What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

[Mega]

Where the Hell did it go?

[GRG55]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

It got fracked.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

It got fracked.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

GRG55, it's been a while since we've heard your views on the supply and price of oil, from your position as an insider.
Anything worthy of note?

[Mega]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

Trouble ahead?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ail-shale-boom
As EJ said "Your getting it sooner, not more of it".
mike

[GRG55]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

GRG55, it's been a while since we've heard your views on the supply and price of oil, from your position as an insider.
Anything worthy of note?

In the short run its the same story as always - the price of oil could go anywhere from here. Short term cyclical volatility is probably the continuing order of the day, and prices can move on financial market impetus or political events regardless of actual supply/demand circumstances & fundamentals.

In the longer run (2 years and out) how the secular fundamentals will play out is not clear cut by any means either.

My instincts are the secular trend is still flat to down and we should not be looking for any sustainable upward price trend.

- more than adequate global inventories;
- no indication with current demographics and global credit balances that worldwide economic growth rates are going to accelerate significantly for years to come;
- significant capital flows into the USA unconventional/shale industry adding to inventories, production and exports (the USA is now exporting about 1 million barrels per day of crude oil and domestic production may soon exceed the all time historical peak set decades ago);
- the consolidation in the USA domestic upstream industry to fewer, larger shale oil/gas players that are not dependent on continued capital funding from Wall Street to maintain drilling programs and rig counts (Exxon, Conoco as examples);
- the well known propensity for OPEC to lack discipline and cheat on their own production targets;
- Russia's reluctance to curb production as quickly as its commitments to the Saudis, and its need for oil revenue to fund its expanding global military adventures;
- the inevitable and necessary shift of domestic China to more of an internal consumer market and away from expanding energy intensive heavy industries and export manufacturing;
- the potential for Libya, Iraq and Nigeria to continue to recover production volumes;
- In developed economies the continued displacement of petroleum with lower carbon and renewable fuels (energy prices are set at the margin, so it doesn't take much displacement to have a material impact).



The plus factors that could disrupt that "rosy" (for consumers) outlook?

- greater than expected economic growth rates in greater Asia, with an emphasis on physical infrastructure (one example, the "One Belt, One Road" China initiative really takes off);
- a serious unwinding of political stability in the Persian Gulf - Saudi is a real wild card now with a new Crown Prince that seems as impetuous as President Trump some days (the spat with Qatar is unprecedented for the Arabs).

[Mega]

Re: What the Hell happened to Peek Oil?????

WAR, thats a BIG factor.............fingers crossed!