and provide superior customer service that doesn't force you to be part of some draconian ratings scheme. Lyft instantly is more profitable and a preferable choice for most consumers in this scenario.

Uber has it hands in trucks and cars. Trucks look to be a more viable route though there will be a lot of political push back however they have the all important customer data and experience of routing vehicles. I'm sure they could find a model to make it work for them.

There might be some novelty thing, but I can't see the big market for it. We can barely keep city buses afloat with subsidies. Creating what is essentially a much less efficient fleet of micro-versions of the same business model seems a bit silly. Maybe something like that could work on a small scale in the densest population areas. But I can't see it working in suburbs, never mind rural areas...

The city is where the real money is, and for busy people with families a self driving car would be a god send. The research going into it means that while ten years ago people were saying it can't happen a computer will not be able to navigate busy roads, The argument has changed to it is too expensive, Well that expense will crater because having autonomous cars is now possible.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

The city is where the real money is, and for busy people with families a self driving car would be a god send.

I still don't see that working either. Even in my town (not city), we have good public transit. Easy busses and trains to Boston. Bus will pick you up about 3 blocks from my house in either direction. We still don't let the kids just hop on it and get around by themselves, even though they could. There's a few reasons for that. First is paranoia and safety...and it's not fear of the bus driver so much as the other people who ride the bus and who are at the bus stops. Second is that usually the kids are going somewhere to do music or sports. That means they're carrying around often bulky and expensive equipment. It's real easy to steal a $500 guitar from a little kid and pawn it for $100 it to buy heroin. And to too many people that sounds like a great morning. Beyond that, if they can't carry/lift everything and navigate around with it, then it doesn't work.

The idea that children will just be whisked around by robocars living independent lives from their parents like Jetsons meets Lord of the Flies is romantic. I'd watch it were it a TV series. But reality is just too messy for that. Even in sanitized, low-crime, boring cities where they exiled all the working people to make room for billionaires' pads a tierre and rents are so high there is no more retail or loitering of any kind like Manhattan, children simply are not riding around on the subways by themselves.


And that ratings system still sounds horrifically dystopian to me. Would you simply get banned from using transit if you had an arrest record or something? I really don't want to have to go through an extensive background check to earn the right to ride the bus...especially a ratings system that is not run in any public or democratic way, but controlled by some far off private company that allows me no rights to trial or appeal or redress grievances. You know they'll start selling reputation points to the criminal wealthy and start punishing the poor who can't afford to pay their monthly fee to stop reputation point decay or something like that. If you could control people's access to transit, why wouldn't you use that control system to extort rents out of them in exchange for their right to travel? It's pretty much re-inventing the internal passport.

[BK]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

+1 - well said.

I'd love to see a real break down of costs and revenue. Running a taxi service requires lots of maintenance work and try keeping thos cameras/lidar in good shape over years of work.

Really looking forward to seeing running of self driving cars during Jan-March in Boston and see how they perform with snow/ice/sleet.

[Mega]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-stock-tumbles

[Southernguy]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Simply put: drivers salary (in whichever form) es the costliest expense in transportation. Even in public transport with the exception, maybe, of trains. So the capital expense incurred in self driving taxis (or whatever you call them) will be fully and rapidly offset by the lesser over all expense. Electric vehicles have much less moving parts then ICEs. Their maintenance costs are far lower. If Uber does not change to self driving other companies shall do. The same could be argued about any capital costly productivity enhancing innovation. Lots of capital just to reduce labor participation. The rate of profit goes down, but companies don't have an alternative. Marx talked about that a few years ago. And that's true even in low wage environments.
As for rating systems we are all completely controlled by them now. From gift cards from retailers, rating systems by ebay and the likes, credit scores, we are surrounded rated on every aspect of our lives. Self driving vehicles (from small cars to huge trucks) shall dominate not many years from now. You like it or not. It's a fundamental economic mandate.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Simply put: drivers salary (in whichever form) es the costliest expense in transportation. Even in public transport with the exception, maybe, of trains. So the capital expense incurred in self driving taxis (or whatever you call them) will be fully and rapidly offset by the lesser over all expense.

I don't believe this is true. Standard calculated mileage rate is 53.5˘/mile. Even if you're only averaging 20MPH while on shift, you're talking $11 per hour in operation, depreciation, maintenance, and fuel for an average vehicle. And an average vehicle is older/crappier than Uber's standards and doesn't have a super-expensive LIDAR/GPS array for self-driving. The non-employee costs are definitely higher. Especially if you misclassify employees as independent contractors, which Uber does.

Electric vehicles have much less moving parts then ICEs. Their maintenance costs are far lower.

For the first 5 years, until the battery starts dying. That's one whopper of a maintenance cost if/when it goes or your range is reduced to nothing. Leaf charges $5,500 for the part alone. That's why a 5 year old leaf in great shape with only 19k miles on it only goes for under $7k.

If Uber does not change to self driving other companies shall do. The same could be argued about any capital costly productivity enhancing innovation.

Energy-intensive tech is not like info-tech. There is no Moore's Law. Fuel is finite. Nothing gets cheaper over time. Cars cost what cars cost. Leather seats are still a $3,000 upgrade. Leather is a very old technology. It's not getting cheaper...in the same way, I don't think that the basic glass and metal components required for a good LIDAR array are going to get too much cheaper.

Lots of capital just to reduce labor participation. The rate of profit goes down, but companies don't have an alternative. Marx talked about that a few years ago. And that's true even in low wage environments.

Unless there's Monopoly or Oligopoly at play, which there is increasingly everywhere. Netflix's primary competitor is Amazon Prime TV, right? Well, who does Netflix pay to host its content? Amazon. Force your main competitor to pay most of their revenue to you. That's monopoly power.

As for rating systems we are all completely controlled by them now. From gift cards from retailers, rating systems by ebay and the likes, credit scores, we are surrounded rated on every aspect of our lives. Self driving vehicles (from small cars to huge trucks) shall dominate not many years from now. You like it or not. It's a fundamental economic mandate.

And look how well Equifax is going right now... More unregulated private rating systems are not better... If anything, I hope we'll go the other way.

[Mega]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

http://www.carscoops.com/2017/11/tes...erly-loss.html

[Techdread]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Energy-intensive tech is not like info-tech. There is no Moore's Law. Fuel is finite. Nothing gets cheaper over time. Cars cost what cars cost. Leather seats are still a $3,000 upgrade. Leather is a very old technology. It's not getting cheaper...in the same way, I don't think that the basic glass and metal components required for a good LIDAR array are going to get too much cheaper.

That's a bold claim, LIDAR is the most expensive part of a self driving car are you seriously saying that costs can't be drastically reduced because it has glass and metal in it?

Google’s Waymo invests in lidar technology, cuts costs by 90 percent
https://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2017/...nt/?comments=1

Cruise acquires Strobe to help dramatically reduce LiDAR costs
https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/09/cr...e-lidar-costs/

Then we have a new generation of solid state sensors.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...id-state-lidar

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

That's a bold claim, LIDAR is the most expensive part of a self driving car are you seriously saying that costs can't be drastically reduced because it has glass and metal in it?

Google’s Waymo invests in lidar technology, cuts costs by 90 percent
https://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2017/...nt/?comments=1

Cruise acquires Strobe to help dramatically reduce LiDAR costs
https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/09/cr...e-lidar-costs/

Then we have a new generation of solid state sensors.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...id-state-lidar

The crux of this dispute lies in the definition of "good" when I said "good LIDAR array." Waymo cut costs by 90% by cutting back from 64 to 16 lasers and photodiodes and losing a ton of resolution. This isn't a sandbox like a smartphone app...it's real life 2-ton metal boxes moving at speed. The margin for error is near zero. So yes, you can have an $8,000 LIDAR system with 16 channels instead of a $75,000 system with 64. The devil in the details is how many more crashes and injuries you are opening yourself up to in doing so. But even if you can get everything safe with just 16 laser/photodiode pairs, I still don't think you're going to see that price drop too far down from $8k. We've heard about this price drop miracle with batteries forever too. It never comes.

I suppose the overarching point is that even if you get the whole system, kit, caboodle, and profit, all down to $4,000 in 10 years or something, that's still adding 20% to the price of a new Camry. Lots of folks are not gonna want to foot the bill for that. Especially because it's a super-expensive component to repair down the line--like transmission-failure level catastrophic to a used car...worse than a catalytic converter going. And you know these suckers are gonna break over years of bumps and ice and snow and rain and wind and pebbles and sand and grit and salt etc. Every other component on a car does.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

..Simply put: drivers salary (in whichever form) es the costliest expense in transportation. Even in public transport with the exception, maybe, of trains. ...

Southernguy I can confirm that is true.
Back in the 80's and 90's I was paid to do formal research on transit buses by the USDOT.
The most expensive part of a bus is the driver.

That's why you see city buses with very few passengers most of the day.
The bus is only full during morning rush hour and evening rush hour.
You can't find bus drivers willing to work part time only 2 or 3 hours each day.
So you might as well have the bus drive a route all day, serving only a few passengers, since you need to pay the driver for the whole day regardless.

[Mega]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Back to Toast-a.........sorry tesla
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ric-car-credit