Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

[Prazak]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Your updates are better than anything I'm reading in the mainstream press. Thanks for posting!

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

It's the Muslim Holy Day here in the Middle East, the mosques will be full this morning and the streets in Egypt and elsewhere likely much more active than usual this afternoon...

There's a growing view that the USA has given up on trying to balance stability vs "democracy" in this region, and is now pursuing a policy of "fragmentation"...as the only way to deal with the perpetual ecclesiastical schism across the region, and preserve its interests.

The US role in Sudan [to promote the referendum to separate the Christian south from the Muslim north], the potential descent of Lebanon back into civil war, the recent escalation of violence against the Coptic Christians in Egypt, and other sectarian hot spots are suggesting that change. All still speculation, but now out in the open here...

Just in case some folks back in the Lower 48 or Sarah's Alaska were unaware of this [can't hardly imagine that happening]:

Sudan Hopeful of Improved Relations with Washington

January 27, 2011

A senior member of Sudan’s governing National Congress Party (NCP) has welcomed as a positive step a decision by the U.S government to move ahead in normalizing ties with President Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s administration.

This came after Khartoum allowed a recent referendum that will determine the future of the semi-autonomous south Sudan...

...U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Sudan's Foreign Minister Ali Karti in Washington Wednesday. Secretary Clinton reaffirmed the U.S. willingness to take steps toward normalizing relations with Khartoum, as it meets its commitments under the peace agreement and finds a resolution to the separate conflict in the troubled Darfur region...

...The United States has offered Sudan a range of incentives if it peacefully accepts the results of January's referendum, which is likely to lead to independence for southern Sudan. They include improved relations, lifting sanctions and dropping Sudan from a list of state sponsors of terrorism...

...State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters Wednesday that removing Sudan from the terrorism list will begin after the referendum results are finalized.

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Thought it might be timely to return to this old thread...could be an interesting year.

I've been in the Persian Gulf since New Year. Interesting vantage to observe the reaction from the January 3rd assassination of Salman Taseer, Governor of the Punjab Province in Pakistan, and now the fallout from Tunisia as it spreads through the region...

...

A new truth dawns on the Arab world

...And so where are we going? Could it be, perhaps, that the Arab world is going to choose its own leaders? Could it be that we are going to see a new Arab world which is not controlled by the West? When Tunisia announced that it was free, Mrs Hillary Clinton was silent. It was the crackpot President of Iran who said that he was happy to see a free country. Why was this?

In Egypt, the future of Hosni Mubarak looks ever more distressing...And all the while, across the Middle East, we are waiting to see the downfall of America's friends. In Egypt, Mr Mubarak must be wondering where he flies to. In Lebanon, America's friends are collapsing. This is the end of the Democrats' world in the Arab Middle East. We do not know what comes next. Perhaps only history can answer this question.

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

...Egypt has a lot of similarities to Pakistan. No bomb, but some of the same strong-man/police-state issues along with an aging President, Hosni Mubarak, working hard to engineer a succession by his son Gamal, in an allegedly democratic republic, which isn't going down well with many of the 70 million or so Egyptians crammed into the Nile valley.

Like Pakistan, the military is the power center in the country, which has been ruled continuously by military leaders since Nassar's coup in '53 (Mubarak is the former head of the Air Force). Maintaining confidence in the army is vital since no one has any confidence in any of the political institutions...

Anybody watching the news out of Egypt today will be seeing this scenario now playing out. The police and security forces are nowhere to be seen today in any of the major cities, and the army is now maintaining order, not by clamping down on public gatherings, but by setting up checkpoints to maintain public order, and making it clear that it will not interfere with the demonstrations against the government, nor will it enforce the curfew, unless there is violence. The police are not trusted, but the army is - at least to some degree. People are climbing on the tanks and having their pictures taken with army personnel.

It's pretty clear the army is now the real power in control of the country, not Mubarak. So far it has not publicly withdrawn support for Mubarak and his chosen successor, Omar Suleiman, but the army does not appear to be inclined to take orders from them to act against the demonstrators either. Interesting times indeed...

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Your a little behind the times. Since the 'televised' confession of Bhutto of Pakistan's murder of Osama Bin Laden led directly to her death. Nothing to do but kill her- put Mr. 10 % on the throne (better a greedy idiot than an idealistic thief (who knows when they would refrain from 'oooh shiny'?!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIT_onkcWjg

[Shakespear]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

It's pretty clear the army is now the real power in control of the country, not Mubarak. So far it has not publicly withdrawn support for Mubarak and his chosen successor, Omar Suleiman,

This is a Strudel Affair. I read that Suleiman is/was Head of the Intelligence Services. Suleiman is elevated to be running the country.

Now WiliLeaks leaks info that "seems" to be lighter fluid for some of these Liberation Movements. Leaks are from the US, and the info should be in control of US intelligence and it gets loose. I sense choreography in all this.

On top of this "suddenly" Al Jazeera gets a hold of Palestinian documents regarding negotiations with Israel. "Exposing" traitors who call themselves Leaders of the Palestinian People. Sudan spitting into two, Somalia embraces the Pirates of the Caribbean as a new business model.

Something smells funny in all this. It feels more like shake down of maybe Saudi Arabia (chess moves are never obvious) as all around it things are falling apart and OIL demand is not likely to go to zero and selling it in any currency but $$$ will not be looked upon kindly. So this is a deep chess game here.

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Typical DEBKA, always entertaining, some of it useful, some of it highly questionable. The closing line (emphasis mine) is complete nonsense...Pakistan has always been the greater nuclear threat as a perpetually unstable nation in a chronically unstable region, & holding the original "Islamic bomb". The Dec 13, 2001 Pakistan state sponsored attack on India's Parliament House should have been more than enough to dispel any doubts, but that very telling incident was lost on much of the western world in the aftermath of 9/11 and run-up to war in Iraq.


Keep an eye on Egypt. It has the potential to become a bigger concern with more important implicaitons than any attack on Saudi oil facilities or a revolution that displaces the House of Saud...

...The really big problems always seem to come from unexpected sources. While Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan have been hogging the headlines from the Middle East for years, it's chaotic Pakistan, not Iran, that already has nuclear weapon capability and it's Egypt, not Iraq, that poses a great risk of change to a regime inimitably hostile to western interests in a populous Islamic nation.

I found a re-read of this thread, including the exchange with EJ about public confidence in military competency, a useful reminder in light of what has happened since January of 2008. The Arab Spring may have officially started in Tunisia, but it was populous and influential Egypt finally blowing up that gave it legitimacy across the region...and it ain't over by a long shot...

Egyptian army back in the spotlight as crisis deepens

Saturday, 08 December 2012

AL ARABIYA

Generals in Egypt are back on the media spotlight with speculations that the country’s most powerful men may once again step in the political crisis and push the president aside to claim the reigns.

In a replay of the Jan. 25 revolution, protesters on Saturday mounted military tanks in Cairo calling on President Mohammed Mursi to withdraw his decree of wide powers on Nov. 22.

On Saturday, the military urged political forces to solve their dispute via dialogue saying it would take the country into a “dark tunnel,” hinting military intervention...

...A senior Muslim Brotherhood official welcomed the army’s remarks as “balanced” and neutral. Former Foreign Minister Amr Moussa, now an opposition leader, said the army was simply responding to an “enormously dangerous situation.”

The army started to assert itself again, sealing off the presidential palace with tanks and barbed wire, saying it “realizes its national responsibility in protecting the nation’s higher interests,” and state institutions.

The state-run daily al-Ahram reported that Mursi would soon authorize the military to help police keep order and give it powers of arrest under a decree approved by the cabinet. It did not say when the decree would be issued.

Nightly protests degenerated into clashes this week between Mursi supporters and opponents leaving seven people dead and more than 640 injured.

The tens of thousands of Mursi foes who surged past tanks and barbed wire to reach the palace gates on Friday night had dispersed, but a hard core stayed overnight in a score of tents...

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I found a re-read of this thread, including the exchange with EJ about public confidence in military competency, a useful reminder in light of what has happened since January of 2008. The Arab Spring may have officially started in Tunisia, but it was populous and influential Egypt finally blowing up that gave it legitimacy across the region...and it ain't over by a long shot...

Egyptian army back in the spotlight as crisis deepens

Saturday, 08 December 2012

AL ARABIYA

Generals in Egypt are back on the media spotlight with speculations that the country’s most powerful men may once again step in the political crisis and push the president aside to claim the reigns...

27 January 2013 Last updated at 12:28 ET

Egypt unrest: Deadly clashes erupt as Port Said mourns

Three people have been killed and 400 injured in the Egyptian city of Port Said at the mass funeral for about 30 people killed in unrest on Saturday.

Clashed broke out as the coffins were carried through the streets. Unrest was also reported in the capital, Cairo...

...Meanwhile, anti-riot policemen barred Egypt's interior minister from attending the funeral of two colleagues killed in the Port Said clashes, venting their fury at Mohammed Ibrahim for not arming police with live rounds to protect themselves from rioters.

In Cairo anti-government protesters clashed with security forces near Tahrir Square for a fourth consecutive day.

The UK embassy, located near the square, remained closed to the public on Sunday because of the "unfolding turbulence", officials said. Other nearby Western embassies were also closed...

...The liberal opposition accuses Mr Morsi of being autocratic and driving through a new constitution that does not protect adequately freedom of expression or religion.

The government is also being blamed for a deepening economic crisis.

President Morsi and his allies have dismissed the claim, saying they have a democratic mandate following recent elections.

The constitution, drawn up by an Islamist-dominated body, was approved by a referendum last month.

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

It's always the stuff from left field that surprises. Hosni Mubarak kept an official "state of emergency" in place for almost the entire three decades that he was President.


Meet the new boss, same as the old boss:

...There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again...
--"Won't Get Fooled Again" by Pete Townshend, from "Who's Next", 1971--

Clashes continue for fifth day in Egypt

Violence in Cairo comes hours after president Mohamed Morsi imposes emergency law in three Suez Canal cities.

Last Modified: 28 Jan 2013 12:50

Police have fired tear-gas at protesters in downtown Cairo, just hours after President Mohamed Morsi declared a state of emegency and a curfew in three Suez Canal cities.

Monday was the fifth consecutive day of street violence in Egypt...

...The cabinet, meanwhile, approved a draft law which would allow Morsi to deploy the army on the streets to "participate with the police in preserving security and protecting vital establishments." The law still must be ratified by the upper house of parliament; it would last until after the next legislative elections, tentatively scheduled for April.

Morsi delivered a televised address on Sunday night and announced the emergency measures in Port Said, Ismailia and Suez. A curfew will take effect on Monday from 9:00pm local time (19:00 GMT) to 6:00am (04:00 GMT); he warned that more action would be taken to stem the violence...

...Heba Morayef of Human Rights Watch in Cairo said a state of emergency reintroduced laws that gave police sweeping powers of arrest "purely because [people] look suspicious".

"It is a classic knee-jerk reaction to think the emergency law will help bring security," she said. "It gives so much discretion to the Ministry of Interior that it ends up causing more abuse which in turn causes more anger."

28 January 2013 Last updated at 08:27

Egypt's Morsi calls crisis talks as emergency declared

Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi has urged leading opposition figures to attend a "national dialogue" meeting following four days of deadly violence.

Dozens of people have died since a court sentenced 21 people to death over football riots. Anger over Mr Morsi's rule has fuelled unrest elsewhere.

Mr Morsi declared a state of emergency in Port Said, Suez and Ismailia, and a 21:00 to 06:00 curfew from Monday...

...Mr Dawoud said the invitation to talks was meaningless unless the opposition's demands for amendments to the constitution were met.

The opposition accuses Mr Morsi of being autocratic and driving through a new constitution that does not protect adequately freedom of expression or religion.

The constitution was approved in a national referendum in December...

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Thanks. Now you're making me nervous, and that's not easy.

The rise of a military class in the US is a topic I've touched on, as the political and economic implications are profound. Not only is the military beginning to stand out as the most competent US government organization, in the absence of a draft it is also developing into an economic class and important voting block, as well, that is starting to flex some muscle...

January 29, 2013

Americans Most Satisfied With Military, Least With Economy

PRINCETON, NJ -- As President Barack Obama's second term in office gets underway, Americans are most satisfied with the nation's military strength and preparedness, security from terrorism, and the quality of the environment, and least satisfied with the state of the economy...

... Clearly, Americans view the performance of the nation's military quite positively, an attitude that is also reflected in the military's top position on Gallup's annual measure of confidence in institutions...

...The public's satisfaction with the military and anti-terrorism efforts is higher today than in January 2005, when George W. Bush was inaugurated for his second term as president -- despite the Bush administration's focus on building up the U.S. military and on greatly enlarging the fight against terrorism after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I think a slice of the reason for the high ranking of the military could be attributed to that weird sycophantic "support the troops" antithesis of Vietnam over the past 10+ years of conflict.

"I support the troops" at times seemed a bit contrived like "I support Israel" or "I voted for Obama so I'm not a racist".

I would attribute a far larger portion of the reason for the public's perception that the military is immune or far better shielded from the epidemic levels of blatant corruption and lack of integrity we seem increasingly surrounded by in the upper echelons of political and business/economic leadership.

I would disagree with the voting block aspect of the military, only in the fact that total head count in the US military has been crashing over the last 20 years.

Where it becomes nebulous would be including the direct and indirect employment as a result of lower military headcount, but higher private contractor headcount.

Lots of unexpected changes in senior military leadership in the last couple of years, but especially the last few months.

Some strange commentary coming from senior military leadership in support of full female integration into combat roles. The opinions and views are most definitely NOT shared by junior to mid-level leadership but it's perceived to be a career ender if you stick your neck out too far in sharing opinions(get on the bus or get hit by it and so forth).

There are a few junior to mid level military veterans giving politics a crack.....I would think them unlikely to get too far if they have to get through the special interest self-compromise toll booth.

Senior military leadership? I'd say more likely to play ball with special interests since they likely already have previous experience compromising themselves to an extent to reach flag rank....as seen with recent commentary about full female integration that they would never have the courage to say in a closed room in front of a bunch of infantry and SF NCOs.

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I think a slice of the reason for the high ranking of the military could be attributed to that weird sycophantic "support the troops" antithesis of Vietnam over the past 10+ years of conflict.

"I support the troops" at times seemed a bit contrived like "I support Israel" or "I voted for Obama so I'm not a racist".

I would attribute a far larger portion of the reason for the public's perception that the military is immune or far better shielded from the epidemic levels of blatant corruption and lack of integrity we seem increasingly surrounded by in the upper echelons of political and business/economic leadership.

I would disagree with the voting block aspect of the military, only in the fact that total head count in the US military has been crashing over the last 20 years.

Where it becomes nebulous would be including the direct and indirect employment as a result of lower military headcount, but higher private contractor headcount.

Lots of unexpected changes in senior military leadership in the last couple of years, but especially the last few months.

Some strange commentary coming from senior military leadership in support of full female integration into combat roles. The opinions and views are most definitely NOT shared by junior to mid-level leadership but it's perceived to be a career ender if you stick your neck out too far in sharing opinions(get on the bus or get hit by it and so forth).

There are a few junior to mid level military veterans giving politics a crack.....I would think them unlikely to get too far if they have to get through the special interest self-compromise toll booth.

Senior military leadership? I'd say more likely to play ball with special interests since they likely already have previous experience compromising themselves to an extent to reach flag rank....as seen with recent commentary about full female integration that they would never have the courage to say in a closed room in front of a bunch of infantry and SF NCOs.

I would expect that what is required to "reach the top" in today's military is quite different in many respects from what was needed a generation or two ago. What you describe about "special interests" above seems (to me) to be another indication (symptom?) of the military becoming, in the minds of the citizens, a broader public service institution in the government - which is a big shift from being an organization with the sole purpose of killing foreigners.

For example, I suspect, if asked, most Americans would place greater trust in the military to respond to a major domestic natural disaster in their neighborhood than FEMA. That sort of shift in its role opens the door to a growing expectation by the public, and their politicians, that the military should reflect the demographics and values of the nation at large...gender, sexual orientation and even age. Notice how many older officers (from the Reserve and National Guard presumably) served on the front lines in Iraq and Afghanistan compared to wars in the last century? :-)

...And after the wars are over
And the body count is finally filed
I hope that man discovers
What's driving the people wild

Military madness
Is killing your country
So much sadness
Between you and me.
"Military Madness" by Graham Nash, from "Songs for Beginners", 1971

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

I would expect that what is required to "reach the top" in today's military is quite different in many respects from what was needed a generation or two ago.

From what I gather, I would agree.....but I reckon it happened in the past as well.....history has examples of some very sharp political operators in the military......but I just reckon there were fewer of them...now it appears to be the vast majority.

What you describe about "special interests" above seems (to me) to be another indication (symptom?) of the military becoming, in the minds of the citizens, a broader public service institution in the government - which is a big shift from being an organization with the sole purpose of killing foreigners.

For example, I suspect, if asked, most Americans would place greater trust in the military to respond to a major domestic natural disaster in their neighborhood than FEMA.

I think there are many concerned(many overly so) about the role and responsibility of FEMA. Personally, I'm not sure what to think.....other than I suspect what is being done and will likely be done in the future is seeing private organizations with extensive logistical capabilities being utilized more in regional disasters.....such as WalMart and UPS. My guess is that in a future natural disaster or pandemic we would likely see FEMA, Local/state/fedral law enforcement/military working VERY closely with the likes of UPS/WalMart/Yellow/Schneider/Roadway/etc.

I think the use of State/Federal military for natural disasters both domestically and overseas are some of the very best opportunities for the military to display their capabilities and help their own fellow citizens, as well as build a HUGE karmic bank account balance with foreign nations/peoples. Having been involved in a couple, it's pretty fulfilling too.

But my concern over their use relies almost exclusively with the same hybrid/mashup(like the example above) when it comes to domestic surveillance/intelligence gathering of US citizens as well as more kinetic roles such as stability/security and anti/counter terrorism. I would sincerely hate to see Kent State redux. That is NOT the role of the military, at the State or Federal level.

That sort of shift in its role opens the door to a growing expectation by the public, and their politicians, that the military should reflect the demographics and values of the nation at large...gender, sexual orientation and even age. Notice how many older officers (from the Reserve and National Guard presumably) served on the front lines in Iraq and Afghanistan compared to wars in the last century? :-)

...And after the wars are over
And the body count is finally filed
I hope that man discovers
What's driving the people wild

Military madness
Is killing your country
So much sadness
Between you and me.
"Military Madness" by Graham Nash, from "Songs for Beginners", 1971

I reckon the US military would be slightly right on average. A bit more so when it comes to 2nd Amendment issues, law enforcement/punishment, immigration, and federal social welfare.

What helps bring their average to just the right or center-right is their feelings on freedom. People should have the freedom to do whatever they want in their own homes. They often disagree(quite strongly) with certain lifestyles, but take freedom very, very seriously.

There are some folks in the military I know who want nothing more than for everyone to quit pretending and just have at it, winner takes all......personally, I think that's a considerable imbalance between a warrior mentality and the genuine need for diplomacy.

But I think most in the military, especially those who have deployed in the last 12 years, and especially the smaller subset of those who have deployed in a combat role........it's expensive in terms of good people and precious national treasure.

From that subset, I hope a bunch of folks with that left, middle, and right perspective on individual issues makes it onto the national stage because I think they can bring some genuine leadership to a nation being run for the benefit of a relative few. But I suspect if a senior military leader runs for office, we are not likely to see Eisenhower 2.0, I think we would be more likely to see what he feared in his warning when he departed office.

Sorry to go off on a tangent....I do think society does want to see it's military as a mirror image of itself in a way.

But that's not necessarily a good thing, especially if society in general is.........a failure.

The military is already mimicking the civilian world(with a bit of a lag) in terms of body fat/obesity/BMI issues....even with fitness requirements. And that's certainly not a good thing to mimic.

Part of the reason for the desire to see the military replicate society I think lies in guilt or something like it. Typically after a war, the warfighters(those in combat arms) attrit faster on average having difficulty returning to a garrison/training environment.

Believe it or not, some capabilities get lost during times of war......focus on 1-2-3 capabilities can see several other capabilities attrit or almost lost completely...so it is a vry necessary function. Those that can't comprehend or agree with that, SHOULD probably leave.

But I think the issue is with things like tattoos......back in the 04-07 period when recruiting was a bit more challenging(but contrary to mass media recruiting targets were all hit and with queues of people still waiting occurred). Standards for things like tattoos were relaxed.

Now people are going to get sacked for visible tattoos........policy implemented by people who rarely if ever deployed in the last 10-12 years.

The concern is that the people who DID deploy(I know quite a few people who've ben deployed 5+ years out of the last 10-12) will leave because they cannot be bothered with the political BS, and the people who managed to escape deployment for the most part, will play the game....and become the institutional knowledge of the military.

Which is not a good thing.

I serve in a military where if you're gay, we don't really care.....don't try anything funny or you WILL get the bash(and people joke about it as they do).....just be the best soldier you can be...but we're probably a bit more liberal than the US...so it could take a while to be the new normal....and to be honest, it could play a factor in sub-unit morale and be a stutter step in sub-unit capability.....but I don't think it's a biggie(but I'm biased).

I'm far more concerned about female access to evert combat role in the miltary for equality.

The military is not supposed to be a social experiment.......the military saw better integration and promotion of blacks based on merit, WELL before the same occurred on civvie street. We've seen it ourselves with Maori here in NZ as probably an even more progressive and hard earned example.

But one question about women in combat roles that is neither being asked/answered in the current debate is:

How will women in the Infantry/SF/combat arms INCREASE capability and US national security.

What's going to happen is:

Women will be unnecessarily broken(nearly all women physiologically lack the ability to perform at the higher physical standards required for certain combat roles).

Physical standards will be reduced for political poster children reasons, and capability will be reduced and lives potentially at risk.

In a way I think the push for females in all military roles as a way to push a political agenda at the expense of genuine national security. The public will be relieved that the military is becoming more like them......less successful.....as well as less scary........and what will be ignored is the less capable part as everyone is relieved that the warfighters have quietly exited.

Juts my rambling 0.02c

[GRG55]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

Typical DEBKA, always entertaining, some of it useful, some of it highly questionable. The closing line (emphasis mine) is complete nonsense...Pakistan has always been the greater nuclear threat as a perpetually unstable nation in a chronically unstable region, & holding the original "Islamic bomb". The Dec 13, 2001 Pakistan state sponsored attack on India's Parliament House should have been more than enough to dispel any doubts, but that very telling incident was lost on much of the western world in the aftermath of 9/11 and run-up to war in Iraq.

Keep an eye on Egypt. It has the potential to become a bigger concern with more important implicaitons than any attack on Saudi oil facilities or a revolution that displaces the House of Saud...

Sorry Jim; didn't mean to be cryptic. Egypt has a lot of similarities to Pakistan. No bomb, but some of the same strong-man/police-state issues along with an aging President, Hosni Mubarak, working hard to engineer a succession by his son Gamal, in an allegedly democratic republic, which isn't going down well with many of the 70 million or so Egyptians crammed into the Nile valley.

Like Pakistan, the military is the power center in the country, which has been ruled continuously by military leaders since Nassar's coup in '53 (Mubarak is the former head of the Air Force). Maintaining confidence in the army is vital since no one has any confidence in any of the political institutions. Even Egypt's official version of the October 1973 war, for public consumption, is structured around a "great victory" for the army based on it's early success in that failed attempt to oust the Israeli's from the Sinai Peninsula.

It's not as visibly unstable as Pakistan, but beneath the surface there's a lot of trouble brewing, kept in check by Mubarak's strong-man methods. Methods so brutal that they raised protest even from the USA over the treatment of opposition leader Ayman Nour after the 2005 Presidential election. Methods that include maintaining the official "state of emergency", and suspension of the right to trial, since Anwar Sadat's murder in 1981. All of this is not a sustainable situation.

Like Pakistan, Egypt is a US ally and receives considerable funding to prop up this regime. Recall that Al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman Al Zawahiri, used to head Egypt's Islamic Group, responsible for a number of political and civilian assassinations, including attempts on Mubarak, before merging it into Al Qaeda.

A successful terrorist attack on a Saudi oil installation or terminal would, at most, disrupt the flow of some oil for a few weeks or perhaps a month or two. A revolution in Saudi Arabia, that displaces the Al Saud family from power, would be met with a coordinated effort by much of the rest of the world to contain the effects on oil supply, as the loss of that supply would be a problem for many countries, not just the USA.

The really big problems always seem to come from unexpected sources. While Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan have been hogging the headlines from the Middle East for years, it's chaotic Pakistan, not Iran, that already has nuclear weapon capability and it's Egypt, not Iraq, that poses a great risk of change to a regime inimitably hostile to western interests in a populous Islamic nation.

It ain't over 'til it's over according to Yogi Berra. The above was posted in January, 2008. In Egypt it's a looong way from being over. Egypt is more influential than any other single nation in the Arab world...more than Saudi Arabia, and much more than Iraq or Syria. This is trouble for the region and likely the world:

Egyptian court sentences top Muslim Brotherhood leader to death

MINYA, Egypt Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:00pm EDT

(Reuters) - An Egyptian court sentenced the leader of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood and 682 supporters to death on Monday, intensifying a crackdown on the movement that could trigger protests and political violence ahead of an election next month.

The Brotherhood, in a statement issued in London, described the ruling as chilling and said it would "continue to use all peaceful means to end military rule".

An Islamist alliance that includes the Brotherhood called on Egyptians to demonstrate against the death sentences in the streets of Cairo on Wednesday.In another case signaling growing intolerance of dissent by military-backed authorities, a pro-democracy movement that helped ignite the uprising that toppled autocrat Hosni Mubarak in 2011 was banned by court order, judicial sources said.

The death sentence for Mohamed Badie, the Brotherhood's general guide, will infuriate members of the group, which has been the target of raids, arrests and bans since the army forced President Mohamed Mursi from power in July...

...Islamist militants based in the Sinai Peninsula have stepped up attacks against security forces since Mursi's overthrow, killing hundreds.

On Monday night, Cairo authorities found two bombs that were planted in the car of an army officer, security officials said.Badie, considered a conservative hardliner, was charged with crimes including inciting violence that followed the army overthrow of Mursi, who is also on trial on an array of charges.

The slight, 70-year-old veterinary professor stood trial in Cairo in a separate case hours after the sentence was affirmed."If they executed me one thousand times I will not retreat from the right path," Badie was quoted as saying by lawyer Osama Mursi, who attended one of his trials in Cairo...

...Tough measures against the Brotherhood suggest the authorities still see it as a major threat, even though most of its leaders and thousands of members are behind bars.

Authorities are well aware that the movement founded in 1928 has survived repression under successive Egyptian autocrats...

...The Obama administration said last week that it would partly resume military aid toEgypt, six months after cutting off the assistance in the wake of Mursi's ouster. The administration is delivering 10 Apache helicopters to Cairo and has notified Congress of its intention to send $650 million in aid for weapons systems used for border security, counterterrorism, anti-smuggling and non-proliferation...

[don]

Re: Bhutto Murder Closes Anti-Terror War Cycle Bush Launched after 9/11

looks like a coup, followed by a purge . . . . an old, bloody script