The PIIGS still fly

[santafe2]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

The Maritimes again this year?

Hi GRG. Sorry, I obviously missed this post. No, we spent time in Toronto...too big, Quebec City...too small and Montreal...just right. We're headed back to Montreal for 6-8 weeks this coming summer as my youngest is taking an intensive at McGill and hoping to get accepted for university study after high school.

[charliebrown]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

+1

[dcarrigg]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

the city state worked for a while. the nation state worked for a while. the world's political-economic structure changes with the times. we are now struggling to find the proper scale for various activities and responsibilities. in the u.s. we have federal, state, and a variety of local gov'ts each with different tasks, different revenue sources, different governance. is everything divided up properly? off hand, i have trouble immediately seeing how to measure this.

europe is, otoh, agglomerating via the eu and eurozone, with their attendant difficulties, and struggling to devolve into regional, more culturally homogeneous enclaves like catalonia, walloonia, flemish-land, northern italy, basque-erville, and i'm sure we could come up with more. the kurds are struggling to create a true kurdistan. the shia and sunni groups in iraq and syria might be happy with the national boundaries redrawn.

on an even bigger scale we have globalization - increasing economic integration across national boundaries, something happening more intensely and on a bigger scale than any such movements in the past [e.g. late 19th century].

what's needed is something akin to impedance matching, matching scale of political organization to size/scope/appropriate governance of task. the system is evolving.

[btw- i'm not as convinced as you, dcarigg, that medallion fund is a ponzi. first, it is only open to renaissance tech employees - so limits its ability to grow by constantly recruiting new money, and ponzi's only survive via the constant accumulation of new funds. second, what little i know leads me to have great respect for jim simon.]

Not every fraud is a ponzi. But one thing I will tell you...if you're tapping it slowly and trying to avoid a collapse, it's easier to keep a ponzi going by closing it and telling all the original investors "once you leave you can never get back in and enjoy these astronomical results again!" than it is to keep looking for new investors. That way there nobody pulls their money out, since everyone is convinced it can't be what it is.

Simmons is the other half of the same coin. I don't care how many quantum physicists and mathematicians you put in a room together. They are not Nostradamus. In any universe where free will exists, those results are damned near impossible. The $6 billion tax fraud they got caught for is just the tip of the iceberg. Of course, they didn't get in trouble for it. But that's way too good to be true. Like rolling sevens a thousand times in a row shooting craps. You might have a super genius with superhuman dexterity rolling. But more probably the dice are loaded, and the fact that it's a string theorist throwing them just makes it easier to swallow the lie.

[jk]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

the city state worked for a while. the nation state worked for a while. the world's political-economic structure changes with the times. we are now struggling to find the proper scale for various activities and responsibilities. in the u.s. we have federal, state, and a variety of local gov'ts each with different tasks, different revenue sources, different governance. is everything divided up properly? off hand, i have trouble immediately seeing how to measure this.

europe is, otoh, agglomerating via the eu and eurozone, with their attendant difficulties, and struggling to devolve into regional, more culturally homogeneous enclaves like catalonia, walloonia, flemish-land, northern italy, basque-erville, and i'm sure we could come up with more. the kurds are struggling to create a true kurdistan. the shia and sunni groups in iraq and syria might be happy with the national boundaries redrawn.

on an even bigger scale we have globalization - increasing economic integration across national boundaries, something happening more intensely and on a bigger scale than any such movements in the past [e.g. late 19th century].

what's needed is something akin to impedance matching, matching scale of political organization to size/scope/appropriate governance of task. the system is evolving.

[btw- i'm not as convinced as you, dcarigg, that medallion fund is a ponzi. first, it is only open to renaissance tech employees - so limits its ability to grow by constantly recruiting new money, and ponzi's only survive via the constant accumulation of new funds. second, what little i know leads me to have great respect for jim simon.]

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Personally, I see this as a “wisdom of crowds” reaction to excessive centralisation of power, with the associated tollboths/landlords.

The internet’s underlying architecture is supposed to be about decentralisation and distribution of critical nodes for resilience and survivability.

I think it’s a combination of human nature and economies of scale which have led to a mere handful of internet based properties effectively owning everything.

The recent blockchain thread actually kind of ties in with this discussion.

A loss of confidence and/or perceived value in indirect but centralised government & commercial monopolies and a growing desire in the direction of peer to peer direct.

In 1984, Orwell’s 1984 was completely unrealistic as it was technologically impossible to sustain(East Germany and its STASI are the textbook example a mere 5 years later).

But 30+ years of Moore’s Law later:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aE1kA0Jy0Xg

What Orwell didn’t take into account was Metcalfe’s Law.

While centralised networks like Facebook, Google, and Amazon prove Metcalfe’s Law as well as the potential for authoritarian power, the next generation of truly decentralised networks will also prove Metcalfe’s Law.

As time goes by, Metcalfe’s Law catalysed by Moore’s Law becomes not just a weapon for centralised authoritarianism, but a weapon against it.

EJ May very well be right that Bitcoin falls someday. I would tend to agree in that it is just the first successful blockchain experiment.

It will not be the only successful decentralised peer to peer experiment.

There is an interesting analogy that could be made between Brexit, Catalonia, Slovakia, former Yugoslavia, South Sudan, East Timor, Kurdistan, and other rumours/attempts of secession on the one hand and truly decentralised peer to peer internet engagement on the other.

Check out Estonia and its e-residency: https://e-resident.gov.ee/

[GRG55]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

And also the most despotic and horrendous. Communist China, , Communist Russia and Tsarist Russia before it to name the most obvious. We could also add in the Saudis for good measure as a recent example. Nations are desirable for fighting wars I'll grant you that. There ain't nothing like a collection of people bound together in the "interest of the nation" if you want a good tear up.There was no Germany or Italy until the end of the 19th Century. But tens of millions would soon be churned up in two great wars fighting for nations that hadn't existed less than 50 years previously.

As for city states, well remember Europe's wealth was founded on those city states. On the thriving competition and trade of Antwerp,Venice, Amsterdam and city states of renaissance Italy. Do you think the Dutch regret their separation from Spain in the 17th century leading to Amsterdam being the wealthiest city in the world? Itulip wouldn't have existed!!!! I'm sure many thought the abyss was fast approaching then as well.

The great nations of China, Japan and India waned whilst Europe waxed because of the wealth and creativity emanating out the tiny pockets of Europe. As for the richest countries in Europe now....

Andorra
Liechtenstein
Monaco
Vatican City
Norway
Denmark
San Marino
Switzerland

All Small.All rich. As for the question of where does it all end? Well Switzerland is a great example of how democracy can work for all. It is small to begin with and has very autonomous regions. If people are ruled well they won't desire independence. If rulers are more accountable at a local level and live amongst their constituents then surprise surprise they rule better.



Or how about Singapore as a city state-3rd highest GDP per capita. As far as I can see city states and smaller countries are doing pretty well.

Yes, I am sure Athens and Sparta thought so too. Until they went to war against one another.

Your argument that nations exist to make war and smaller, city-states or statelets do not is specious at best. As is your completely incorrect implication that these small nations are some sort of economic miracle that could stand on their own. These small entities, including Switzerland and Singapore, are absolutely and totally dependent on the larger economies they trade with. Why do you think the Swiss are so desperate to try to avoid a Franc appreciation against the Euro?

You, once again, completely missed understanding what I was trying to tell you in the sentence you highlighted in red. C'est la vie...

[dcarrigg]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

You say they don't want a dollar trickling down to you, so you celebrate having little?

You don't celebrate having little. You celebrate being ethically, morally, civically, and spiritually superior. You acknowledge you have little materially, but you celebrate your non-material strengths. You refuse to sell out at any price. Do not do business on their terms. No market worship. No wealth worship. No mammon worship. You draw lines in the sand. You put honor before wealth. We can decide that some things are not for sale, at any price.

Instead you look to morally superior role models. Form strong relationships and civic societies and enterprises without them. If you can live a superior life, a more moral life, a more fulfilling life, then it will take little to see how rotten and corrupt the wealthy and powerful really are. I mean, it's getting plainer every day, in case you haven't noticed.

I listed enough murderous billionaires before. But remember billionaire Jeffrey Epstein's private jet, "The Lolita Express," that took his rich and powerful friends to diddle children on a 72 acre private Caribbean Island? How about billionaire Curt Johnson who raped his 12 year old step-daughter and got out of it for time served? Billionaire Silvio Berlusconi raping underage Moroccan girls? What about Du Pont billionaire Robert Richards raping his 3 year old daughter, getting found guilty, then getting his 8 year sentence suspended to just probation and now is accused of raping his toddler son? Nobody does time.

Take this Weinstein thing for example. Could a working class serial rapist have done the same thing? Of course not. You need to be a multi-millionaire to pay off dozens of six-figure settlements to women you sexually abuse over 4 decades without going to jail. Again, it's a subset of a larger problem--the wealthy are above the law in this country.

Then there's Robert Allen Stanford and Bernie Madoff with multi-billion dollar ponzis. How much you want to make a bet Robert Mercer's Medallion Fund, rather than truly delivering an average 70% return over two decades through the dot com burst, 9/11, Katrina, and the housing bubble without having a single negative quarter is just simply another fraud?

I mean, there are only something like 540 billionaires in the US and 1,200 in the world, and I can name about 2 or 3 dozen rapists or murderers among them off the top of my head, and another 2 or 3 dozen financial swindlers and white collar criminals to match. It's ridiculous. If those numbers hit the general population, society would collapse. They're at least an order of magnitude more likely to be felons. And that's not counting all the ones who did shit that got paid off and never made it to court!

The rest of us have to be better than them, or the human race stands no chance.

No republic can stand long when any elite stands above the law, be it plutocrats, the military, noble families, or any other group. It's a fundamental bedrock principle of republican life that the law reigns supreme, not man.

Until we demand our republics bring the wicked to justice once again, our leaders will continue to be absolutely corrupted by their absolute wealth and power. Disgusting people. Rapists. Murders. Billionaires. It's all the same thing. Life is cheap when you're a billionaire, relative to your fortune. So they use people like any other commodity. Because they can.

You cannot fight back against that by joining them and their corruption or wishing to become a corrupt, disgusting, amoral, and sinful monster in exchange for material pleasures.

You can only win by having an absolute moral certitude that you live by a superior code to them. Only then can you begin to bring the murders and the rapists and the swindlers to heel.

[llanlad2]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

Yes, this is a very contemporary way to behave. I know more people than I care to admit who have taken the exact same attitude and approach with their first, and sometimes even second marriages. With similar results.

What happens when there is nothing much left to separate from?

Do a majority of Catalans, as merely one of many current apparently aggrieved examples, feel their regional government is representing "the interest of the many" in that region? What happens if Catalonia is successful, by a slim majority, in its efforts to partition Spain. Should those that did not wish this outcome have the right to vote for the further partitioning of a newly independent Catalonia? Where exactly does this end? City-states? Village warlords? Don't we have ample numbers of sufficiently similar examples of these elsewhere, in less successfully governed parts of the world to understand the abyss we in Europe and North America are in danger of driving ourselves into?

I am uniformly sceptical of my acquaintances explanations of how "liberating", "positive" and "life-changing" their divorces are. Well, maybe I agree with the life-changing part.

I am equally sceptical of the supposed benefits of successive national subdivisions, like some matryoshka doll, of what have heretofore been some of the most successful examples of collective governance in the entire recorded history of mankind on this earth.

And also the most despotic and horrendous. Communist China, , Communist Russia and Tsarist Russia before it to name the most obvious. We could also add in the Saudis for good measure as a recent example. Nations are desirable for fighting wars I'll grant you that. There ain't nothing like a collection of people bound together in the "interest of the nation" if you want a good tear up.There was no Germany or Italy until the end of the 19th Century. But tens of millions would soon be churned up in two great wars fighting for nations that hadn't existed less than 50 years previously.

As for city states, well remember Europe's wealth was founded on those city states. On the thriving competition and trade of Antwerp,Venice, Amsterdam and city states of renaissance Italy. Do you think the Dutch regret their separation from Spain in the 17th century leading to Amsterdam being the wealthiest city in the world? Itulip wouldn't have existed!!!! I'm sure many thought the abyss was fast approaching then as well.

The great nations of China, Japan and India waned whilst Europe waxed because of the wealth and creativity emanating out the tiny pockets of Europe. As for the richest countries in Europe now....

Andorra
Liechtenstein
Monaco
Vatican City
Norway
Denmark
San Marino
Switzerland

All Small.All rich. As for the question of where does it all end? Well Switzerland is a great example of how democracy can work for all. It is small to begin with and has very autonomous regions. If people are ruled well they won't desire independence. If rulers are more accountable at a local level and live amongst their constituents then surprise surprise they rule better.

The cantons have a permanent constitutional status and, in comparison with the situation in other countries, a high degree of independence. Under the Federal Constitution, all 26 cantons are equal in status. Each canton has its own constitution, and its own parliament, government and courts.^[58] However, there are considerable differences between the individual cantons, most particularly in terms of population and geographical area. Their populations vary between 15,000 (Appenzell Innerrhoden) and 1,253,500 (Zürich), and their area between 37 km² (14 sq mi) (Basel-Stadt) and 7,105 km² (2,743 sq mi) (Graubünden). The cantons comprise a total of 2,485 municipalities. Within Switzerland there are two enclaves: Büsingen belongs to Germany, Campione d'Italia belongs to Italy.^[59

Or how about Singapore as a city state-3rd highest GDP per capita. As far as I can see city states and smaller countries are doing pretty well.

[DSpencer]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

I fear you're 100% correct, and that's the most dangerous part of all. If there's going to be any way out of the tribalism and the polarization and the hatred and the sectionalism and the economic malaise...if the republic is ever to become more again than a rubber stamp for the guys who cut the checks to the politicians...we're going to have to kill that aspiration. We're going to have to make it so shameful and disgusting that no reasonable, right-minded person would ever admit in public that they want to become such a vile creature. We're going to have to make being a greed monster with no allegiance shameful and disgraceful and a source of public ridicule. When people can stand proudly with the little they have and say to their neighbors, "We may not have much, but at least we're in this together. At least we're not like those soul-less, rudderless, mercenary monsters," then maybe we have a chance.

But I fear the headwinds are strong against us. I mean, just listen to what passes for pop music:

Isn't that just playing into their hand? You say they don't want a dollar trickling down to you, so you celebrate having little? If the world is rigged for the rich, can you blame people for wanting to join them? What other choice do they having...voting?

The libertarian response to the selective taxation is that the government shouldn't be empowered in the first place to play mommy or daddy by taxing people's soda. But if I have to pay for other people's healthcare, then suddenly it is my business whether they want to smoke a pack a day and drink a case of beer.

Is it ironic that John Fogerty's sons can't sing his lyrics as they are in fact a millionaire's sons?

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

In case somebody is interested, this article in The Washington Post is NOT bullshit, for once.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.3af1eb705452

I wouldn't say that it contains all the truth, but at least it points in the right direction. As you can see there, ten years ago only 15% of catalan people supported independence. What has happened since then? It is complex to say, but the article points to some truths.

[GRG55]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

There are large parts of Catalonia (like Valle de Aran and others) who have officially said that, in case Catalonia is successful in becoming independent, they will hold their own referenda to unite with Spain.

I don't want to start a political argument, since the people who might be reading this forum have (IMO) zero influence on any outcome and it would be pointless, but what I am telling you is a fact. There are large parts of Catalonia very pro-Spain and they threaten with seceding from Catalonia.

This is similar to what happened during the last Quebec separatist referendum in Canada. The First Nation Cree in northern Quebec announced it would not agree to abide by a French Quebecois separatist vote if it were successful, and would instead initiate a partition of Quebec so its lands would remain in Canada.

The referendum was unsuccessful by a slim margin of less than 1% (49.42% to separate, 50.58% to remain), so it never came down to this.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

What happens if Catalonia is successful, by a slim majority, in its efforts to partition Spain. Should those that did not wish this outcome have the right to vote for the further partitioning of a newly independent Catalonia? Where exactly does this end? City-states? Village warlords?

There are large parts of Catalonia (like Valle de Aran and others) who have officially said that, in case Catalonia is successful in becoming independent, they will hold their own referenda to unite with Spain.

I don't want to start a political argument, since the people who might be reading this forum have (IMO) zero influence on any outcome and it would be pointless, but what I am telling you is a fact. There are large parts of Catalonia very pro-Spain and they threaten with seceding from Catalonia.

[GRG55]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

It is the behaviour of the self-serving plutocrats that is causing the erosion of the values those symbols once represented. Dcarrigs post exemplifies that perfectly. If the symbol has been co-opted and corrupted it makes no sense to respect it except as a ritual.
It also makes perfect sense to not want to be part of it. If the nation is only serving a tiny fraction why the hell wouldn't I want out especially if I can't vote them out? You can call it tribalism or whatever you want. To my mind it's just a logical response.Ultimately the national interest must mean in the interest of the many in each region. Once it doesn't then splintering is a likely outcome.

Yes, this is a very contemporary way to behave. I know more people than I care to admit who have taken the exact same attitude and approach with their first, and sometimes even second marriages. With similar results.

What happens when there is nothing much left to separate from?

Do a majority of Catalans, as merely one of many current apparently aggrieved examples, feel their regional government is representing "the interest of the many" in that region? What happens if Catalonia is successful, by a slim majority, in its efforts to partition Spain. Should those that did not wish this outcome have the right to vote for the further partitioning of a newly independent Catalonia? Where exactly does this end? City-states? Village warlords? Don't we have ample numbers of sufficiently similar examples of these elsewhere, in less successfully governed parts of the world to understand the abyss we in Europe and North America are in danger of driving ourselves into?

I am uniformly sceptical of my acquaintances explanations of how "liberating", "positive" and "life-changing" their divorces are. Well, maybe I agree with the life-changing part.

I am equally sceptical of the supposed benefits of successive national subdivisions, like some matryoshka doll, of what have heretofore been some of the most successful examples of collective governance in the entire recorded history of mankind on this earth.

[llanlad2]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

It doesn't matter what they are objecting to. And my observation is completely unrelated to whether the grievance is legitimate or not. That also does not matter.

The effect is yet another in a long series of small steps to erode the value and influence of one of the remaining representations, symbols and shared public rituals of a nation.

Nobody need be forced to stand during the anthem, or the raising of the flag (here the President is wrong imo). It only has value if people do it voluntarily. Out of respect for what those symbols represent.

So what happens if some other constituency with some other valid grievance decides they too should collectively do the same thing - perhaps within the audience instead of as players on the field - to draw attention to their equally legitimate cause at a public gathering? And then another constituency? And another? There's no shortage of those to draw from these days.

With the flourishing of tribalism worldwide perhaps we are entering a time where we may be questioning the very purpose or necessity of a nation, any nation.

My own nation, Canada, is an interesting and heretofore relatively successful experiment in how to organize and govern a diverse society that lives together in comparative harmony. So far. And Quebec notwithstanding. But if one was to ask what is it that defines us as Canadians the answers, if any are forthcoming, lean heavily towards the facile ("We are not Americans!"...when in point of fact we actually are) and the irrelevant (our national health care program...difficult for me to imagine a social policy program being the primary glue that binds us together). Canada seems an increasingly fragile construct.

Interesting times indeed.

It is the behaviour of the self-serving plutocrats that is causing the erosion of the values those symbols once represented. Dcarrigs post exemplifies that perfectly. If the symbol has been co-opted and corrupted it makes no sense to respect it except as a ritual.
It also makes perfect sense to not want to be part of it. If the nation is only serving a tiny fraction why the hell wouldn't I want out especially if I can't vote them out? You can call it tribalism or whatever you want. To my mind it's just a logical response.Ultimately the national interest must mean in the interest of the many in each region. Once it doesn't then splintering is a likely outcome.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The PIIGS still fly

I fear their are too many folks who aspire to be like them.

I fear you're 100% correct, and that's the most dangerous part of all. If there's going to be any way out of the tribalism and the polarization and the hatred and the sectionalism and the economic malaise...if the republic is ever to become more again than a rubber stamp for the guys who cut the checks to the politicians...we're going to have to kill that aspiration. We're going to have to make it so shameful and disgusting that no reasonable, right-minded person would ever admit in public that they want to become such a vile creature. We're going to have to make being a greed monster with no allegiance shameful and disgraceful and a source of public ridicule. When people can stand proudly with the little they have and say to their neighbors, "We may not have much, but at least we're in this together. At least we're not like those soul-less, rudderless, mercenary monsters," then maybe we have a chance.

But I fear the headwinds are strong against us. I mean, just listen to what passes for pop music:

That's a world away from this: