Let's Move On And Talk Economics

[vt]

The elections over. Leave the conspiracy theories to the tabloids.

What will be the outcome of the tax proposals, and if passed, the results for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and sector winners and losers?

We are extremely fortunate to have Finister and hopefully EJ can provide a few gems to get this forum back to the great analysis we've seen before.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

Do you think that's possible? I don't. I bet every serious investor/broker out there is scratching their heads, wondering what to do in the next 6 months. Carry on? Go to cash?

Investing in anything now seems more like guesswork than at any time I can remember, more so now than after 2008. Sectors? Defense and contraceptive stocks are headed upwards.

[touchring]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

Do you think that's possible? I don't. I bet every serious investor/broker out there is scratching their heads, wondering what to do in the next 6 months. Carry on? Go to cash?

Investing in anything now seems more like guesswork than at any time I can remember, more so now than after 2008. Sectors? Defense and contraceptive stocks are headed upwards.

I was looking at stocks that would benefit from self-driving and AI technology early this year. An article suggested that NVIDIA is one of them although I know nothing about the company - I'm also not a gamer. The stock PE is very high, but yet the price keeps going up. I think I should have bought some then.

[Lasher]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

What will be the outcome of the tax proposals, and if passed, the results for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and sector winners and losers?

Forgive the slightly political response, but my impression of Trump has always been that he is looking out for himself. I would guess any policies he shoves through would benefit his businesses. So real estate should benefit at some point soon enough. I don't know enough about his other ventures to say which he can actually enrich through policy, but whatever they are - those are also likely to do well.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

I found this pair of article interesting.
The first one, before the election, set up a hypothetical portfolio.

http://qz.com/805765/trading-tips-ho...mes-president/

The second one after the election looked at the performance of that portfolio for post-election pops.

http://qz.com/836833/stocks-bonds-an...olute-killing/

They claim it did pretty well, short term.
The details of the thinking are in the article, here's the main points.


Short the Mexican peso and go long the Russian ruble
Short the Canadian dollar and go long the Japanese yen
Short the Korean won
Buy pharmaceutical companies
Buy private prison companies
Buy Magal Security Systems
Buy defense companies
Buy Descartes Systems Group
Sell gun stocks
Sell oil companies
Buy gold

[jk]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

the biggest self-benefit trump will get will be for his family - abolishing the estate tax.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

the biggest self-benefit trump will get will be for his family - abolishing the estate tax.

Let's hope not. A huge part of what's going wrong in this country is 1) inequality, and 2) institutional rule by incompetent trustafarians. Abolishing the estate tax simply accelerates both.

[vt]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

This is a provocative view of where interest rates and the economy may go. Does this make sense to you. If not how do you think it will play out? Hoisington is one of the very top bond managers in the market.

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...ov_16_2016.pdf

[jk]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

hoisington and gary shilling share the view that there is an undertow from all the deleveraging that still must be done. however, deleveraging can happen in several ways, including write offs, pay downs and inflation, or of course some combination of these processes [dalio's "beautiful deleveraging"]. gundlach believes we'll get a burst of growth accompanying a burst of more gov't debt to finance a defense build, infrastructure build and big tax cut, and a rise in inflation to perhaps 3% and a nominal gdp of 5% - i.e. still only 2% real growth. then we have a credit crisis.

the question is if and when rising interest rates cuts off any growth.

[lektrode]

Re: Let's Move On And Talk Economics

Let's hope not. A huge part of what's going wrong in this country is 1) inequality, and 2) institutional rule by incompetent trustafarians. Abolishing the estate tax simply accelerates both.

+1

i refer to it as: 'the MBA-ification of amerika'

where this whole generation of over-educated, entitled/spoiled brats has crowned themselves
'masters of the universe' who've been essentially the only ones to benefit as they've
gutted the working/middle-class while shaving pennies/nickles/dimes off of every product or service,
changed for the worse, package sizes, ingredient/process quality, outsourced most of the jobs
that CREATED THE MIDDLE CLASS IN THE FIRST GD PLACE

and then pay themselves millions in bonuses for 'saving pennies' as they disintermediate The Rest Of US from every corporate budget

that would basically be an overview of The Entire 'new' Economy
(just like... uhhh... the 'New Democrats' who run faceflop, twitsville, amaschlong, twistla etc etc)

'one giant step forward for them, 3 giant steps backward for The Rest of US'

all of it ONE Gargantuan FRAUD, all of it headquartered in lwr manhattan