Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

Sadly, I disagree. It seems like most people nowdays seek only bias confirmation, not accurate, impartial facts.

By the use of the word, Readership; I cite the interest of those of us who understand the importance of journalists that report the truth. Yes, I do understand that there are many today that believe in the "fun" of creating abstract events to tease and even sometime frighten. However, we who have lived beyond the proverbial three score years and ten know something many youths do not; that the only thing you can rely upon when the chips are down is access to the truth of what is going on.

Today, the planet has entered a potentially very unstable period; we will need access to the truth to solve our problems; where access to a means of violence will become increasingly possible. Violence never solves anything; words spoken in truth are the only weapons of choice for the thoughtful person; in any nation.

Always speak truth to power; NEVER, Ever; Whisper.

[BK]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

Fake news has been going on for a very long time. Read up on good ole Ben Franklin - he new fake news sold papers.

http://hoaxes.org/archive/permalink/silence_dogood
http://hoaxes.org/archive/permalink/...at_mount_holly
http://hoaxes.org/archive/permalink/...tric_kite_hoax

[charliebrown]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

Well I would have never guessed record dow.
Cape and Price/GDP are at nose bleed levels. I am selling into this rally. I am running out of stuff to sell.
And what do I buy? Nothing is cheap.

[Southernguy]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

Dollars: you already bought them


[QUOTE=charliebrown;308876]Well I would have never guessed record dow.
Cape and Price/GDP are at nose bleed levels. I am selling into this rally. I am running out of stuff to sell.
And what do I buy? Nothing is cheap.[/QUOTE

[jk]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

dollars aren't cheap either, although i expect further strengthening.

mexico is cheap.

[llanlad2]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

dollars aren't cheap either, although i expect further strengthening.

mexico is cheap.

Well he's complaining about currency manipulation but all suggested solutions are dollar positive......

White House's Navarro: trade deficit threat to national security

[Chris Coles]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

Well he's complaining about currency manipulation but all suggested solutions are dollar positive......

White House's Navarro: trade deficit threat to national security

Here in the UK, we have sold off so much in some classes, utilities being a good example, yet not a word from our own leadership. Add, that we have had, for many decades now, an economy totally centred upon the need to constantly hike up our basic overhead costs, foisted upon us by "government", leading to a situation where we have not run a surplus to the economy for so long, I suspect that most have forgotten what the term "surplus" means. Now, the overhead cost of the economy is crippling and the people who have driven the thinking gaining ever more titles and back pocket benefits. Like any small business, IMHO it is time to introduce the concept of bankruptcy into the workings of bureaucracy; where failed ideas and their proponents, are automatically thrown out into the street. But then; who really cares? Certainly no one here in leadership.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

...foisted upon us by "government".

HA!

http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/...welfare-state/

[Southernguy]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

On margin debt and the stock market. EJ brought the matter to our attention quite some time ago. Now it's (maybe) worth a look.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...and-the-market

[dcarrigg]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

The President has a lot less to do with the economy than people think.

There has never been a full 10 year stretch without a recession in American history. We're at 8 years without one now. There are always firsts. But what are the odds the business cycle just disappears and recessions stop happening?

My guess is Theranos wasn't a one-off case. I bet you more than half of Silicon Valley is smoke and mirrors.

House prices are back over bubble levels in many metros. We've got a bit more leeway as long as commodity prices stay down. But corporate bonds are still in unprecedented territories.

The tough part isn't seeing how it plays out. It's timing. I thought for sure we'd hit it in 2016. But I didn't foresee what GRG did and the massive oil price crash.

Still, if I can't time it, I'm pretty sure that it's coming sometime during this administration, if not in 2017.

By the way, in case anyone is keeping score, it's just about Turkey Day 2017 now. NASDAQ is above dot com bubble peak levels. Case-Shiller 20 is above housing bubble peak levels. Student, auto and corporate debt are at record levels. Wages are still functionally flat. Connecticut and Rhode Island each have entered or past their third straight month of job losses (they usually lead into recessions and trail coming out of them up here). Geopolitics look no safer than ever. The Eurozone looks as messed up as ever. Politics is as polarized as ever. And inequality continues to climb to new heights unabated.

Oh, and BTW, the US Congress is busy as we speak desperately trying to use every dirty procedure in the book to ramrod an additional $1.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus via tax cut (and then some with front-loading tricks) in time that it will count for 2018. They may talk all Ayn Rand, but they all reach out to prime that pump when the storm clouds gather...

...and of course Moody's started passing out stuff like this last month.

[jk]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

..an additional $1.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus via tax cut (and then some with front-loading tricks) in time that it will count for 2018. They may talk all Ayn Rand, but they all reach out to prime that pump when the storm clouds gather...

it doesn't look like fiscal stimulus or pump priming to me- it's a straight give-away to the corporate class and ultra-wealthy, at the expense of the working, middle and upper-middle/professional classes. it doesn't do anything to stimulate demand.

the limits or disappearance of mortgage interest and state and local tax deductions are aimed straight at professional/educated blue-state residents, with the benefits ultimately going to share buybacks or increased dividends.

i think they figured they squeezed all they could out of the working and lower-middle classes via student loans, for-profit colleges, off-shoring and outsourcing, pumping and dumping, mortgage scams, turning 401k's into 201k's, and then collecting billions in gov't bailouts, so now it's time to go after the assets of the next groups up a rung or two.

the owners of capital are in the process of mugging the middle and upper-middle classes. you don't want to earn your money from labor of any kind, only capital gains and dividends. [well, i guess labor is ok if it's compensated in "carried interest."]

i'm really starting to resent the fact that i pay taxes - i feel like a chump, paying taxes.

[separate issue: killing graduate education doesn't really seem a good way to guarantee a brilliant future. they want theirs, and ours, and yours, NOW.]

[as long as i'm digressing, i wanted to share this from stephanie pomboy re the stock market: it's a harvey weinstein market. Old, bloated but if you don't snuggle up to it it'll cost you your career--until one day, for no apparent reason, its egregious transgressions finally matter.]

[dcarrigg]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

it doesn't look like fiscal stimulus or pump priming to me- it's a straight give-away to the corporate class and ultra-wealthy, at the expense of the working, middle and upper-middle/professional classes. it doesn't do anything to stimulate demand.

the limits or disappearance of mortgage interest and state and local tax deductions are aimed straight at professional/educated blue-state residents, with the benefits ultimately going to share buybacks or increased dividends.

i think they figured they squeezed all they could out of the working and lower-middle classes via student loans, for-profit colleges, off-shoring and outsourcing, pumping and dumping, mortgage scams, turning 401k's into 201k's, and then collecting billions in gov't bailouts, so now it's time to go after the assets of the next groups up a rung or two.

the owners of capital are in the process of mugging the middle and upper-middle classes. you don't want to earn your money from labor of any kind, only capital gains and dividends. [well, i guess labor is ok if it's compensated in "carried interest."]

i'm really starting to resent the fact that i pay taxes - i feel like a chump, paying taxes.

[separate issue: killing graduate education doesn't really seem a good way to guarantee a brilliant future. they want theirs, and ours, and yours, NOW.]

[as long as i'm digressing, i wanted to share this from stephanie pomboy re the stock market: it's a harvey weinstein market. Old, bloated but if you don't snuggle up to it it'll cost you your career--until one day, for no apparent reason, its egregious transgressions finally matter.]

I don't disagree with almost anything you say, except to say the following:

1. Any deficit spending is somewhat stimulative. It is the opposite of austerity by definition.
2. The way the bills are written, especially the senate version, the deficit spending is heavily front-loaded, and most of the middle class pays a much bigger penalty in the out years than the early years.

But the real question is, when you have until 9/30/18 on the Senate rules clock, why you want to push so hard to get something a massively unpopular tax bill effect before the new year.

Simple answer is the president wants to say he accomplished something before the state of the union.
More complicated answer is that maybe republicans in congress see a 2018 recession coming and want to get ahead of it.

Could always be a combination of the 2. Or maybe the third answer you think is to do the damage long enough before November that they hope people forget. But people won't forget.

Every quarterly percentage downturn in GDP tends to correlate with a 2-4% decrease in vote share for incumbents. GOP generic ballot already looks like a bloodbath. Presidential approval rating is unprecedentedly low for this point in a term. An economic downturn will mean near Hoover-level disastrous consequences. My instinct right now, were I among the GOP incumbents, would be to deficit spend as hard as possible and as much as I could given political realities.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

My instinct right now, were I among the GOP incumbents, would be to deficit spend as hard as possible and as much as I could given political realities.

And here in the UK we are about to find out if our own Chancellor of the Exchequer is going to follow through with his own version of deficit spending in the UK Budget next Tuesday..

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

The global economy is growing at 3-3.5 %.
The Dow is up nearly 30% since the election.
I have a hard time imagining that an “unpopular” tax bill will be a deciding factor in midterm elections.
Trump's idiocy. Yes. Screwing with healthcare. Yes. Tax “reform.” I doubt it.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?

The global economy is growing at 3-3.5 %.
The Dow is up nearly 30% since the election.
I have a hard time imagining that an “unpopular” tax bill will be a deciding factor in midterm elections.
Trump's idiocy. Yes. Screwing with healthcare. Yes. Tax “reform.” I doubt it.

I don't know. It's pretty unpopular. Not just in the polls. Look what JK wrote. All sorts of people are going to end up paying a lot more.

1. About 25 million high earning professionals in coastal cities of high tax states who no longer can write off state & local taxes or beyond $500k of home value for the mortgage interest deduction and who lose their student loan interest deductions for either themselves or the kiddies or any write-offs for moving expenses if their jobs relocate them.
2. About 1 million graduate students and others in any given year who are low income earners but who earn tuition waivers/scholarships whose taxes will be increased about 1,000% over night are going to be ripshit. Adding special taxes to private, not-for-profit university endowments is just going to starve the system further for funds that might help offset it.
3. About another 5 million people who work in the energy efficiency or renewable energy industries who are about to see half their jobs vanish when this thing takes all the tax credits and deductions for everything from home insulation to wind turbines away.
4. About 3 million real estate and home construction workers are all lobbying against this sucker right now. That might even be a good thing. But they're not happy about it.
5. Even the National Federation of Independent Businesses is lobbying against this sucker, because it puts the 27 million small business owners at a comparative disadvantage with the big fish compared to now.
6. The way they tinker with healthcare and the Obamacare mandate in there will attract enemies.
7. They actually went so far as to change the law to allow fetuses to open bank accounts and 529s, which is going to piss everyone from pro-choice people to bank administrators who have to figure that nonsense out right off.
8. More culture-warrior stuff is in there too if you read the bill, some of which hasn't even hit the press yet. Like declaring that gender reassignment surgery is always elective for tax purposes (and therefore never deductible). Lots of other little things like that that will piss lots of small groups off (and which were designed to).
9. Want to adopt a kid? You're paying a lot more to Uncle Sam for the privilege under this new plan. Could be about $14,000, something like 30% of the cost of the first $40-something-thousand. I don't know why you'd punish adopters in a bill that has an anti-abortion streak in it, but here we are...
10. Have cancer? AIDS? Kidney failure? Some other super-expensive chronic or acute condition? Guess what? You can't write off those medical expenses any more. Used to be you could write off everything after you paid the first 10% of your annual income to medical bills. Now you have to pay Uncle Sam his full due, no matter how sick you are. Serious healthcare is about to get a lot more expensive, and bankruptcies will pick up. Right now, about three quarters of a million families go bankrupt due to medical bills every year. I suspect that would be over a million the first year this tax bill goes into effect.

Anyways, you get the point. When you start adding all the people who are very badly hurt by this plan up, you start to hit real numbers of millions. And this isn't counting people who are mad that they're slashing the corporate tax and eliminating the estate tax to do it. This is just tens of millions of people who are going to owe Uncle Sam a hell of a lot more money this coming year if this thing passes. They're probably not going to forget that in November, I bet.