Blockchain update

[DSpencer]

Re: Blockchain update

That's exactly how things were at the start of the dot-com bubble. Remember K-Tel (the companies that sell compilation music albums)? Back then, there was another company whose name I forget that saw a massive stock price increase. The company sold fish or something; it's business was totally unrelated to the Internet and couldn't really benefit from the Internet.

This was some time between 1996 and 1998. I wonder if that's where we are in this latest everything bubble. The idea of waiting another 4 or more years for sanity to return in a ZIRP environment is unnerving.

For those who follow him, Jeremy Grantham's latest quarterly news letter is out. Grantham himself believes that this overpriced market will deflate over *20* years; i.e., no crash as in 2000 or 2008.

$24 million iced tea company says it's pivoting to the blockchain, and its stock jumps more than 200%
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long...ock-soars.html

It's truly at the point where you can't tell satire from reality.

[touchring]

Re: Blockchain update

It’s unraveling now. So EJ is right after all?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Blockchain update

It’s unraveling now. So EJ is right after all?

It has a long, long, long way to fall for that to be the case.

I think capitulation and crypto doom could still be quite a way off.

And WHEN the crypto bubble pops like the dot com bubble, I reckon the developing world will provide some of the better indicators of what rises from the ashes.

[Southernguy]

Re: Blockchain update

Unravelling indeed....down 30% through the night..

[touchring]

Re: Blockchain update

It has a long, long, long way to fall for that to be the case.

I think capitulation and crypto doom could still be quite a way off.

And WHEN the crypto bubble pops like the dot com bubble, I reckon the developing world will provide some of the better indicators of what rises from the ashes.

crypto as of now is just an extension of what goes on in Macau except it is unregulated and governments don't get to tax it.

[DSpencer]

Re: Blockchain update

It’s unraveling now. So EJ is right after all?

Is EJ right about what?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Blockchain update

Unravelling indeed....down 30% through the night..

I don't know........

"Too early to say?!?!"
https://mediamythalert.wordpress.com...1968-not-1789/

There's been quite a few Bitcoin crashes already.

Wouldn't a bitcoin/crypto crash need to be far more severe/decisive in order to achieve some form of capitulation?

http://fortune.com/2017/09/18/bitcoin-crash-history/

I agree it's going to happen(and them I'm going in bigger into crypto beyond just the current Ethereum/NEO).

But unless Bitcoin takes another 1/2 similar haircuts in short order, it still "feels" like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu0rP2VWLWw

I reckon the Estonians are taking a pretty pragmatic approach to living in the near future today(or soon):
https://medium.com/e-residency-blog/...t-310aba7f3790

[touchring]

Re: Blockchain update

I agree it's going to happen(and them I'm going in bigger into crypto beyond just the current Ethereum/NEO).

But unless Bitcoin takes another 1/2 similar haircuts in short order, it still "feels" like:

I’m onto this as well. But something that is legal and supported by governments and banks. The bitcoin market as it is now is basically a rigged casino with insiders controlling prices going up and down and cheating from newbie punters. With billions to be earned and more profitable and less risky than selling crack, in no time, the mafia will be into the game. The nerds will stand no chance. It’s crazy to think that it won’t be regulated in the near future.

[Southernguy]

Re: Blockchain update

"in no time, the mafia will be into the game."
They already are
Goldman Sachs launching trading desk for bitcoin, report says

[vt]

Re: Blockchain update

https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog....09.jpeg?w=1024

[touchring]

Re: Blockchain update

This guy is giving away part of his Bitcoin cache. It's a great thing to do but charities are not going to hold onto Bitcoins. They will convert to cash the moment they receive it. Because Bitcoin value fluctuate so greatly and charities need cash for their work more than anything else and are risk adverse, they will not keep cryptos.

I think this is the biggest threat to the value of a crypto because the value of an asset depends on people willing to hold on it. Just like nobody gives away real estate or picassos like it's free. Real estate are kept and rented out. Picassos are kept at home or in the office for visitors to admire or rented to museum. Even fiat currency is kept in money market accounts to earn meagre interest. If it can be given away freely, it will be difficult to justify the high price in the long term.

In order for a crypto to be valuable in the long term, it must be interest or dividend bearing.

http://www.newsweek.com/pineapple-fu...charity-758196

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Blockchain update

In order for a crypto to be valuable in the long term, it must be interest or dividend bearing.

That's not true. Gold pays no interest or dividends and it's valuable. An item is valuable so long as there is someone willing to offer something else of value for it. Some years ago, a casino (Golden Palace) paid $25,000 or so for William Shatner's kidney stone.

A crypto currency will be valuable as long as a sufficient number of people desire the crypto currency. A dividend or interest is not a necessary condition for that demand to exist.

I think the real question is, "What makes people desire something?"

In my opinion, crypto currencies are desired because prices have gone up tremendously and there is an expectation that they will continue to do so. "It's trending." I believe this comprises most of the speculators currently buying crypto coins.

There is a smaller (but very vocal) group of holders of crypto coins (and perhaps buyers of new crypto coins) who are Libertarians or something who seek an overthrow of the current fiat currency systems with something that is less subject to dishonest manipulations.

[touchring]

Re: Blockchain update

That's not true. Gold pays no interest or dividends and it's valuable. An item is valuable so long as there is someone willing to offer something else of value for it. Some years ago, a casino (Golden Palace) paid $25,000 or so for William Shatner's kidney stone.

This is true, but I'm referring to the long term. In the short term, anything can be speculated and become very valuable. The basis of all pyramid scheme is to sell something that has no actual value at a high price.

As for gold, it doesn't pay interest but it is a commodity that can be converted into jewelry and sold for money. I would consider gold a raw material.

Bitcoin is suppose to be money. If it's money, it should be able to be lent out for interest?

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Blockchain update

This is true, but I'm referring to the long term. In the short term, anything can be speculated and become very valuable. The basis of all pyramid scheme is to sell something that has no actual value at a high price.

In the long term, it is possible that there will be demand for a crypto currency that does not pay interest or dividends.

Also, I do not believe it is fair to call crypto currencies Ponzi schemes or pyramid schemes since crypto currencies are not 100% predicated on fraud as Ponzis and pyramids are. Mind you, I am no champion or defender of crypto currencies and I still believe that what's going on with crypto currencies is utter madness (which I blame almost entirely on the central banks for their decades of gross incompetence and corruption.) Whenever this latest bubble ends, the vast majority of crypto coin "investors" are going to be blown out.

Bitcoin is suppose to be money. If it's money, it should be able to be lent out for interest?

Bitcoin has failed as money because of its incredible volatility, which impacts people's willingness to transact in it. As for borrowing and lending Bitcoins, I think the sheer number of dishonest people doing things with Bitcoin make all participants wary of lending (deadbeat borrowers never had any intention of repaying) or borrowing (lender will hire an assassin if one cannot repay.)

But that doesn't mean Bitcoin or any other crypto currencies cannot have value in the future.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Blockchain update

In order for a crypto to be valuable in the long term, it must be interest or dividend bearing.

http://www.newsweek.com/pineapple-fu...charity-758196

Hypothetical examples:

Crypto A: offers a 5% dividend every year in perpetuity

Crypto B: offers 5% network participant, transaction #, and transaction $ growth monthly in perpetuity.

Token A is an interest bearing token no different than a traditional bank CD.

Token B is an economic ecosystem platform built on Metcalfe’s Law of network effect.

All else being equal at the start, which token will create the most long term economic value?