Interest rates......Going up from now on?

[llanlad2]

Re: Interest rates......Going up from now on?

i got rid of my long tsy bonds when the 30yr backed up to 2.3 [now 3.18], but i'm not convinced i won't be buying back in. i'll really be convinced when gary shilling throws in the towel. he's has been correctly calling for disinflation/deflation and descending rates since 1981. and btw, he thinks rates will start going down again.

I found this superb interview with Julian Brigden who called for the bond top back in April and also predicted inflation rather than deflation. It's a wide ranging interview and definitely worth your time. It's downloadable and very listenable. It kicks in on 18 minutes (the opening is market commentary which is really good as well-no sales pitches in it, very honest opinions). A summary of the content is below. It answers a lot of those questions on where inflation is appearing. He thinks 3% interest rates are baked in before any Trump stimulus is added on. Emerging markets are seeing an inflation upturn and he's predicting up to to 5% in China in Q1. Europe is also seeing inflation. I know here in the UK it's definitely kicking in and striking is looking like it's becoming fashionable again.

What is particularly interesting is his take on the Triffin Dilemma. Brigden, similar to Shilling is predicting a massive dollar rally due to a shortfall in global supply of dollars. This will occur firstly as a result of the US not running a large enough current account deficit due to shale oil/renewables etc and secondly a dollar repatriation due to a tax amnesty. This will hit in 2018 causing a major EM crash. And this will drive demand for an alternative reserve and reset but the dollar will still play a key role.

• Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
• Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
• Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
• China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
• Peak central bank omnipotence
• Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
• Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
• Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
• U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
• Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Interest rates......Going up from now on?

I found this superb interview with Julian Brigden who called for the bond top back in April and also predicted inflation rather than deflation. It's a wide ranging interview and definitely worth your time. It's downloadable and very listenable. It kicks in on 18 minutes (the opening is market commentary which is really good as well-no sales pitches in it, very honest opinions). A summary of the content is below. It answers a lot of those questions on where inflation is appearing. He thinks 3% interest rates are baked in before any Trump stimulus is added on. Emerging markets are seeing an inflation upturn and he's predicting up to to 5% in China in Q1. Europe is also seeing inflation. I know here in the UK it's definitely kicking in and striking is looking like it's becoming fashionable again.

What is particularly interesting is his take on the Triffin Dilemma. Brigden, similar to Shilling is predicting a massive dollar rally due to a shortfall in global supply of dollars. This will occur firstly as a result of the US not running a large enough current account deficit due to shale oil/renewables etc and secondly a dollar repatriation due to a tax amnesty. This will hit in 2018 causing a major EM crash. And this will drive demand for an alternative reserve and reset but the dollar will still play a key role.

Thanks llanlad2, for the great find and for making us a summary

[jk]

Re: Interest rates......Going up from now on?

Thanks llanlad2, for the great find and for making us a summary

+1. very interesting.

[jk]

Re: Interest rates......Going up from now on?

I found this superb interview with Julian Brigden who called for the bond top back in April and also predicted inflation rather than deflation. It's a wide ranging interview and definitely worth your time. It's downloadable and very listenable. It kicks in on 18 minutes (the opening is market commentary which is really good as well-no sales pitches in it, very honest opinions). A summary of the content is below. It answers a lot of those questions on where inflation is appearing. He thinks 3% interest rates are baked in before any Trump stimulus is added on. Emerging markets are seeing an inflation upturn and he's predicting up to to 5% in China in Q1. Europe is also seeing inflation. I know here in the UK it's definitely kicking in and striking is looking like it's becoming fashionable again.

What is particularly interesting is his take on the Triffin Dilemma. Brigden, similar to Shilling is predicting a massive dollar rally due to a shortfall in global supply of dollars. This will occur firstly as a result of the US not running a large enough current account deficit due to shale oil/renewables etc and secondly a dollar repatriation due to a tax amnesty. This will hit in 2018 causing a major EM crash. And this will drive demand for an alternative reserve and reset but the dollar will still play a key role.

it just hit me that brigden's model implies the u.s. vis a vis the ims is moving to a position analogous to that of germany vis a vis the euro. and with equally disruptive consequences but without the constraints that are so far containing the eurozone's explosive potential.

after thinking about this interview i moved some money into uup and usdu. [i closed my futures account many years ago, so i couldn't just buy dxy.]