Too Many Old People

[vt]

Demographics Matter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ound-the-globe

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Too Many Old People

Demographics Matter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ound-the-globe

Thanks for that post, vt.

I think the whole line of thinking behind the article is antiquated and incorrect.
It rests on economic theories that assume that only growth in population and growth in the workforce and growth in the exploitation of resources can work.
Although that 's the way we've run the world for the last couple hundred years it is not the only way to do it.
Further, that way of running the world will not work forever, and maybe not now.

Worker productivity is now orders of magnitude higher than it was a hundred years ago.
We struggle to find jobs for millions of people yet we still have plenty of everything.

Our great grandchildren will live better lives on a planet with less than 8 billion people on it.
A new sort of economy will be worked out that operates well in stasis or gradual population decline.
Our descendants will have more room and more resources per person, and be happy and healthy.

The economic principals and structures refined in the 1800's tell us forcefully that the new static/declining population can't work and disaster will ensue.
I think those principals are becoming obsolete and wrong, despite their 200 year track record.
Those principals were built for a big undeveloped world running on brute human labor that exploited vast untapped forests and fisheries.
Using words from mathematics, the initial conditions and boundary conditions have changed so much that the equations we formerly trusted are becoming incorrect and unhelpful.

[jk]

Re: Too Many Old People

one should also note that the labor participation rate of over-65's has been rising markedly for some time. i don't have a graph handy, but dshort at advisorperspectives has been documenting participation by age cohort.

[touchring]

Re: Too Many Old People

one should also note that the labor participation rate of over-65's has been rising markedly for some time. i don't have a graph handy, but dshort at advisorperspectives has been documenting participation by age cohort.

This is the current trend because no one wants to do the burger flipping jobs that over-65s often do, but it won't work out in the long run as automation and AI take over many jobs.

http://newsexaminer.net/food/mcdonal...run-by-robots/

Our great grandchildren will live better lives on a planet with less than 8 billion people on it. A new sort of economy will be worked out that operates well in stasis or gradual population decline.
Our descendants will have more room and more resources per person, and be happy and healthy.

I don't think our great grandchildren will be living happy lives. They will be living in fear when ISIS/Al Qaeda terrorists (or whatever names they will call themselves in the future) carry 1 megaton cold fusion devices the size of a backpack.

Those who inherited big fortunes will have the luxury of living in mountain bunkers outside of cities that will look nothing like the cities today.

[jk]

Re: Too Many Old People

in my limited circle almost everyone i know who is over 65 and still working full or part time is a well-compensated professional or manager. among my patient population it appears that retirement is chosen only by blue collar and low level management personnel. some of these are continuing to work out of necessity however - they don't have the resources to retire.

i think many who are choosing not to retire or at least to delay retirement beyond the historical "normal" retirement age [i.e. they could retire but choose not to] because:
1. they are relatively healthy and vigorous compared to earlier generations.
2. they find their work interesting and meaningful.
3. they have no interest in relocating or living in a "senior" community, but want to stay in their own homes and community indefinitely.
4. some may prefer avoiding a negative cash flow scenario even if they can afford it.

[littleshark]

Re: Too Many Old People

in my limited circle almost everyone i know who is over 65 and still working full or part time is a well-compensated professional or manager. among my patient population it appears that retirement is chosen only by blue collar and low level management personnel. some of these are continuing to work out of necessity however - they don't have the resources to retire.

i think many who are choosing not to retire or at least to delay retirement beyond the historical "normal" retirement age [i.e. they could retire but choose not to] because:
1. they are relatively healthy and vigorous compared to earlier generations.
2. they find their work interesting and meaningful.
3. they have no interest in relocating or living in a "senior" community, but want to stay in their own homes and community indefinitely.
4. some may prefer avoiding a negative cash flow scenario even if they can afford it.

And #5...Have to support recent college grad with no job but expensive lifestyle.

[jk]

Re: Too Many Old People

And #5...Have to support recent college grad with no job but expensive lifestyle.

i've seen that one, too.