Tesla model 3.........discuss

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

The deposits are a wash - if I receive 1/3 Billion in customers deposits I have to record an current liability of 1/3 billion$.

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Set aside the massive cash burn and liabilities to take a look at the supply chain.

Motor for the Tesla Motors is built by Fukuta http://fukuta-motor.com.tw/ - Fukuta is a small privately held Taiwan based company and Tesla represents more the 30% of the revenue for Fukuta. Fukuta's outside investors include China Steel Corp and we all know about the little financial trouble in China. How quickly will Fukuta be able to build the drive units and will Fukuta be able to ramp production while maintaining quality?

[jk]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

The deposits are a wash - if I receive 1/3 Billion in customers deposits I have to record an current liability of 1/3 billion$.

that's what happens to your books. in the meantime you have 1/3 billion to play with. deliveries will be delayed. some people will ask for a refund of their deposits, many or most will wait because of the amazing things they expect. this could go on for a long time. if tesla goes broke, the liability goes to money heaven.

[santafe2]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Meanwhile there are lots of unfilled orders for ModelX

Complete illusion... anyone remember all the PowerWall Presales...http://gizmodo.com/teslas-gigafactor...der-1703077367

From the original Bloomberg article as reported in your linked Gizmodo article: What’s funny is that everyone seemed to think Tesla jumped into the home battery market to keep the factory busy while waiting for the demand for electric cars to increase! Now Musk might have to build a whole new factory just to produce all the batteries for homes.

Your takeaway is that it's a "complete illusion". Bloomberg reports massive success and reason to believe they will need another factory for this product.

You should take a note from Bundi and stay focused on profits, or the lack there of. This is what will kill Tesla in the end. Gigafactory sales are not an illusion, they've been sold too well and they're going to have to continue to debt finance this growth too quickly. There will come a day when the music stops but it's not helpful to refer to Tesla as a Ponzi scheme. Highly levered and very dependent on growth leading to profitability but hardly a Ponzi scheme.

Where we agree is with regard to the "growth leading to profitability", part. I don't think it will happen. Tesla is one big economic downturn away from understanding how over leveraged they are.

As for your statement that, "Today, everyone is all excited about the model x ,,,,, and the model won't ship for one year." I'm assuming you mean the Model 3.

[DSpencer]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

The deposits are a wash - if I receive 1/3 Billion in customers deposits I have to record an current liability of 1/3 billion$.

In other words, what you said earlier in this thread was just completely wrong:

A deposit creates more of a liability than an asset for a company.

You have bought puts on Tesla (mentioned in another Tesla thread). Then you go on the internet and make completely false claims about Tesla's accounting. You double down by saying that you have a degree in accounting. This could be construed as a short and distort attempt, albeit an ineffective one. To top it all of, you call Elon Musk a "financial fraud". Seems a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Please check with EJ - creator of this site... I worked with EJ long ago..... and he knows I am not fibing or fabricating data to support my investment. Beside the idea that my commentary could turn the market on Tesla Motors is crazy.

Dspencer - what do you know about the alternating current induction servo motor used in Tesla Motors? If you want to learn more you can read about it here: www.wmkelleher.com

[santafe2]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Please check with EJ - creator of this site... I worked with EJ long ago..... and he knows I am not fibing or fabricating data to support my investment. Beside the idea that my commentary could turn the market on Tesla Motors is crazy.

Dspencer - what do you know about the alternating current induction servo motor used in Tesla Motors? If you want to learn more you can read about it here: www.wmkelleher.com

Musk acknowledged their motor issues when these issues occurred. This quote from Musk from a November 2015 article:

We are very happy with the quality of the drive unit. We changed the goal of the drive unit endurance from being approximately 200,000 miles to being a million miles – just basically we want drive units that just never wear out. That’s our goal. I think we made really good progress in that direction. the drive unit that are going out now and for the last several months have been excellent.

Seems like an admission, Musk style, that the motors before that time were problematic.

There's more here, but I'm not so interested in the author's opinion as the above quote from Musk.

http://www.treehugger.com/cars/elect...orking-it.html

My expectation is that Tesla will continue to make incremental progress with their technology and vehicle output. But, I think the world will catch up with them before they've reached a sufficient scale to achieve profitability.

This may be where we completely disagree. I think it will be an existential threat that takes down Tesla. You think it's internal. We'll know in time.

No one has mentioned Apple on this thread which must be giving Musk sleepless nights as they develop whatever it is they're developing for the vehicle market. After Musk's comments about the engineers Apple stole from them, I doubt there's any love lost between these two companies. Tim Cook looks like a nice guy but I'm sure he's a raptor if you're a competitor.

[DSpencer]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Please check with EJ - creator of this site... I worked with EJ long ago..... and he knows I am not fibing or fabricating data to support my investment. Beside the idea that my commentary could turn the market on Tesla Motors is crazy.

I've edited my post to reflect that I don't know what your intentions are, just what it looks like.

Dspencer - what do you know about the alternating current induction servo motor used in Tesla Motors? If you want to learn more you can read about it here: www.wmkelleher.com

You want me to read this blog with a single post from 6 months ago, written by you that tries to cast Tesla in a negative light? And it has absolutely nothing to do with the accounting issue we've been discussing. Ironically, while googling this "secret" motor supplier I found this thread:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...o-tesla.57299/

Lo and behold, there you are only with the handle of "Avenger". It's page after page of you making absurd comments (until you were banned) and dozens of other members refuting your nonsense with video evidence of motors being produced in house (filmed for a well-known TV show) and multiple first hand accounts of people who were at Tesla's Fremont plant. There's also a link to your twitter feed. And wouldn't you know it, it's filled with almost nothing other than post after post bashing Tesla.

So with a few minutes on the internet we know you have: a website, a twitter profile, and 2 message board profiles where you spend your time bashing Tesla. If this isn't a smear campaign motivated by your short position in Tesla, then Elon Musk must have run over your dog in his Model S. It reeks of a sad attempt at stock manipulation. I almost felt bad when initially making that accusation, but I see now that people in the other forum beat me to it and it did nothing to make you rethink your behavior.

If you want EJ to defend your ethics, YOU ask him to do so. Personally, I think he should ban you. There's value in disagreement and discourse. I find no value in you putting out false assertions, appealing to your own authority to back them up and never admitting that you were wrong/lying. Especially when there is good reason to question your motivation behind doing it.

[patrikkorda]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

This is what separates iTulip from any other forum; great people doing due diligence.

Many here, including myself, think Tesla will eventually fail; but many of the things that BK has been writing are simply wrong (e.g., Tesla is a Ponzi scheme). The typical hedgehog can be found on any forum, but what makes iTulip great are the many critical and foxy minds that are present.

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

DSpencer,

Lots of regular folks will be crushed when this Tesla Motors bubble POPS!

My sister lost $80K in the CMGi bubble POP even after I begged her to sell. When I see a wrong I call it out.

False assertions - lets first look at the data from Long Beach port and search for AC induction servo motor (this is the motor built by Fukuta and shipped to Tesla Motors) http://portexaminer.com/search.php?s...N+SERVO+MOTOR&

I won't bore you with data from the Taiwan ports that shows shipments of motors from Fukuta to Tesla Motors for 2016 because it won't change your view.

Best Regards.

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Look at the insider sales for management team and BOD. For example, Kimbal Musk regularly exercises his stock options and sell the shares the same day.

The insiders are dumping shares as quickly as possible. What else have I said that is wrong or unfounded????

[santafe2]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Lots of regular folks will be crushed when this Tesla Motors bubble POPS!

It seems apparent that DS outed you as the troll on the Tesla Motor Club site. The guy who annoyed a tolerant group of people for almost six months until you posted over 20 of your screeds in one day and they banned you. Is that true?

I won't bore you with data from the Taiwan ports that shows shipments of motors from Fukuta to Tesla Motors for 2016 because it won't change your view.

Again from the Tesla Motors Club site, a native Chinese speaker admonished you that you were making incorrect assumptions on your translation of what Fukuta said about their relationship with Tesla.

What else have I said that is wrong or unfounded????

Everything.

[astonas]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

This is what separates iTulip from any other forum; great people doing due diligence.

Many here, including myself, think Tesla will eventually fail; but many of the things that BK has been writing are simply wrong (e.g., Tesla is a Ponzi scheme). The typical hedgehog can be found on any forum, but what makes iTulip great are the many critical and foxy minds that are present.

Indeed. And thanks for catching this one, DSpencer! I was genuinely unsure what to make of the whole Tesla thing (though not having a dog in the fight either way, I'll admit I hadn't tried too hard).

I've scrolled through BK/Avenger/wmkelleher's posts, and it's pretty clear there is nothing there but desperate attempts to either talk a short book, or indulge raving conspiracy theories.

Thanks for helping keep iTulip free of trolls!

[BK]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Troll. Does Astonas realize I've been active on this site for years while Astonas activity goes all the way back to April 2016... Hmm. I suspect the Tesla bulls are angry with folks speaking the truth. Kind regards http://www.itulip.com/forums/member.php/5324-astonas

Astonas- my activity for itulip is here.... speaking the truth for many,,,,many....,many years... ;-) http://www.itulip.com/forums/search....479&pp=&page=4

[astonas]

Re: Tesla model 3.........discuss

Troll. Does Astonas realize I've been active on this site for years while Astonas activity goes all the way back to April 2016... Hmm. I suspect the Tesla bulls are angry with folks speaking the truth. Kind regards http://www.itulip.com/forums/member.php/5324-astonas

Astonas- my activity for itulip is here.... speaking the truth for many,,,,many....,many years... ;-) http://www.itulip.com/forums/search....479&pp=&page=4

Posting a search link that is restricted to only include the current month stills fail to hide that the difference between our Join Dates is a year and a half, and that I've posted 377 times more than BK.

Seriously, how deceptive can one get? Does it really make sense that people will click that, and conclude based on it that I've only posted three times?