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Re: Happy New Year Everyone. Any Guesses On 2017 Markets And/Or Global Activities?
I still think that requires assuming an incredible amount of nationalism for our international elite rulers.
Don't forget, our President-elect makes most of his money in Asia, imported his wives from Europe, and is currently constructing hotel towers all over South America. To think that such a man would have such a nationalist, pro USA streak in him that he would damage his own family and their net worth by advancing US interests at the expense of other countries is kind of nutty.
Then again, I tend to view things through a different lens.
I think of the US/World more as a handful of competing ruling families seeking to advance themselves. They'll ally with other ruling families for a time, as it suits their interests, and the whole group of them will act in concert to suppress middle class wages and benefits and retirements and kill unions or do whatever they can to make sure that their power is not challenged from below. But ultimately, their goal in politics is to advance their families' interests, not to advance a nation or improve the lives of the people within it. Nobody becomes a billionaire to help his fellow man. It's about domination. It's about power and control and exerting one's will over others.
So, through this lens, what would serve the Trump family best?
1. Most importantly, anything that increases the Trump family's wealth and/or power.
2. Anything that puts other ruling families in their debt.
3. Any way to take what is public or what belongs to the middle class and give it to the upper class for the purposes of accomplishing #1-2 above.
4. Any way to crush one or two ruling families to make an example out of them and make other rulers fear the Trump family.
5. Any way to change the rules of the system to increase the power of oligarchs and decrease the power of the working and middle classes.
This isn't unique to Trump by any means. It's just what is happening everywhere. The only thing the incoming Trump Administration does is cut the layer of separation. So now the billionaires will be working in the cabinet directly. No need to keep track of who is sponsoring whom.
Keep in mind, each billionaire / near-billionaire he brings on has family interests all their own. So Betsy DeVos might be at Education, but her family's big interests are in Amway (pyramid scheme) and Constellis Holdings (mercenaries). That means they need to neuter the CFPB, de-regulate finance, make sure DOJ does not go after pyramid schemes, keep labor law regarding ICs vs Employees vague, and they need more war. Without these things, they cannot advance their family position. So the DoEd will be a place where you can trade for these things. The largest owners of for-profit charter schools are the Walton Family. They also have an army of local and state politicians in their pocket. So now when you want something done, this is how one imagines it goes. Pressure is applied in circles. Everyone is friendly, but Trump for the moment captured the top, so he can let them get a bit caty and hash it out if he wants.
Now Vinny Viola as Army Secretary can have some sway as to kicking up some of the wars (and more importantly contracts) that the DeVos family needs to propsper. But his money all comes from program trading and owning an NHL team. So what he needs more than anything is the repeal of Dodd-Frank and de-regulation of program trading. That and maybe someone to bust the NHL player's union. That's how he makes money. But he's not in a position to do this.
And so you go down the list. Ross' money comes from a variety of sources, but mostly he's an expert on privatizing everything, both in the post-Soviet countries and in US cities. He makes his money off selling off chunks of the state to wealthy people. This will be his job at Commerce, just as it was Penny Pritzker's before him. Make sure all new infrastructure is privatized and can extract rents. Sell off all public infrastructure possible. Fees, tolls, and fines are the name of that game. Take what once was free and put a price tag on it big enough to hurt the middle class and keep them from using it, but small enough that rich people aren't inconvenienced in the slightest. Meanwhile, Todd Rickets is in there as his number 2--son of the founder of Ameritrade, he'll be very interested in financial de-regulation. That's what butters his bread. And Wall Street in turn will be very interested in privatization. So they have a backup 40-something in line just in case 80 year old Wilbur Ross can't handle it. Really, Rickets will probably run the day-to-day.
Linda McMahon's money mostly comes from TV, but really from IP. Strict IP enforcement, lengthening of terms, these sorts of things advantage her and her family more than the others. Can't do much at SBA for that, but you never know who's kid needs a loan to match angel funds at their silly startup after they finish their degree at Dartmouth or whatever...it can be a little favor factory.
Meanwhile, Goldman's President Gary Cohn will run the Council of Economic Advisors and set economic policy for the Administration. He, along with (but more than) everyone else on this list benefits from financial de-regulation. And while he won't be running the SEC or CFTC, he'll be in a powerful enough spot to ensure that de-regulation happens. Everyone else here can count on that and use their power to privatize what once was public and soak the pension funds and put a price on what was free and erect tolls, fees, and fines everywhere, which is the other half of the Goldman equation.
This is how these individuals advance their families and the industries their families run.
These are the matters they will be primarily concerned with.
How on Earth does it benefit them to go out of their way to bang around Japan and China or anywhere else? It doesn't. So why would it make sense for them to do so? Out of some weird sense of national pride? Doubtful. I'm willing to bet any actual trade/debt re-negotiation stuff they do will be as red meat for the bread and circus (e.g. for nothing other than minor saber rattling for political theater).
What these people want is more power and more wealth for their families and less for everyone else.
I think expecting them to behave differently is foolish.
And this is coming from someone who has been fooled by others who were bought even more cheaply in the past...but I'm learning.
Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio
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Don't forget, our President-elect makes most of his money in Asia, imported his wives from Europe, and is currently constructing hotel towers all over South America. To think that such a man would have such a nationalist, pro USA streak in him that he would damage his own family and their net worth by advancing US interests at the expense of other countries is kind of nutty.
Then again, I tend to view things through a different lens.
I think of the US/World more as a handful of competing ruling families seeking to advance themselves. They'll ally with other ruling families for a time, as it suits their interests, and the whole group of them will act in concert to suppress middle class wages and benefits and retirements and kill unions or do whatever they can to make sure that their power is not challenged from below. But ultimately, their goal in politics is to advance their families' interests, not to advance a nation or improve the lives of the people within it. Nobody becomes a billionaire to help his fellow man. It's about domination. It's about power and control and exerting one's will over others.
So, through this lens, what would serve the Trump family best?
1. Most importantly, anything that increases the Trump family's wealth and/or power.
2. Anything that puts other ruling families in their debt.
3. Any way to take what is public or what belongs to the middle class and give it to the upper class for the purposes of accomplishing #1-2 above.
4. Any way to crush one or two ruling families to make an example out of them and make other rulers fear the Trump family.
5. Any way to change the rules of the system to increase the power of oligarchs and decrease the power of the working and middle classes.
This isn't unique to Trump by any means. It's just what is happening everywhere. The only thing the incoming Trump Administration does is cut the layer of separation. So now the billionaires will be working in the cabinet directly. No need to keep track of who is sponsoring whom.
Keep in mind, each billionaire / near-billionaire he brings on has family interests all their own. So Betsy DeVos might be at Education, but her family's big interests are in Amway (pyramid scheme) and Constellis Holdings (mercenaries). That means they need to neuter the CFPB, de-regulate finance, make sure DOJ does not go after pyramid schemes, keep labor law regarding ICs vs Employees vague, and they need more war. Without these things, they cannot advance their family position. So the DoEd will be a place where you can trade for these things. The largest owners of for-profit charter schools are the Walton Family. They also have an army of local and state politicians in their pocket. So now when you want something done, this is how one imagines it goes. Pressure is applied in circles. Everyone is friendly, but Trump for the moment captured the top, so he can let them get a bit caty and hash it out if he wants.
Now Vinny Viola as Army Secretary can have some sway as to kicking up some of the wars (and more importantly contracts) that the DeVos family needs to propsper. But his money all comes from program trading and owning an NHL team. So what he needs more than anything is the repeal of Dodd-Frank and de-regulation of program trading. That and maybe someone to bust the NHL player's union. That's how he makes money. But he's not in a position to do this.
And so you go down the list. Ross' money comes from a variety of sources, but mostly he's an expert on privatizing everything, both in the post-Soviet countries and in US cities. He makes his money off selling off chunks of the state to wealthy people. This will be his job at Commerce, just as it was Penny Pritzker's before him. Make sure all new infrastructure is privatized and can extract rents. Sell off all public infrastructure possible. Fees, tolls, and fines are the name of that game. Take what once was free and put a price tag on it big enough to hurt the middle class and keep them from using it, but small enough that rich people aren't inconvenienced in the slightest. Meanwhile, Todd Rickets is in there as his number 2--son of the founder of Ameritrade, he'll be very interested in financial de-regulation. That's what butters his bread. And Wall Street in turn will be very interested in privatization. So they have a backup 40-something in line just in case 80 year old Wilbur Ross can't handle it. Really, Rickets will probably run the day-to-day.
Linda McMahon's money mostly comes from TV, but really from IP. Strict IP enforcement, lengthening of terms, these sorts of things advantage her and her family more than the others. Can't do much at SBA for that, but you never know who's kid needs a loan to match angel funds at their silly startup after they finish their degree at Dartmouth or whatever...it can be a little favor factory.
Meanwhile, Goldman's President Gary Cohn will run the Council of Economic Advisors and set economic policy for the Administration. He, along with (but more than) everyone else on this list benefits from financial de-regulation. And while he won't be running the SEC or CFTC, he'll be in a powerful enough spot to ensure that de-regulation happens. Everyone else here can count on that and use their power to privatize what once was public and soak the pension funds and put a price on what was free and erect tolls, fees, and fines everywhere, which is the other half of the Goldman equation.
This is how these individuals advance their families and the industries their families run.
These are the matters they will be primarily concerned with.
How on Earth does it benefit them to go out of their way to bang around Japan and China or anywhere else? It doesn't. So why would it make sense for them to do so? Out of some weird sense of national pride? Doubtful. I'm willing to bet any actual trade/debt re-negotiation stuff they do will be as red meat for the bread and circus (e.g. for nothing other than minor saber rattling for political theater).
What these people want is more power and more wealth for their families and less for everyone else.
I think expecting them to behave differently is foolish.
And this is coming from someone who has been fooled by others who were bought even more cheaply in the past...but I'm learning.
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