Predictions 2008

[DemonD]

Inspired by another post, I'm putting out my predictions for 2008 (based on prices at end of business 12/31/07), to end of business 12/31/08. Would love to see what everyone else thinks is going to happen:

1. Stocks: S&P 500 around 1300, Dow 12,500. Biotech sees a rally near the end of the year due to political events (see political prediction)

2. Gold: $1250/oz

3. Oil: $150/barrel (p.s. - I think oil may hit 200 by year end)

4. Dollar/Currencies: Real inflation at 10%, so the dollar down 10%, however I think it's possible the dollar index may stay the same or rise, I'll provide a range of 75-80, this is too hard to predict, but basically what I'm saying is the dollar may stay the same or rise slightly versus other currencies, but the whole world is going to happily inflate away.

5. Real Estate: S&P Case/Shiller down 10%

6. Bankruptcies: 4 major homebuilders file for BK, regional banks will start going bk (more a general prediction)

7. Political: Obama wins presidency, George W sets the record for most pardons ever, Middle East becomes more unstable with Afghanistan and Iraq destabilizing further, in the meantime the Democrats in Congress give W everything he wants. Ron Paul becomes a non-factor, and the libertarian movement makes no significant gains in 2008, although Paul wins re-election for his congressional seat. Obama's victory polarizes america further, but the Democrats hold or increase their control of congress. Democrats traditionally are more progressive with biotech, which is why I advanced the biotech prediction separate from the general stock prediction above.



Okay, I want to see anyone else who has predictions. Let's see what everyone thinks will happen in 2008!

[zoog]

Re: Predictions 2008

Inspired by another post, I'm putting out my predictions for 2008 (based on prices at end of business 12/31/07), to end of business 12/31/08. Would love to see what everyone else thinks is going to happen:

1. Stocks: S&P 500 around 1300, Dow 12,500. Biotech sees a rally near the end of the year due to political events (see political prediction)

Only have wild guesses on the stock indexes, but I think they will generally be flat to somewhat lower by year-end.

2. Gold: $1250/oz

3. Oil: $150/barrel (p.s. - I think oil may hit 200 by year end)

I have two very different trajectories for gold and oil (together), so since I can't make up my mind, I shouldn't make a prediction. One is similar to your set, the other is much lower.

4. Dollar/Currencies: Real inflation at 10%, so the dollar down 10%, however I think it's possible the dollar index may stay the same or rise, I'll provide a range of 75-80, this is too hard to predict, but basically what I'm saying is the dollar may stay the same or rise slightly versus other currencies, but the whole world is going to happily inflate away.

Jesse's Crossroads Cafe says 68 for "long term objective" on the dollar chart, so that's what I'm going with, sometime in 2008.

5. Real Estate: S&P Case/Shiller down 10%

Not sure which Case-Shiller number you mean, but my prediction for the Quarterly S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index for 2008 is a drop of 5%. The monthly 20-city or 10-city composites are likely to drop more.

6. Bankruptcies: 4 major homebuilders file for BK, regional banks will start going bk (more a general prediction)

7. Political: Obama wins presidency, George W sets the record for most pardons ever, Middle East becomes more unstable with Afghanistan and Iraq destabilizing further, in the meantime the Democrats in Congress give W everything he wants. Ron Paul becomes a non-factor, and the libertarian movement makes no significant gains in 2008, although Paul wins re-election for his congressional seat. Obama's victory polarizes america further, but the Democrats hold or increase their control of congress. Democrats traditionally are more progressive with biotech, which is why I advanced the biotech prediction separate from the general stock prediction above.

Okay, I want to see anyone else who has predictions. Let's see what everyone thinks will happen in 2008!

I predict Hillary, which makes my stomach churn a little, but I don't care for any of the other viable candidates either, so what does it matter.

One more prediction:

8. iTulip will tell us how to invest in the alternative energy / infrastructure bubble.

[GRG55]

Re: Predictions 2008

...Okay, I want to see anyone else who has predictions. Let's see what everyone thinks will happen in 2008!

1. In addition to the four horsemen of climate, oil, water and food, at least three new crises, any of which could imperil the future of mankind, will be discovered and gain popular appeal. I'm betting one of them will be peak coffee :eek:.
2. Oil prices will go down and then up. If that doesn't happen, then oil prices will go up and then down.
3. Greenspan will declare that "It WAS my fault after all - but "they" made me do it :p".
4. Hank Paulson will return to Goldman Sachs because it pays better, and the Chinese don't give him as much flak.
5. The fuel demands for Prince Al Waleed's private A380 will cause Saudi oil exports to fall another 1%.
6. bin Laden will declare he's given up marketing inspirational videotapes, because day-trading commodities on the net, following his investment advisor Jim Rogers, is taking all his time.
7. The 2% of climatologists holding out will throw in the towel making it unanimous...just like an election in Zimbabwe.

;)