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**metalman** · January 15, 2011, 11:28 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

good to have you back grg. voices of moderation stifled in the usa also...

After Tucson shootings, Sarah Palin isn't retreating, she's reloading

In many ways, Sarah Palin mirrors the ethos of the gun-rights movement she promotes: never back down. Criticized for her rhetoric in the aftermath of the Tucson shootings, she's since posted a combative defense on Facebook and signed up to speak at a hunting and gun convention.

**flintlock** · January 15, 2011, 01:22 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

So there is a chance this "revolution" in Tunisia will spread?

**lakedaemonian** · January 15, 2011, 04:05 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Force ranked immediately following my efforts to retain my family's net worth is a desire to understand HOW all this economic mess is going to impact the 3rd world from a security/stability perspective.

I echo GRG55's concerns about Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.....probably in that order.

My biggest concern is the direct/indirect blowback rising food/energy inflation will have on the 3rd world, developing world, and 1st world.

In a nutshell my thoughts are as follows:

If food prices in the US move from 10% of income back to 15-20%(as they were a number of decades ago) it will be inconvenient for many, difficult for many, and a serious shock to some, but would there be a serious risk of MASS civil unrest and insurrection? I doubt it...danger of dark populism yes, coup no.

If food prices in the developing world move from say 25% to 50% of average income I would think the risk of civil unrest, insurrection, insurgency, dark populism, coup, etc go up dramatically.

If food prices in the 3rd world go from 50% to 75%+ of average income I would think the risk of civil unrest, insurrection, insurgency, dark populism, coup, etc are almost guaranteed bar EXTREME measures by government to maintain the current government/regime.

I would also guess 3rd world and developing nations that rely on the importation of a significant % of their food/energy to feed their people and run their nations are at risk of running into a wall.

I'm no SME on Algeria/Tunisia, but I would think that all things being equal(which of course they aren't), they would be less at risk of food/energy related civil unrest, particularly Algeria...than other nations in the region/world...due to the fact they both produce a fair bit of energy and food so likely a bit less reliant on expensive imports.

Here's a link that mentions Jordan joining the food price protests(not sure of the source quality):

http://www.greenprophet.com/2011/01/...tests-tunisia/

As far as GRG55's post on the next conflict/crisis coming from where we least expect it, I've been quite curious about how things are going to go long-term for Northeast Africa.

Egypt's big population is totally reliant on The Nile.......and while Egypt has a large military, it's ability to project significant power is limited and has a history of failure(Yemen in the 60's). It's goign to be interesting to see how it pans out.

Will Ethiopian, Sudanese, Uganda, Tanzanian, Kenyan, and Rwandan upstream farmers STOP diverting more and more of the Nile to support their own domestic food needs and potential export income just to keep downstream Egyptians thousands of kilometers away happy? The higher food prices go, the more I doubt it.

As far as Bhutto goes, it looks like she's now being portrayed as a saintly martyr in the West:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwAPubfJ0r8

Scotland Yard Report on the Assassination:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h...uttoreport.pdf

UN Report on Assassination:

http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Pa...5April2010.pdf

Drama 3 years later:

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogsp...der-cover.html

Pakistan sounds like a violent soap opera, with nukes.

**flintlock** · January 16, 2011, 01:20 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I'd say considering the region's importance to oil this could be a potential black swan event in the making.

Agree 100% with you that increase in food prices in the US unlikely to cause a big stink. Not in the short term at least. But time is not on our side here. 20% or so permanently under or unemployed does not bode well during climate of cutbacks and tax hikes. By 2012 I could see some civil unrest breaking out, sure.

**GRG55** · January 16, 2011, 01:57 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Originally posted by flintlock View Post

So there is a chance this "revolution" in Tunisia will spread?

In these situations it is always difficult to accurately distinguish between cause and effect. Did what happened in nearby Algeria have an influence on what happened in Tunisia? Who can know for certain...

The first link below is from 2008 and contains a map showing the many places where food price related riots broke out. Just a small reminder...

Who is fighting over food?
A map of where there have been food riots.

Algerian riots resume over food prices

Police deployed around mosques and football matches suspended amid protests over food prices and unemployment

**lakedaemonian** · January 16, 2011, 02:17 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I suspect we are going to be hearing a LOT more from the Muslim Brotherhood in one shape or form over the next decade or two.

Assad may have dealt with them decisively at Hama in Syria back in the early 80's...and Egypt may have arrested and tortured them into the shadows, but I always wondered if it was only a matter of time for them to reawaken once presented with the right opportunity to capitalize on.

**GRG55** · January 25, 2011, 12:44 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

It would appear this isn't going away any time soon. Worth keeping an eye on...

The article makes reference to demonstrations in the Cairo suburbs of Mohandessin and Maadi. Mohandessin ["engineer" in Arabic, an honoured profession in Egypt] is a suburb inhabited mostly by professionals, and Maadi is an extremely popular suburb with the western expatriate crowd and embassy officials.

Egyptian police fire teargas at protesters

Unrest is spreading outside the capital

Published: January 25 2011 15:10 | Last updated: January 25 2011 15:41

Egyptian security forces fired teargas and water cannon to try to disperse thousands of anti-government demonstrators who gathered in the centre of Cairo, the capital, as they sought to emulate the success of demonstrators in Tunisia...

...The protests showed signs of spreading outside Cairo. Reports spoke of police stopping and searching would-be demonstrators as they made their way to Mahalla al-Kubra, a textile town that has been the site of protracted labour disputes, and of arrests in Alexandria, Mansoura, Assiut and Tanta, major regional centres...

**don** · January 25, 2011, 01:34 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

self explanatory

**GRG55** · January 27, 2011, 03:24 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

Sorry Jim; didn't mean to be cryptic. Egypt has a lot of similarities to Pakistan. No bomb, but some of the same strong-man/police-state issues along with an aging President, Hosni Mubarak, working hard to engineer a succession by his son Gamal, in an allegedly democratic republic, which isn't going down well with many of the 70 million or so Egyptians crammed into the Nile valley.

Like Pakistan, the military is the power center in the country, which has been ruled continuously by military leaders since Nassar's coup in '53 (Mubarak is the former head of the Air Force). Maintaining confidence in the army is vital since no one has any confidence in any of the political institutions. Even Egypt's official version of the October 1973 war, for public consumption, is structured around a "great victory" for the army based on it's early success in that failed attempt to oust the Israeli's from the Sinai Peninsula.

It's not as visibly unstable as Pakistan, but beneath the surface there's a lot of trouble brewing, kept in check by Mubarak's strong-man methods. Methods so brutal that they raised protest even from the USA over the treatment of opposition leader Ayman Nour after the 2005 Presidential election. Methods that include maintaining the official "state of emergency", and suspension of the right to trial, since Anwar Sadat's murder in 1981. All of this is not a sustainable situation.

Like Pakistan, Egypt is a US ally and receives considerable funding to prop up this regime. Recall that Al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman Al Zawahiri, used to head Egypt's Islamic Group, responsible for a number of political and civilian assassinations, including attempts on Mubarak, before merging it into Al Qaeda.

A successful terrorist attack on a Saudi oil installation or terminal would, at most, disrupt the flow of some oil for a few weeks or perhaps a month or two. A revolution in Saudi Arabia, that displaces the Al Saud family from power, would be met with a coordinated effort by much of the rest of the world to contain the effects on oil supply, as the loss of that supply would be a problem for many countries, not just the USA.

The really big problems always seem to come from unexpected sources. While Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan have been hogging the headlines from the Middle East for years, it's chaotic Pakistan, not Iran, that already has nuclear weapon capability and it's Egypt, not Iraq, that poses a great risk of change to a regime inimitably hostile to western interests in a populous Islamic nation.

Mubarak might yet survive this, but I doubt it. That the US State Department and the White House are making statements such as..."We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time to implement political, economic and social reforms to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people,"...is utterly laughable. The guy has been in power since 1981, supported by massive amounts of US financial aid. From Bloomberg: "...More than 80 percent of U.S. aid to Egypt, or $1.3 billion, is in the form of military assistance, according to data supplied by the U.S. State Department. With Obama in power, military aid has stayed unchanged from the Bush-era. Under Obama, economic assistance has been cut from $411 million in 2008 to $250 million, with the phasing out of democracy-linked programs..."

Maybe Obama could lend Mubarak one of his "Change You Can Believe In" speeches...

The heat is on!

El Baradei returns to Egypt calling for democracy

By JPOST.COM STAFF
01/27/2011 09:23

Self-exiled opposition leader publishes manifesto for toppling Mubarak regime: "It is time for a change; the only option is a new beginning."

Democracy activist, Mohamed ElBaradei, is expected to return from Vienna to Egypt on Thursday following this week's protests, laying out his manifesto for change in Newsweek.

"I am going back to Cairo, and back onto the streets bcause, really, there is no choice," ElBaradei wrote. "So far, the regime does not seem to have gotten that message."

"The Egyptian people broke the barrier of fear, and once that is broken, there is no stopping them," he explained.

"Each day it gets harder to work with Mubarak's government, even for a transition," ElBaradei wrote. "He has been there 30 years, he is 83 years old, and it is time for a change...The only option is a new beginning."...

..."The regime, like the monkey that sees nothing and hears nothing, simply ignored us," ElBaradei explained...

...In addition, ElBaradei slams American relations with Egypt, saying that the West applies "a double standard for your friends...siding with an authoritarian regime just because you think it represents your interests." He expresses incredulity at Clinton's assertion, after riots in Tunisia, that the Egyptian government is stable and "looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."...

The leading Egyptian activist for democracy says the West is convinced "that the only options in the Arab world are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists."...

...In October, ElBaradei, a former head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency, joined the Muslim Brotherhood in calling to end Mubarak's reign and boycott what he called "phony" elections in Egypt. He said he has "total ideological and intellectual disagreement" with the Islamic group, but they agree that they "want a democratic Egypt."

Protests In Egypt Enter Third Day

January 27, 2011

Protests in Egypt against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak have entered a third day.

Small groups of demonstrators assembled early on January 27 in the capital Cairo and the city of Suez.

Meanwhile, prominent reform campaigner Mohamed el-Baradei -- who recently headed the UN's nuclear watchdog -- is due to arrive in Egypt from his home in Vienna.

Analysts say his arrival could strengthen protests that so far have lacked a leader.

In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called on close ally Egypt to adopt broad reforms and not crack down on antigovernment protesters.

"We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time to implement political, economic and social reforms to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," Clinton said.

Clinton's appeal came after police in Cairo fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse protesters, some of whom hurled stones at police and burned tires.

In Suez, protesters set alight a government building.

At least four people have been killed in the unrest.

Some 860 people have been rounded up, and Facebook, Twitter and cell phones -- which have played a role in organizing the protests -- have been disrupted.

Obama Poised to Intensify U.S. Criticism of Egypt’s Mubarak

January 27, 2011, 12:03 AM EST

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The White House is prepared to step up its criticism of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a key Middle East ally, if his government intensifies its crackdown on protesters, said an administration official.

President Barack Obama privately pressed Mubarak in a telephone call last week to embrace democratic changes, said the official, who requested anonymity. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday said Mubarak, in power since 1981, has an “important opportunity” to enact economic, political and social reforms...

...The U.S. has a major stake in what happens in Egypt, the most populous Arab nation, a moderate voice in the Muslim world and a key player in Middle East peace efforts. Egypt is the fourth largest recipient of American aid after Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel, based on the State Department’s budget request for the current fiscal year...

...Obama, who came to power promising the Arab world a ‘‘new beginning,’’ runs the risk of being discredited if he appears to back an increasingly violent crackdown that belies his message of encouragement for human rights and freedom of speech.

The White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs created some ambiguity yesterday when asked whether the administration still supports Mubarak. In his response that ‘‘Egypt is a strong ally,’’ he avoided repeating Mubarak’s name...

jk · January 27, 2011, 07:56 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

the u.s. is clearly trying to position itself for mubarek's [possible] fall, but i doubt that a successor regime will be friendly to u.s. interests, irrespective of the verbal games now being played by u.s. spokesmen.

**GRG55** · January 27, 2011, 08:54 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Originally posted by jk View Post

the u.s. is clearly trying to position itself for mubarek's [possible] fall, but i doubt that a successor regime will be friendly to u.s. interests, irrespective of the verbal games now being played by u.s. spokesmen.

The "first" successor regime may not be in anyone's interests...as it may prove too unstable to accomplish anything more than to make it obvious that the military may have to step in to deal with the resulting chaos of a Mubarak departure. It's fine for El Baradei, the Muslim Brotherhood and other political factions to align themselves towards the shared goal of ousting Mubarak...but what happens when they get their wish? We can hope a military government isn't necessary, but the odds are not favourable. And, at a minimum, there won't be any government [that lasts] that doesn't have the backing of the military in Egypt.

jk · January 27, 2011, 09:58 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

at a minimum, there won't be any government [that lasts] that doesn't have the backing of the military in Egypt.

this is also true in pakistan. do you happen to know anything about islamist leanings within the egyptian military? [i imagine this is a hot topic right now in certain world capitals.]

**LorenS** · January 27, 2011, 12:22 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

this is also true in pakistan. do you happen to know anything about islamist leanings within the egyptian military? [i imagine this is a hot topic right now in certain world capitals.]

Back in the late 80's we had Egyptian military officers on our Army base for training. They seemed very friendly - but how can you tell what they really think? - and are those guys even high enough rank by now to make a difference?

I hope someone is paying attention, this is the kind of analysis that makes or breaks foreign policy.

**GRG55** · January 27, 2011, 12:22 PM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Originally posted by jk View Post

this is also true in pakistan. do you happen to know anything about islamist leanings within the egyptian military? [i imagine this is a hot topic right now in certain world capitals.]

History suggests the military is pragmatic, but let's realize the whole of the Arab world is steadily becoming more conservative. The Egyptian Army isn't immune from this multi-decade trend. The military leadership will want to preserve and enhance its considerable political power, and possibly try to expand its direct economic influence as well [perhaps taking a page from Iran, where the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution controls large swaths of the economy].

Informed word here in the Persian Gulf tonight is that the US government wants Mubarak gone and is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Ties between the USA and the Muslim Brotherhood go back to the Cold War era when the CIA supported the MB against the firmly Soviet-aligned government of Gamal Abd'el al-Nasser. But that's all history, and means nothing today. The MB also has an excellent network into important parts of the Arab media, especially Al Jazeera. The MB is probably the only political organization that can form a stable government in Egypt, as long as it can come to some accomodation with the army - not unlike the situation in Turkey.

No matter what, expect a more conservative Egypt after the dust settles...

**GRG55** · January 28, 2011, 01:07 AM

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

It's the Muslim Holy Day here in the Middle East, the mosques will be full this morning and the streets in Egypt and elsewhere likely much more active than usual this afternoon...

There's a growing view that the USA has given up on trying to balance stability vs "democracy" in this region, and is now pursuing a policy of "fragmentation"...as the only way to deal with the perpetual ecclesiastical schism across the region, and preserve its interests.

The US role in Sudan [to promote the referendum to separate the Christian south from the Muslim north], the potential descent of Lebanon back into civil war, the recent escalation of violence against the Coptic Christians in Egypt, and other sectarian hot spots are suggesting that change. All still speculation, but now out in the open here...

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