North Korea Unchained?

[verdo]

U.N poised to act against North Korea after nuclear test

So as most of you probably heard, North Korea has been ratcheting up its nuclear program again. When i saw the news, i was reminded by an old video produced by itulip back in 2011 about how the world "really works"

At the end of the video, you have the idea put forward that China used North Korea to silence America whenever they start pushing too hard on the demands for yuan revaluations and other such matters by having them ratchet up their nuclear weapons program. But it seems like China has condemned this recent testing by North Korea, and from what i read, are part of the team moving to curb North Koreas abilities to further test their nuclear weapons. So what's going on? Is North Korea becoming more unchained? Not too long ago, we were talking about North Korea taking small steps to modernize

More surprises to come. For example, North Korea will within two years time join the modern world. The young leader is working out a way to do it.

I was referring to the North Korean Special Economic Zone. I recall being in Hong Kong in the 1980s and viewing the Chinese SEZ from a hillside the Hong Kong side and wondering what was to become of this. Two years to meaningful reforms may be optimistic but ten is a near certainty.

Now they seem to be reversing course. What's everyones thoughts on this?

[touchring]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

U.N poised to act against North Korea after nuclear test

So as most of you probably heard, North Korea has been ratcheting up its nuclear program again. When i saw the news, i was reminded by an old video produced by itulip back in 2011 about how the world "really works"

At the end of the video, you have the idea put forward that China used North Korea to silence America whenever they start pushing too hard on the demands for yuan revaluations and other such matters by having them ratchet up their nuclear weapons program. But it seems like China has condemned this recent testing by North Korea, and from what i read, are part of the team moving to curb North Koreas abilities to further test their nuclear weapons. So what's going on? Is North Korea becoming more unchained? Not too long ago, we were talking about North Korea taking small steps to modernize

Now they seem to be reversing course. What's everyones thoughts on this?

I'm not surprised. The brat is an overgrown teenager that is totally rebellious and uncontrollable, he even had his aunt's husband and all his first cousins on his aunt's side eliminated, what do you think he cares for China?

I think China is currently too busy with their economic transition and stock market to be bothered about North Korea. But once China's economy stabilizes, the brat's days will be numbered.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

What's everyones thoughts on this?

I reckon North Korea is no longer an effective proxy tool for China, just as North Korea is no longer an effective proxy tool for Russia.

The difference being China's concern of a rising regional competitor in the form of South Korea.

North Korea has clearly "gone off the reservation" and is no longer a convenient attack dog on a leash(as per 1968 and the Pueblo seizure & Blue House Raid, concurrent with Tet Offensive) like the good old communist days of genuine competitive global systemic domination.

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Some may know about Nortk Korea's foreign exports.

Besides exporting WMD technology/capability, they also export counterfeit currency, and illegal drugs.

I've read that North Korean methamphetamine is becoming a HUGE social problem with China and it's fast increasing wealth.

North Korea has become a fast growing and increasingly inconvenient toxic cloud even for it's sole associate of convenience, China.

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With China growth slowing and the China share market crash 2.0, I would posit the North Korean nuclear test(like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction "attention whoring") is now of greater relevance to China than the US.

North Korean implosion is just a question of when, not if.

How that will be managed, controlled(then how/who)or uncontrolled is what needs to be sorted out.

North Korea will not be an East Germany. It will be orders of magnitude greater in challenge.

I'm hoping North Korean barbed wire and minefields are still maintained to prevent mass economic refugee migration and that a strict economic development zone is implemented with a 25-50 year development plan and ready supply of cheap labour for unskilled cheap labour much like China 1980.

But will automation technology negate the need for large concentrated masses of unskilled labour?

[dcarrigg]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

You've got it right, lakedaemonian. But look at it in the big context: here's my post from 6 months ago.

1. China doesn't want or need their coal right now.
2. Cuba and Iran have deals with the US and won't be taking the counterfeit greenbacks and NK scud knock-offs since they can get real stuff now.
3. Putin's in no position to bail them out with sanctions on, even if he wanted to.
4. Still facing famine and drought now into the winter.
5. The executions of family and top officials served to cement power have been continuous.

So, what to make of the H-Bomb proclamation:

1. Was it even legit?
2. Today is Kim Jong Un's birthday, and this came during the week of his birthday celebrations, which are a huge national affair.
3. He needs to cement power and a cult of personality as quickly as possible, because...
4. In May, the Worker's Party Congress will meet for the first time in 35 years. The Politburo called the meeting just 2 months ago.
5. Think of that like a constitutional convention. If any massive domestic policy shifts needed for foreign policy shifts are going to happen, they will come out of that meeting.

It's important to remember that historically, these types of Congresses have been the lynchpins to change in Politburo states. Whether it be the 12th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 1982, the 27th Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1986, or the 6th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, this is how they provide cover and legitimacy for major institutional change beyond what the central committees or leaders have the political capital to pull on their own.

This does not guarantee change will come in after this May. But there have only been 7 of these in North Korea's history. And if change is going to come, all the historical analogies point to it coming from a Party Congress like this.

So to sum up:
1. They're in a worse spot economically and geopolitically than they've been in a long while.
2. Un is desperate to cement his hold and bolster his position coming into the May Worker's Party Congress, which the Politburo called for the first time in 35 years.
3. Everything between now and then is jockeying for position. What comes out of this May Congress will ultimately be the only thing that shines any light on what North Korea is willing/able to do. But history shows change can come quite quickly, just a few years, when/if things open up.

[Chris Coles]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

It makes an interesting thought; what do you do when you see so many surrounding you being eliminated by a leader that shows every sign of being unable to comprehend the concept of civilisation; civilised friendly interaction with those surrounding them in their local community; and you might be next?

[vt]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

Maybe EJ's thoughts of a regime change in the next few years in not far fetched:

April 13, 2016 7:12 p.m. ET

"Thirteen North Koreans defected to the South last week from China. That may not seem significant, especially since they were waitresses rather than high officials. But in the secretive and topsy-turvy world of the Kim regime, this gutsy group defection suggests trouble in the workers’ paradise."

"It’s too early to say that Kim Jong Un’s hold on the Pyongyang elite is slipping as sanctions begin to bite. But this week South Korea disclosed that a senior colonel from Pyongyang’s powerful Reconnaissance General Bureau defected last year. Signs that the regime is under stress show that the North is not as self-sufficient as it likes to claim, and more pressure could bring it to its knees."

WSJ

[Chris Coles]

Re: North Korea Unchained?

We have had similar reports here in the UK.