Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

[chene]

Re: Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

Oil averaged $100 a barrel in 2011, 2012, 2013 and half of 2014. I don't remember economies being crushed.

Economy is not doing very well since 2008. That's why interest rate are so low since.
It's not absurd to say that 45 month of oil above 90$ helped the oil fracking industry but did not helped the recovery.



I thought that one of the central analysis of this forum was the acknowledgment that Peak Cheap Oil (PCO) was real. Art Berman is globally consistent with this thesis.





PCO generated a short term over-production (due to high price) that do not erase PCO

There is less affordable oil in the ground before this over-production phase that after ...

Curious to hear our expert GRG55 on this topic ...

[EJ]

Re: Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

Economy is not doing very well since 2008. That's why interest rate are so low since.
It's not absurd to say that 45 month of oil above 90$ helped the oil fracking industry but did not helped the recovery.



I thought that one of the central analysis of this forum was the acknowledgment that Peak Cheap Oil (PCO) was real. Art Berman is globally consistent with this thesis.





PCO generated a short term over-production (due to high price) that do not erase PCO

There is less affordable oil in the ground before this over-production phase that after ...

Curious to hear our expert GRG55 on this topic ...

Within the PCO cycle is a new and unforeseen by me factor: the U.S. as a global swing producer, displacing the Saudis.

Meaning the resulting delay in the inevitable may last longer than oil longs can remain solvent, if they're borrowing to finance their positions.

Otherwise the name of the game is patience.

The other thing were doing is VR. VR is on a shorter and more evident trend.

[Mega]

Re: Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

But EJ........................ GOLD getting KILLED !

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

But EJ........................ GOLD getting KILLED !

]

Gold is the highest it's been since mid 2014. I suspect the gold/oil ratio is one of the highest on record---it's oil that's being killed.

look at this !!!


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...orm-2016-02-16

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Kunstler Interviews Art Berman

Within the PCO cycle is a new and unforeseen by me factor: the U.S. as a global swing producer, displacing the Saudis.

Meaning the resulting delay in the inevitable may last longer than oil longs can remain solvent, if they're borrowing to finance their positions.

Otherwise the name of the game is patience.

The other thing were doing is VR. VR is on a shorter and more evident trend.

"Swing" is right. Note that on the oil chart, non-conv oil peaked at about 15 Million Bpd, only 5 years after the boom started in 2010.
Conventional oil is still > 80 million bpd. So if the peak is in on "non conv" we will not have long to wait.

A 2X increase in price could increase both types of oil production substantially.