Is Tesla TOAST ?

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

tesla will go down in history as an innovative company that burned a lot of cash, but in the process of making a big splash in the public's consciousness facilitated the mass market emergence of the ev. it has been a proof of concept and, as such, should never have been expected to turn a profit.

I think it's arguable that we've yet seen the mass market emergence of EVs.
And I think it's arguable we will actually ever really see that.

It seems that every jurisdiction that subsidizes EVs (do they sell in any quantity anywhere without a subsidy?) is also ideologically married to the idea of "renewable" power sources. And I'm still waiting for someone to show me an example where the power cost didn't go up significantly as fossil fuels were phased out. How does one encourage adoption of EVs when the power to re-charge them is rising much faster than wages or consumer inflation?

Where I live the current government on being elected decided to arbitrarily halve the planned time within which all coal power stations would be phased out; down to 15 years (12 left). Coal is roughly 65% of the total capacity fergawdsake. One of the reasons for the massive run-ups in power cost (I've seen forecasts our power costs could increase by a factor of 9 times in the next ten years) is the renewable power projects are being sold on nameplate installed capacity. So when our government promotes these projects and guarantees the proponents the price they will receive, they grossly understate the actual cost of the power. Our largest solar farm to date produces just over 4% of its nameplate installed capacity. That's no typo. 64% of the time it produces zero power. Our wind farms (and we have a LOT of them) produce just over 15% of installed nameplate capacity. At these output ratios I seriously doubt there's enough money or time to build enough capacity in the next 12 years to replace the remaining coal plants. And that assumes no population growth or power demand increases...such as greater adoption of EVs, for example.

I have no objection to a policy direction that eliminates carbon production, if that is what the citizens and their governments agree is best for our future. I take great exception to the peddling of outright lies that attempt to obfuscate what the real costs and adjustments will be. The belief that renewables are now "as cheap as fossil fuels" is complete nonsense in the real world - I'm referring to the world where consumers get a real power consumption invoice delivered to them relentlessly demanding payment every month.

[jk]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

I think it's arguable that we've yet seen the mass market emergence of EVs.
And I think it's arguable we will actually ever really see that.

It seems that every jurisdiction that subsidizes EVs (do they sell in any quantity anywhere without a subsidy?) is also ideologically married to the idea of "renewable" power sources. And I'm still waiting for someone to show me an example where the power cost didn't go up significantly as fossil fuels were phased out. How does one encourage adoption of EVs when the power to re-charge them is rising much faster than wages or consumer inflation?

Where I live the current government on being elected decided to arbitrarily halve the planned time within which all coal power stations would be phased out; down to 15 years (12 left). Coal is roughly 65% of the total capacity fergawdsake. One of the reasons for the massive run-ups in power cost (I've seen forecasts our power costs could increase by a factor of 9 times in the next ten years) is the renewable power projects are being sold on nameplate installed capacity. So when our government promotes these projects and guarantees the proponents the price they will receive, they grossly understate the actual cost of the power. Our largest solar farm to date produces just over 4% of its nameplate installed capacity. That's no typo. 64% of the time it produces zero power. Our wind farms (and we have a LOT of them) produce just over 15% of installed nameplate capacity. At these output ratios I seriously doubt there's enough money or time to build enough capacity in the next 12 years to replace the remaining coal plants. And that assumes no population growth or power demand increases...such as greater adoption of EVs, for example.

I have no objection to a policy direction that eliminates carbon production, if that is what the citizens and their governments agree is best for our future. I take great exception to the peddling of outright lies that attempt to obfuscate what the real costs and adjustments will be. The belief that renewables are now "as cheap as fossil fuels" is complete nonsense in the real world - I'm referring to the world where consumers get a real power consumption invoice delivered to them relentlessly demanding payment every month.

sounds like an opportunity to develop a vehicle powered by coal.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

next month will mark six years since the debut of the Model S. Tesla is going to have to spend some development money soon to re-fresh that model or Audi/Porsche will crush an 8 year old design.
The squeeze is on.

The Tesla story reminds me of the Eclipse Aviation story....writ large.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

The Tesla story reminds me of the Eclipse Aviation story....writ large.

Reminds me of 20th Century Motorcar Corp too. After that disaster, there were still true believers and former employees who swore the thing was great and the business was sound decades later. Cult of personality...

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

The Tesla story reminds me of the Eclipse Aviation story....writ large.

The car business is tough. The General Aviation business is even more brutal. Look at the challenges Honda, with all its vast resources, is currently having with the HondaJet.

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

sounds like an opportunity to develop a vehicle powered by coal.

Like this one?

[jk]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Like this one?

as long as you can fake the emissions tests.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

One of my favorite Vince Gill songs is "One More Last Chance".
Seems like Telsa is doing much the same, recently promising to become profitable this year.

Tesla told investors today (May 2) it would deliver the Model 3, and profitability, by the end of 2018, after more than a decade of annual losses. In a letter to investors (pdf) before today’s earnings call, Tesla stated it would be producing 5,000 Model 3s per week “in about two months” after a year of chronic delays.

That’s nowhere close to the 20,000 Tesla originally forecasted...

Full article here https://qz.com/1268515/tesla-tsla-sa...e-end-of-2018/

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

as long as you can fake the emissions tests.

You know what I honestly can't fathom around here? I probably put something between 400-600 gallons of diesel per winter into my furnace that blasts the exhaust right into my chimney with no emissions mitigation technology at all. So does everyone else in my neighborhood--in fact, our home is smaller than most so they probably burn more. That's enough to go how far? Maybe 16,000-24,000 miles per year in a diesel Passat that's getting 40mpg combined? Why are the emissions standards so much tougher on one than the other? I mean if this stuff's really killing us so badly, why do we let people just burn it in their homes willy-nilly? I watched that new diesel-gate documentary on Netflix and all I could think was that they were overplaying how deadly the emissions are a little much. A night around the campfire eating charred marshmallows probably does just as much carcinogenic damage. Not that I think the state has no place regulating emissions. But if they're going to do it, a little consistency would at least make things more sensible. I get the feeling in the US, CARB sets something because LA and other California cities are basically sitting in bowls surrounded by high mountains so smog just drops and sticks. And other states just follow what CARB does, because they don't have the staff to do the primary work themselves. And somehow, in the process of copying California regulations, New England forgot that it's the only region in the country that still heats substantially with fuel oil, even in many urban areas, and maybe they ought to take that into account before people go into the night screaming about how software cheats to emissions tests are deadly (although they are fraudulent and they deserved to get smacked down for that). Of course, like package stores, the small-time local fuel-oil delivery business is a big local employer around these parts. One of the last things besides medical bills and tuition you can't offshore. So I get that there'd be institutional resistance.

[Techdread]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

You know what I honestly can't fathom around here? I probably put something between 400-600 gallons of diesel per winter into my furnace that blasts the exhaust right into my chimney with no emissions mitigation technology at all. So does everyone else in my neighborhood--in fact, our home is smaller than most so they probably burn more. That's enough to go how far? Maybe 16,000-24,000 miles per year in a diesel Passat that's getting 40mpg combined? Why are the emissions standards so much tougher on one than the other? I mean if this stuff's really killing us so badly, why do we let people just burn it in their homes willy-nilly? I watched that new diesel-gate documentary on Netflix and all I could think was that they were overplaying how deadly the emissions are a little much. A night around the campfire eating charred marshmallows probably does just as much carcinogenic damage. Not that I think the state has no place regulating emissions. But if they're going to do it, a little consistency would at least make things more sensible. I get the feeling in the US, CARB sets something because LA and other California cities are basically sitting in bowls surrounded by high mountains so smog just drops and sticks. And other states just follow what CARB does, because they don't have the staff to do the primary work themselves. And somehow, in the process of copying California regulations, New England forgot that it's the only region in the country that still heats substantially with fuel oil, even in many urban areas, and maybe they ought to take that into account before people go into the night screaming about how software cheats to emissions tests are deadly (although they are fraudulent and they deserved to get smacked down for that). Of course, like package stores, the small-time local fuel-oil delivery business is a big local employer around these parts. One of the last things besides medical bills and tuition you can't offshore. So I get that there'd be institutional resistance.

Bosch cuts diesel NOx emissions by almost 90 per cent with new technology. Here’s everything you need to know

A breakthrough in the management of diesel emissions has been announced today, enabling diesel cars to undercut future limits for nitrogen oxide (NOx) by almost 90 per cent.

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-new...-nox-emissions

Your furnace may not be emitting much NOX because it burns at a high temperature.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

...Your furnace may not be emitting much NOX because it burns at a high temperature.

I believe the relationship goes the other way - as combustion temperatures increase, NOx emissions increase.
But you might still be essentially correct; a furnace may burn cooler...

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

A couple of Tesla updates this morning. Reading between the lines this seems a company that lacks adequate working capital to stock sufficient numbers of parts to build the model variations it promoted and sold, and is still a long way from solving its production volume issues.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1J01B0

Big Tesla investors look like firewall for Elon Musk




https://www.recode.net/2018/6/4/1741...-been-refunded

Nearly a quarter of Tesla’s Model 3 reservation deposits in the U.S. have supposedly been refunded

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

The latest pronouncements from the oracle. Market cap up 5 Billion in one day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/tesla-shareholder-meeting-elon-musk-reveals-automakers-factory-plans.html

Tesla shares clinch best day since November 2015 after Elon Musk's comments at shareholder meeting

Tesla reveals it is nearing its Model 3 weekly production goal of 5,000 vehicles per week.

Tesla hasn't come anywhere near 5000 per week and there's absolutely no solid evidence this latest prognostication by Musk is any more likely to be achieved than all the others before. It was supposed to be churning out 20,000 cars a week last December. One wonders how comical the production problems at Tesla have to become before "the market" finally takes note.

This remains a low volume, high cost, low efficiency car assembly company trying to pretend its a "technology company". And I am completely unconvinced that any company with a California tech company culture has any ability to solve a good old Detroit style assembly line productivity problem. I made the comment to a friend the other day that having Elon Musk "sleeping on the factory floor" trying to fix Tesla's production problems was like inviting Tim Cook to join a Presidential Panel to grow the iron ore industry.

On low volume one must produce high margin luxury cars, not a couple of thousand "mass market" Model 3 strippers per week. At the AGM Musk announced a new "Performance Version" of the Model 3. It will retail for a cool US $78,000. Hands up everyone here who can afford one of those "people's cars". At some point this company has to abandon the idea it will ever be capable of producing a mass market car - so far its efforts to do so with the Model 3 program are dooming it to extinction.

Bay Area Freemont, California, has to be just about the most expensive place on the planet Earth to build cars. Any car. But most especially a $35,000 "people's car". No wonder he wants to go to Mars.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

To my knowledge, not a single Model 3 has sold for less than $50k yet. That $35k number is still for a hypothetical configuration that has yet to be made. And remember, originally there was supposed to be a $49k configuration of the Model S that never materialized. As to the 5,000k per week and shifting production targets, the Bloomberg tracker is instructive:

[GRG55]

Re: Is Tesla TOAST ?

Nice chart! Thanks!!

5000 units by early July still seems a stretch looking at this chart.

Regarding your comment about the low cost 'S', I wonder why anyone would buy a $78,000 Model 3 (and wait a year or three for delivery) when they can get a pretty nice 'S' much more quickly for not much more than that? Tesla may set themselves up internally for cannibalizing sales across their own product lines?

Frankly, the whole thing with Tesla is it has the feel of being chaotic and incoherent, the Chairman making it up on the fly, and lack of acceptance it is NOT a technology company.