Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

[Mega]

Why?

Why were the British people given the chance to vote on membership of the EEC?

Its puzzled me for some time, then i think the truth began to drawn.

Back in 2009 when the sh1t had hit the fan in an silly monment the Dutch PM was asked a question, remakably he gave a truthful answer:-

"Sir don't you know what to do?"
"yes, but we just can't work out how to get re-elected afterwards".

Its taken them 7 years, but they sussed it............they need some one to carry the can, take the blame......most euro-nation's are one party states with two branches (Red team/Blue Team). Neither team wants the blame.....oh sure they nimble around the edges but to attempt to row back from 30 years of neo-lib tax/spend & push off the debts for another team to deal with.....one day over the rainbow.

Sadly (Snigger) that day has come......to make matter worst 10 years of low or zero intrest rates have killed the pensions. One by one they starting to blow up & a trickle is about to become a flood...........so what to do?

Well, "They" could take us to war, but given their track record against even small nations (Iraq/Vietham etc) they end up looking silly. War on a major World power like Russia/China & they:-

A. Get their ass kicked
B.End up DEAD.

So, the war option is out..........."They" need to hit the reset, a debt jublee................but how?

I think this "Vote" is nothing of the sort, they are telling us what will happen (it will any way) if we DARE vote leave.......which is what they want us to do.

If we do vote leave, well "They" are FREE to do whatever the Hell they like because they "warned" US what would happen & you silly English you voted to leave..........

Ok, it sounds like Mon talk, Alex Jones...............but it does fit the picture..................any way we see Friday as its too tight to call right now.

Mike

[FrankL]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

the explanation probably is much more simple than that...

Cameron thought he could use the referendum as a bargaining chip for European Union reforms; the EU called his bluff, thinking that nobody would be stupid enough to really let their population decide on something like that (as the corporate lobbies and financial industry in EU countries mostly are terrified of losing access to the common market).
Cameron then loses control over part of the conservative party that really wants the vote and actually is promoting the Brexit option... and that's where we are today.

I think the UK and EU governments are actually very scared of this vote:
Today two pieces of 'advice' arrived in my letterbox, urging me to vote for remain, or ELSE.....
One from 'YouGov', addressed to me (seemed like some form of government communication), and one in a closed envelope, from Lord Alan Sugar, addressed to my girlfriend. Just a small detail: she's French, and therefor cannot vote for this referendum, which makes the letter appear like a rushed job of sending letters to names pulled from some sort of list).

Anyway, they're too late, I've already send in my vote for Brexit last week, by post.
I sincerely hope that if they already checked the postal votes, that the results gave the establishment a really big fright.

- Frank

[shiny!]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

the explanation probably is much more simple than that...

Cameron thought he could use the referendum as a bargaining chip for European Union reforms; the EU called his bluff, thinking that nobody would be stupid enough to really let their population decide on something like that (as the corporate lobbies and financial industry in EU countries mostly are terrified of losing access to the common market).

The Brexit referendum is non-binding. If "leave" wins, Parliament can, and probably will, ignore it.

[FrankL]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

The Brexit referendum is non-binding. If "leave" wins, Parliament can, and probably will, ignore it.

There are too many conservative MPs who support Brexit. If Brexit wins, then those MPs will probably grab power in the Conservative party, and start with all the preparations to execute accordingly.

[icm63]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

Mega,

The Scottish ballot papers to leave the UK had no name and address on them.

The BREXIT ballot papers are the same (from web searchs). Can you confirm this..

This means they can rig the result.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

On my part, I have for some time concluded that Cameron had set out to promote Leave; while at all times, look as though he wished for Remain.

Mega's (Mike's), analysis is correct. My regular attendance at financial/banking conferences has taught me that the entire financial services industry is braced for a complete collapse.

With the greatest of respects Shiny! there is no way a UK government can ignore this referendum; this is a long running sore, the previous failures to provide a referendum. Indeed, if it were not for the likes of UKIP and Nigel Farage, it still would have never happened.

If they rig the result, with the certainty that Her Majesty The Queen has an acute interest in the result; and they are found out; the UK would be in a very complex place. No one in their right mind would want to go there; absolutely no one!

Regardless of the end result tomorrow; each of us has to accept the result and find a way forward without incrimination of another point of view. If we do not stand for fairness and the right for each to express their individual opinion; we would abrogate our long history of leadership. As a people; we stand for the truth; or we are nothing!

[bungee]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

there is no way a UK government can ignore this referendum;

If there is a vote to leave, even a large one, they will just start "negotiations" for a new EU-UK deal. They will quickly conclude that the UK can’t get a better deal than the current one, get some possible opt-outs that will be overthrown by the EU court at a later date and then have another referendum until the right result is obtained. This is what happened in Ireland. If there is a small majority to leave it will be even easier to hold a second referendum with some imaginary changes in order to get the right result.

The chance of Cameron triggering the article 51? leave EU mechanism is very remote as this would need a majority and MPs to vote for it and that will just not happen, the vast majority of MP’s are in favour of staying in. Even if the anti EU conservative rebels kicked out Cameron and made Boris their leader they would not be able to force labour to vote with them to leave the EU.

Corbyn would just want to go back to the EU to ‘negotiate’ a better deal then another referendum.

The only hope is that the EU collapses on a leave vote and there is no EU to stay in. This is the only way the UK will leave the EU, when the EU dies.

I hope I am wrong but I just can't see a leave happening, the EU tenticles are everywhere.

[GRG55]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

If there is a vote to leave, even a large one, they will just start "negotiations" for a new EU-UK deal. They will quickly conclude that the UK can’t get a better deal than the current one, get some possible opt-outs that will be overthrown by the EU court at a later date and then have another referendum until the right result is obtained. This is what happened in Ireland. If there is a small majority to leave it will be even easier to hold a second referendum with some imaginary changes in order to get the right result.

The chance of Cameron triggering the article 51? leave EU mechanism is very remote as this would need a majority and MPs to vote for it and that will just not happen, the vast majority of MP’s are in favour of staying in. Even if the anti EU conservative rebels kicked out Cameron and made Boris their leader they would not be able to force labour to vote with them to leave the EU.

Corbyn would just want to go back to the EU to ‘negotiate’ a better deal then another referendum.

The only hope is that the EU collapses on a leave vote and there is no EU to stay in. This is the only way the UK will leave the EU, when the EU dies.

I hope I am wrong but I just can't see a leave happening, the EU tenticles are everywhere.

It's not the UK government that will ignore the results, it will be the people that lost the vote whichever way it goes. The fractious debate will not go away.

Personally, I have never believed the Leave campaign has ever had enough votes to win, regardless of what some of the polls have suggested. The undecideds will almost certainly end up siding in favour of the status quo. I think the Remain camp is going to win by a sufficiently decisive margin today that it won't be able to be argued that votes were rigged, or the wishes of "the people" unclear.

Nevertheless, just like the separatists in Catalonia or Quebec, the Leave cohort is simply not going to go away and this will be divisive for the UK and the EU as it continues to fester.

I remain firmly of the view the Euro currency zone collapses (at Germany's instigation) long before there is any serious threat to the EC trade bloc participations

[Mega]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

Its tight, but Leave are ahead ish

[Chris Coles]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

Well, well well! Over the whole nation; taking account of the dominant "Stayers in Scotland and Northern Ireland; the vote comes out at 52% Leave, 48% Stay. Then we lose Cameron and Europe says it wants us out like pronto!!

We are leaving the European Union.

[Mega]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

[Mega]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

I be writting up a full report later

[astonas]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

GRG55, I deeply respect your contributions on this site, and when it comes to the oil patch, I'd take your opinion over literally any other analyst I've encountered. I mean that entirely sincerely. On that, on flying, and some engineering questions that come up, you rock it. No doubt.

But as you well know, on Europe, we simply don't see eye to eye.

This moment is unsurprisingly no different.

For instance, I distinctly recall that this...

I remain firmly of the view the Euro currency zone collapses (at Germany's instigation) long before there is any serious threat to the EC trade bloc participations

...wasn't remotely the longstanding claim that I remember. I do remember, however, your assertion that Germany would be the FIRST TO LEAVE the EU, a claim was repeated very forcefully on several occasions.

I'd love to quote them directly, and when I encountered this post, immediately tried to do so, but found that the well-worn Crisis in Europe thread has apparently been moved behind the paywall, and therefore out of my reach. (No wonder I haven't found anything I wanted to respond to here for a long time!)

Even if we were to assume that the recent stance represents the sincere evolution of a position that has been justified since I stopped being able to follow it, the conclusion it ultimately pointed to ...

Personally, I have never believed the Leave campaign has ever had enough votes to win, regardless of what some of the polls have suggested. The undecideds will almost certainly end up siding in favour of the status quo. I think the Remain camp is going to win by a sufficiently decisive margin today that it won't be able to be argued that votes were rigged, or the wishes of "the people" unclear.

... was pretty clearly not correct.

Brexit is a complex matter, that can nonetheless be summarized succinctly: it ultimately stems from an incompatibility in European monetary and economic perspectives, which eventually came to a head. The validity of each of these perspectives can certainly be debated, and we've gone so many rounds on that topic here that I've simply lost count. But a single nefarious state is just not the best answer, and obviously so.

It may be worth re-evaluating some assumptions in your paradigm.

Not because I say so, or because of what anyone thinks or feels about it.

Just because when it's been put to the test, the model it forces one into consistently predicts the incorrect outcome. However intuitive, passionate, or apparently logical the appeal of it is, it isn't a model that works.

[jk]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

my recollection is that grg55 said that germany was the most likely country to leave the eurozone, i.e. the euro currency, not the eu.

[astonas]

Re: Mega goes full INFOWARS (Britex vote)

my recollection is that grg55 said that germany was the most likely country to leave the eurozone, i.e. the euro currency, not the eu.

... and since you can refresh your recollection by looking at the thread in question, I'm more than happy to defer to your recollection, jk! Thanks for the correction.

However, I'll stand by my larger point, which is that analyzing the situation in Europe, with its many various challenges, as a continuing act of aggression by a single central nation on all others is not only simplistic, but has consistently failed to predict next outcomes. Holding Brexit to be unlikely is merely the latest of these. It really is time to let this model go.

And I'll re-iterate that this isn't meant to be a slight on GRG55. Like I started with earlier, he's repeatedly shown himself to be an excellent analyst, and on some subjects, absolutely brilliant. I just think there may be one or more assumptions underlying this particular reasoning that needs to be reexamined. Missing such an assumption is an error we've all taken our turns making. Well, at least I'm sure I have.