Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

[Techdread]

Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/07/05/yield-curve-shows-60-chance-of-recession-deutsche-bank-says/

I find it ironic that it's one of the Banks whom may be the catalyst for the next crisis which is issuing this warning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articl...european-banks

[dcarrigg]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/07/05/yield-curve-shows-60-chance-of-recession-deutsche-bank-says/

I find it ironic that it's one of the Banks whom may be the catalyst for the next crisis which is issuing this warning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articl...european-banks

It's never good to see an uptick in commercial/industrial loan delinquencies either...

[lektrode]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

never mind whats happnin in the 'commodities' sector (of the shiny sort)

and dunno about what you're seeing over there on the right coast, dc - but my local obs is that:
there isnt an empty parking stall to be found ANYWHERE in new car lots OR used car lots, new or used RV lots.

contradicting all the 'everything's awesome' story (party) line we see pert near daily?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

never mind whats happnin in the 'commodities' sector (of the shiny sort)

and dunno about what you're seeing over there on the right coast, dc - but my local obs is that:
there isnt an empty parking stall to be found ANYWHERE in new car lots OR used car lots, new or used RV lots.

contradicting all the 'everything's awesome' story (party) line we see pert near daily?

As it happens, I had some business out by Norad 3 weeks ago, so I got a good look around. Inventory looked super low. Now, that's just German imports to the east coast, so it's by no means the whole picture. But tens of thousands of empty parking stalls there.

BEA data shows things are kind of weak. Not super weak. Maybe 2016 ends with 2008 or 2011 numbers...not abysmal 2009 numbers though.

Still begs the question why all the tech giants are so keen to place their bets on auto--a struggling old industry with sales numbers persistently declining over decades at home and plateauing global sales through the 2010s. Asia growth has slowed a lot, and China alone can supply about 70% of it now.

[jk]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

i think the tech giants are not trying to enter the traditional auto market. tesla is, but not google et al. the latter want to disrupt the traditional market- the future they aim for will have fewer cars, all self-driven, and [almost] all owned by uber-like companies. individuals and families will not own [so many] cars. traffic will be lower, there will be little need for parking. cars will drop you at your destination and then go to local holding pens. tech will control this new industry, and they'll also data mine all your travel.

[seobook]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

Still begs the question why all the tech giants are so keen to place their bets on auto--a struggling old industry with sales numbers persistently declining over decades at home and plateauing global sales through the 2010s. Asia growth has slowed a lot, and China alone can supply about 70% of it now.

i think the tech giants are not trying to enter the traditional auto market. tesla is, but not google et al. the latter want to disrupt the traditional market- the future they aim for will have fewer cars, all self-driven, and [almost] all owned by uber-like companies. individuals and families will not own [so many] cars. traffic will be lower, there will be little need for parking. cars will drop you at your destination and then go to local holding pens. tech will control this new industry, and they'll also data mine all your travel.

I think part of this comes down to there are only so many hours in the day & between what they have on mobile devices and desktop/laptop/tablet they probably got about as many hours as they are going to get until more time moves over from TV...but even with Netflix the preferred model for that time might be an ad-free experience. Routing traffic & recommending businesses along the way seems like an easy way to profit so long as all the risk is pushed onto someone else.

I saw in a WSJ article the other day Tesla's owner manual mentions how their "autopilot" may not stop to prevent hitting parked cars. There was a quote from a VC with a Tesla that rear ended a park car who said something like "if you don't hit the breaks it is your fault for not paying attention. if you do hit the breaks it is your fault because you disengaged the autopilot when you hit the breaks."

[vt]

Re: Yield Curve Shows 60% Chance of Recession

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/