The PIIGS still fly

[dcarrigg]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

So now with the AfD results in Germany and the Catalonia vote upcoming -- are these merely speedbumps or potential sinkholes?

Haven't been on the site in some time -- interesting to see many of the old names still battling it out. :-)

If history is a guide, this doesn't bode well.

AfD is a new far-right party that showed up and pulled 13% with the leading party pulling in 33%.

Remember what happened the last time a new far-right party showed up in Germany and pulled 18% with the leading party pulling in 25%?

History rhymes, it doesn't repeat.

But the far-right is back. Big time. And, historically, they don't wait to capture 51% of the vote. They take power.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

So now with the AfD results in Germany and the Catalonia vote upcoming -- are these merely speedbumps or potential sinkholes?

Haven't been on the site in some time -- interesting to see many of the old names still battling it out. :-)

As a spaniard living in Madrid, I would like to tell you that a lot of news concerning Catalonia appeared outside Spain are fake news. The secession of Catalonia from Spain is not different from what would be the secession of Texas from the rest of the USA. Something totally illegal and against the Constitution of the country. 10% of the catalan government are some kind of terrorists (the CUP), and the rest of the catalan government are more or less hostages to these people. It is not impossible that there is a small war in Catalonia, won by Spain obviously, but with a lot of pain that will take decades to heal. I don't desire this outcome but nobody has asked me what I want.

As you surely know, it is very easy to misinform people who are not living in the country, and the catalan government has been misinforming foreign media for a long time.

[FrankL]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

As a spaniard living in Madrid, I would like to tell you that a lot of news concerning Catalonia appeared outside Spain are fake news. The secession of Catalonia from Spain is not different from what would be the secession of Texas from the rest of the USA. Something totally illegal and against the Constitution of the country. 10% of the catalan government are some kind of terrorists (the CUP), and the rest of the catalan government are more or less hostages to these people. It is not impossible that there is a small war in Catalonia, won by Spain obviously, but with a lot of pain that will take decades to heal. I don't desire this outcome but nobody has asked me what I want.

As you surely know, it is very easy to misinform people who are not living in the country, and the catalan government has been misinforming foreign media for a long time.

Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't the question of independence primarily be the result of self-determination of a nation and its people, rather than letting it be decided by whoever rules over them?
A vote would show if there's support from a majority of citizen, or whether it's truly the 'terrorist 10% of Catalan government'. The fact that the Spanish government/constitution made this vote illegal doesn't really mean much when seeking independence, other than a facade by the central government for the unwillingness to learn how strong the will for independence really is.

As a Spaniard, maybe you should imagine Gibraltarians wanting to vote for independence from the UK, and the UK saying that they cannot keep a vote as it is against their law. Not that the UK would do such a thing, as they do let their citizen vote about these type of questions...

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

[QUOTE=FrankL;310108]Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't the question of independence primarily be the result of self-determination of a nation and its people, rather than letting it be decided by whoever rules over them?

This depends on whether you believe that Constitutions should be followed or not.

[jpatter666]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't the question of independence primarily be the result of self-determination of a nation and its people, rather than letting it be decided by whoever rules over them?
A vote would show if there's support from a majority of citizen, or whether it's truly the 'terrorist 10% of Catalan government'. The fact that the Spanish government/constitution made this vote illegal doesn't really mean much when seeking independence, other than a facade by the central government for the unwillingness to learn how strong the will for independence really is.

As a Spaniard, maybe you should imagine Gibraltarians wanting to vote for independence from the UK, and the UK saying that they cannot keep a vote as it is against their law. Not that the UK would do such a thing, as they do let their citizen vote about these type of questions...

If that was the case, I'd be writing to you from the Confederate States of America (Virginia).

[FrankL]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

If that was the case, I'd be writing to you from the Confederate States of America (Virginia).

maybe, but keep in mind that slavery goes against self-determination.
So if you make that a Confederate States of America without slavery, then I don't think I see a problem with that.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

If that was the case, I'd be writing to you from the Confederate States of America (Virginia).

Nice to see you back jpatter666.
Great point.

[GRG55]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't the question of independence primarily be the result of self-determination of a nation and its people, rather than letting it be decided by whoever rules over them?
A vote would show if there's support from a majority of citizen, or whether it's truly the 'terrorist 10% of Catalan government'. The fact that the Spanish government/constitution made this vote illegal doesn't really mean much when seeking independence, other than a facade by the central government for the unwillingness to learn how strong the will for independence really is.

As a Spaniard, maybe you should imagine Gibraltarians wanting to vote for independence from the UK, and the UK saying that they cannot keep a vote as it is against their law. Not that the UK would do such a thing, as they do let their citizen vote about these type of questions...

Many nations have settled this sort of question through civil war. I think it is clear the USA civil war determined that State secession is absolutely out of the question. Period.

I liken what is happening in Spain to the Quebec/Canada nonsense. In Canada, having a "boy scout" mentality we allowed not one but two Quebec secession referendums. Both failed, but I am certain that had one of them passed not only was the Federal Government unprepared for that outcome, but so was the Quebec Government of the day and the whole thing would have been farce writ large.

Spain, having already suffered its own civil war, is doing the right thing to try to counter the tribalism that seems to have gripped the entire world gone mad these days.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Spain, having already suffered its own civil war, is doing the right thing to try to counter the tribalism that seems to have gripped the entire world gone mad these days.

I think you've diagnosed it right. Mad tribalism and polarization. Question now is the cure. Centrist thought is more of the same, a few tax cuts for business and at the top, few more free trade agreements, hope for the best. Far right cure seems to be closing borders and making things unpleasant enough for newcomers so that the new don't come. There's some nod to protectionism and a new world trade order, but so far none seem willing or able to dip into any of that. Far left seems totally impotent and incapable of winning anything or enacting anything if by some odd chance they bumble into a bit of power.

Centrists do not want to share wealth with the working or middle classes of the developed world. Far right are still surrounded by too many free-market ideologues that ensure centrist economic policy wins the day. Far left sits there like a limp windsock.

Result can only be more polarization, more tribalism, and more suffering for the bottom 80%.

I have been opining on this board for a decade now. But back at the beginning I said, "Their motto is GINI 0.55 by 2025!" We're still on course. Of course, same is true now as it was then; civil society tends to start breaking down and republics become fragile beyond the 0.55 point. Problem is, when you give governance up to greed, greed rules despite itself.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

I think you guys are on the right track here about tribalism and income inequality.
The far right actively shoots itself in the foot here by two of their actions.

First, they advocate policies that tend to increase income inequality.
Second, they fuel a radio, TV and internet noise machine that creates a right-wing tribe and encourages that tribe to develop and nurture a strong and angry sense of grievance.
The two are self-aggravating when combined.

Income inequality should be accepted better in the G20 because the poor are not so miserably poor as in the developing world.
So the social friction from a high GINI score should be reduced, it's less like poor-and-rich and more like rich-and-richer.

But along comes the noise machine, inflaming millions of people to anger with complaints that conditions are horrible, the situation is desperate, people should feel enraged, and drastic action is required. All this despite the observable fact that most folks had a good night's sleep with a full belly and can look forward to a pretty good day again today. And the goals of the noise machine include taking away the social safety net that keeps the public calm in the presence of a high GINI score.

The combination of the two increases income inequality while making it harsher to endure and encouraging the population to be more angry.

[FrankL]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Many nations have settled this sort of question through civil war. I think it is clear the USA civil war determined that State secession is absolutely out of the question. Period.

I liken what is happening in Spain to the Quebec/Canada nonsense. In Canada, having a "boy scout" mentality we allowed not one but two Quebec secession referendums. Both failed, but I am certain that had one of them passed not only was the Federal Government unprepared for that outcome, but so was the Quebec Government of the day and the whole thing would have been farce writ large.

Spain, having already suffered its own civil war, is doing the right thing to try to counter the tribalism that seems to have gripped the entire world gone mad these days.

So according to your logic, you can only become independent through armed conflict (July 4, 1776), or prevent secession through armed conflict (May 9, 1865).

Maybe this is more of a North America vs Europe kind of point of view, as we've had our fair share of armed insurgency (IRA, ETA, FLNC) as well as former colonies that were tried to be preserved through armed conflict.
Democratic dialogue seems a more civilized way to approach these issues.

All that Spain ends up doing by suppressing a democratic dialogue, is creating a bigger resentment against Madrid influence. Planting the seeds for a bigger and wider independence movement, in case it wasn't already at critical mass.

[FrankL]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Many nations have settled this sort of question through civil war. I think it is clear the USA civil war determined that State secession is absolutely out of the question. Period.

I liken what is happening in Spain to the Quebec/Canada nonsense. In Canada, having a "boy scout" mentality we allowed not one but two Quebec secession referendums. Both failed, but I am certain that had one of them passed not only was the Federal Government unprepared for that outcome, but so was the Quebec Government of the day and the whole thing would have been farce writ large.

Spain, having already suffered its own civil war, is doing the right thing to try to counter the tribalism that seems to have gripped the entire world gone mad these days.

So according to your logic, you can only become independent through armed conflict (July 4, 1776), or prevent secession through armed conflict (May 9, 1865).

Maybe this is more of a North America vs Europe kind of point of view, as we've had our fair share of armed insurgency (IRA, ETA, FLNC) as well as former colonies that were tried to be preserved through armed conflict.
Democratic dialogue seems a more civilized way to approach these issues.

All that Spain ends up doing by suppressing a democratic dialogue, is creating a bigger resentment against Madrid influence. Planting the seeds for a bigger and wider independence movement, in case it wasn't already at critical mass.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

FrankL, I respect your opinion about what happens in my country and I don't want to correct you. You have the right to think what you want. My only consideration is how easy it is to be misinformed when you have not been living in the country for a long long time, speak perfectly the language, mix and live with real spaniards, and your only source of information is mass media. I believe that it is interesting to know that international (and also national to be perfectly honest) journalists can be bribed, and in fact are. At least in Spain. Maybe in the more civilized USA this doesn't happen. You would be amazed to know what people in Spain think (incorrectly) about what happens in the USA. Here it is the same but in reverse.

In case you want some better information, you can read the rest of the message, but my intention is not to change whatever you think or believe.

The main and most important and respected newspaper in Spain is called El Pais, and is not pro-goverment. El Pais has traditionally supported the opposition of our current governement, the PSOE. Today it speaks about what happens, but this is not what you will see on CNN. https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/01...75_521544.html

A paragraph is interesting, because it contains heavy accusations against the catalan government. It accuses them of committing crimes and being the main culprits of the unfortunate situation that we live. This is what 75% of Spain think, everybody except the international journalists. You can use google translate or you can ask me if you want me to better translate the content.

"Quede bien claro que en absoluto somos equidistantes respecto a las responsabilidades que hay que pedir a quienes causaron ayer este monumental destrozo en nuestra democracia del que tardaremos años en recuperarnos. Los culpables principales son el presidente de la Generalitat y la presidenta del Parlament que hace tiempo pusieron en marcha un proceso destinado a enfrentar a los catalanes entre sí y a Cataluña con el resto de España. Lejos de comportarse como dirigentes de todos los ciudadanos de su país han exhibido impúdicamente su condición de facciosos dando muestras de un increíble sectarismo. Y lo han hecho con desprecio a la Constitución, al Estatuto de Cataluña, a sus representantes democráticos y al espíritu y la letra del Código Penal. Pero ni sus flagrantes delitos ni sus bravuconadas pueden justificar la pasividad e impericia del presidente Rajoy"

[Southernguy]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

If it only were the Catalan government....it's (it seems, at least) 70% of Catalans themselves.
Cataluña is, with País Vasco, the most developed part of Spain.
It has an old culture, language, and it's own economic interests. These seem to be conflicting with those of the rest of the Spanish State.
The repression of the referendum shall harden the independist stance.
Franco's motto: España; UNA, GRANDE, LIBRE sounds much alike language by Rajoy's gov.
As for "El País", yes, it is nearer of PSOE then PP. But it is a Spanish establishment mainstream media, with a "liberal" tint to it. So in this matter it's stance is, not surprisingly, almost identical to Rajoy's.
Don't know how this will end, hope there is not a war. I think most likely Cataluña will be an independant country affiliated within the UE.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

48% of catalans want independence and 52% don't want. These are very exact numbers, taken from the recent local elections held in 2015. Maybe it will surprise you to know but Cataluña is one of the most indebted parts of Spain (maybe the most), and also one of the most corrupt (probably the most). This kind of news don't travel well outside Spain.

The EU has said many times, very clearly, officially and as recently as yesterday, that an independent Catalonia will NOT be part of the EU, even if it finds a legal way in accordance with the spanish constitution (which is not the case now) to become independent. And you can bet that Spain will, at least for the next several centuries, never agree that Cataluña becomes a member of the EU.

I my personal opinion there will be war. A small war won by Spain. Kind of a small civil war, but held only in catalan territory. In case you want to know, I don't like the situation but nobody has asked me for what should happen.