Want to help VirZOOM?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Hey, the FREDs have fixed the problems with the website!
It's all working again!

I think I will go back and edit out my last rant with the insulting photo.

Thanks again FREDs

[shiny!]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Hey, the FREDs have fixed the problems with the website!
It's all working again!

I think I will go back and edit out my last rant with the insulting photo.

Thanks again FREDs

Page 2 of this thread is still a blank white page. Page 3 works.

BTW, if you find yourself on a blank white page and use Firefox, click on View at the top of the browser window, then click Page Style, then click No Style. It'll disable the stylesheet that seems to be choking on something. The page won't be formatted but all the content will be there.

[seobook]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Looks like GRG55 is onto something, yet again... (is he ever wrong? )
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ame...ses-2016-08-05

American Airlines Group Inc. announced Friday a deal to give "significant" pay raises to 30,000 of its union employees, effective immediately. ... Under terms of the deal, raises will range from 15% to 36% for maintenance and related employees, 245% for fleet service workers, 31% for tower planners and 55% for weight and balance planners.

[lektrode]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Page 2 of this thread is still a blank white page. Page 3 works.

BTW, if you find yourself on a blank white page and use Firefox, click on View at the top of the browser window, then click Page Style, then click No Style. It'll disable the stylesheet that seems to be choking on something. The page won't be formatted but all the content will be there.

MANY THANKS, ms shiny!
that fixed it (good nuff anyway)

[lektrode]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

American Airlines Group Inc. announced Friday a deal to give "significant" pay raises to 30,000 of its union employees, effective immediately. ... Under terms of the deal, raises will range from 15% to 36% for maintenance and related employees, 245% for fleet service workers, 31% for tower planners and 55% for weight and balance planners.

oh gawd NO - wonder if this will (might) 'all of a sudden' = INFLATION?!!

gasp!

in the apparent 'establishment convention' that price increases are only 'inflationary' if wages go UP

[jk]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Looks like GRG55 is onto something, yet again... (is he ever wrong? )
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ame...ses-2016-08-05

it's 24% for fleet service workers, not 245%. just clarifying for those who don't bother to go to the link. the article implies this is part of an ongoing collective bargaining process. whatever the process, though, those are big wages. the airlines have been doing very well with high load factors and the price of fuel down. i'm sure aa would be very reluctant to trigger a work stoppage.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Also taxing capital gains as income at a higher rate is excessive double taxation

How is it double taxation on a simple stock investment? You buy 10,000 $ worth of Apple. It triples to 30,000. You sell it. You are taxed on the 20,000 profit.

[santafe2]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

it's 24% for fleet service workers, not 245%. just clarifying for those who don't bother to go to the link. the article implies this is part of an ongoing collective bargaining process. whatever the process, though, those are big wages. the airlines have been doing very well with high load factors and the price of fuel down. i'm sure aa would be very reluctant to trigger a work stoppage.

Now that airlines have nearly mastered passenger load algorithms, they can afford to pay the staff required to run the airline. It's good for staff but worse for passengers. The next hurdle is focusing on the passenger as the customer. Even Southwest is happy to be just a bit better than the competition and has moved to the standard hub and spoke model. I think the next move will be back to point-to-point.

[gugion]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Greenspan is right. The next surprise is inflation.

EJ, I am not complaining about your lack of articles since 2014 (I will continue being a member because I know that when the turn is imminent, you will let us know), however it would be nice for an update every now and then about when you expect to release your next article or a quick sentence/paragraph about your views on markets/economy at present. I know you are busy running a company, but a little something every now and then would be great. Letting us know that inflation is the next surprise is great, but it is quite unclear about what that means for everything else in the economy/markets. Is this inflation you speak of going to be part of The Janszen Scenario? Is it going to be led by oil? What will inflation mean for the FED and bonds? In your last article in 2014, you mentioned you were going to write a whole separate piece about the bond market, but I don't think that was ever released, was it? At the very least, some knowledge about when you expect to release a new article would be appreciated, if nothing else. Thanks for all you do.

[vt]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Guigon,
I agree that an article would be helpful and EJ did say he'd like to provide an update. But he also said nothing much has changed since that article to write about. That is the problem with managed markets; they are not real and difficult to discern.

Whenever I miss the articles I find vital information by rereading the 2014 one carefully and all of EJ posts since. There is a lot of very valuable insight in his posts.

[seobook]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Even lawyers who were living with another couple to afford rent are now writing Medium posts about the bay area being in a price bubble that prices them out of the market.

"our monthly payment would be $12,177 a month in mortgage, taxes, and insurance. That’s $146,127 per year — an entire professional’s income before taxes. This is unaffordable even for an attorney and a software engineer." https://medium.com/@katevershovdowni...n-f7b6facd94f5

Added: And some of the bay area startups that just have to be there are opening offices in far cheaper US cities, where they can hire full time staff for less than they were paying freelancers
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/22/bu...n-arizona.html

“The Bay Area’s explosive growth is almost too much for the region,” said Jackson Kitchen, an analyst at Moody’s Analytics. “They are bidding up wages so high that companies are saying, ‘Let’s expand to Phoenix or Boise or Salt Lake City where wages and real estate are that much cheaper.’”

Indirectly, of course, this is also good for the Bay Area’s tech cluster, allowing companies to grow faster and make jobs more appealing. By expanding to Arizona, for example, Weebly was able to turn freelance customer service representatives into full-time employees.
...
For Ms. Rogers and others, that is a far bigger perk than an extra vacation or a raise in California. Instead of renting a rundown house in Redwood City and commuting an hour or more to work, she now lives 10 minutes from the office in a house that is twice the size — with mortgage payments that are half the cost of her California rent.

[touchring]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Anyone also playing Pokemon Go? I nearly walked into a wall the first time I played it.

[vt]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Virtual Reality is helping paraplegics too:

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...ain/ar-BBvvtf5

[gugion]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

Guigon,
I agree that an article would be helpful and EJ did say he'd like to provide an update. But he also said nothing much has changed since that article to write about. That is the problem with managed markets; they are not real and difficult to discern.

Whenever I miss the articles I find vital information by rereading the 2014 one carefully and all of EJ posts since. There is a lot of very valuable insight in his posts.

I guess my problem is he says nothing has changed, but is that true? He predicted a crash (though I know he said he wasn't as sure about it as prior crashes), when the S&P 500 was around 1850. The market is now around 2200, so how has nothing changed? We did get a crash, but the crash happened 15% higher than he predicted and price only crashed back to around where he predicted the original crash (1850 on the S&P). And how about the market consolidation from mid 2014-mid 2016. That was 2 years where the market did nothing and having some clarity from EJ on what was happening during that time would've been great. I know he has written some stuff on the forums and some of it has been extremely timely (ie he called the market bottom in February 2016 based on oil not falling any further) and that was a great call, but I had to search the forums to find it and also, he usually backs up his calls with some great analysis. Again, I understand he thinks nothing has changed, but that doesn't quite jive with what the market has done. Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't expect or even WANT ej to write an article every quarter or whatever if it isn't needed. The last thing we need in this industry is more daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly updates of someones opinions on the market. With the internet and the 24-hour news cycle, we have too much of that already. However, it has been almost 3 years since his last article, so even something minor, even just a few paragraphs as an update to his original 2014 article would be great. I'll continue being a paying member here, and happily so. Like you said, the information here, even in his old articles from years ago, are some of the best and most unique analysis I have ever read. He could absolutely charge much more for his analysis, so I can't complain too much. In particular, his theory on GAGFO just completely blew my mind. I have not seen any other analysis on gold and oil that come close to the work he's done on GAGFO. I don't know how he does it, but somehow he perfectly combines fundamentals, realpolitik, market psychology, and dinner-table real-world skepticism and combined them all into a perfect "Theory of Everything". I very much look forward to his next article(s), when the time is right, of course. I wouldn't want EJ to release an article that is released sooner at the expense of accuracy and knowledge.

[vt]

Re: Want to help VirZOOM?

EJ did not predict a crash.


"The stock market crash that was the market's response to the collapse of the mortgage credit bubble was difficult but also not impossible to forecast. My forecast in December 2007 was for a 40% decline in the DJIA in 2008. The decline was 38% actual. The model was a property credit crisis induced recession.

But the current circumstances are without precedent. I expect that the policy responses will be equally unprecedented. Uncharted territory.

As I said the direct purchase of equities and corporate bonds cannot be ruled out, and I don't think the short side of that trade if it happens will a good place to be."


And 1/22/16:

"My views remain unchanged since early 2013.

No reason to test your patience by repeating myself.

Why am I not concerned about the asset market correction since Yellen's predictable politically motivated .25% rate hike?

I can sum it up this way:

Fake markets. Fake crash.

I'll let you know when I think a real crash is coming as I did in 2000 and 2007."


So he said in the article this is not a good time to short and no crash yet. In an answer to a question the did say that the 10 year Treasury yield would drop from 3% to 1.6%, which happened. When I saw this I said to myself "Wow, what a great time to buy long term government bonds!" Since rates were already low one surmises it's not a long term play, but certainly better than stocks.

Long term Treasury bonds returned 27% vs 14% in the S&P 500 in 2014. Bonds beat stocks in 2015, and are matching stocks year to date. This was actionable information but you must read very carefully.

You must read and reread EJ. He packs a lot of key points in his articles.

EJ did suggest the S&P 500 could go as high as 2,600, while saying it could correct some. The problem, as EJ has repeated, is that bonds have been manipulated since 2009 and more recently stocks too. EJ has given far more clarity in understanding where we are in this fantasy than anyone else I follow.