What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

[santafe2]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Certainly being accredited does not mean you are a "1 percenter", although as Shiny pointed out the income requirement is closer. Even based on income I think you need $400,000 to be considered 1% (double the minimum accredited standard). My point was simply that itulip is almost certain to have far more of it's members among the 1% than the general population.

With regard to the status of iTulip members and posters it may be more interesting to look at this demographic from points of view other than relative wealth. I took a moment this morning to parse out the top 500 posters on iTulip since it's "re-inception" in 2006. My takeaway is that iTulip is as much a club as an investing or economic site. Joining the club costs less than a dollar a day. Here are a few metrics:

• The top 500 posters, range from over 11,000 to 21 posts.
• The average post count is 575 and the median is 121.
• The average time since joining for the top 500 posters is over 7 1/2 years. PoZ passes as a newbie around here at over 4 years.
• Only 7 of the top 500 posters have participated here for less than 3 years.
• 21% of the top 500 are paying members. This generates $60-65k in revenue.

So the great majority of the posters on this site have been here for a long time. As I do, they apparently enjoy the camaraderie of the site. The great majority of posters pay nothing to support iTulip. That said, I don't see how the cost to be a member of this club where you can read and post as much as you'd like, should be an issue. This is not the first time EJ has taken a hiatus from economic analysis on iTulip. He'll be back but in the meantime read GRG, Finster, jk and maybe bart will even post again one day.

[jk]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Certainly being accredited does not mean you are a "1 percenter", although as Shiny pointed out the income requirement is closer. Even based on income I think you need $400,000 to be considered 1% (double the minimum accredited standard). My point was simply that itulip is almost certain to have far more of it's members among the 1% than the general population.

I just find it funny how this 1% meme has taken off and conjures up an image of a bunch of Mr. Potter types (from It's a Wonderful Life) sitting around scheming and pulling all the strings. As opposed to many of them subscribing to an online econ forecasting website trying to find a hint of what the hell is going on and hoping to not lose half their money.

i think "1%" is used because it's simple for people who don't think much in numbers. there are 3.2million americans in the 1%, or about 1.4million households.

to be in the 0.1%, the top 325,000, you "only" need $30million - i think there are a lot of wall st and hedge fund types, as well as a lot of c-suite managers, who clear that bar but don't qualify as masters of the universe.

i think you have to get to the 0.01% or maybe the 0.001% to find mr. potter.

from the economist: "The 16,000 families making up the richest 0.01%, with an average net worth of $371m, now control 11.2% of total wealth."

meanwhile, the top 0.001% are the top 1361 households. Those 1,361 households enjoyed an average income of $161 million. i.e. their annual income is over 5 times the wealth of someone in the top 0.1% and roughly 150 times the wealth needed to be in the top 1%.

here's more: On average everybody else in the top 1 percent worked all year to earn what those 1,361 households earned every three days, and yet those at the top were far less burdened by taxes.

so it's among the top 0.001% where mr. potter lives.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

...subscribing to an online econ forecasting website trying to find a hint of what the hell is going on and hoping to not lose half their money.

That why I pay the fees. iTulip saved me and mine twice -we ducked the 2000 dotcom crash and the 2008 crisis.
So I can pay the fees for the rest of my life and still be money ahead.
Thank you again for that, EJ.

None the less I do wish for more content from EJ. For a while Finster, bart, and others were providing great work but that has trailed off.
Physician heal thyself- I and all others can bring economic and finance info and discuss it more.
I will will try to do more of that and hope others do too.

I keep these two quotes from EJ's post's in mind:
from here http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...758#post294758

...anyone who is still on the iTulip subscriber train is on it for one reason.

I have accurately forecast the past two asset price inflation collapses. There is, reasonably, an expectation that I can do it again...

That right there is enough for me to pay the fees.

And this helps me understand why EJ might be keeping his cards close to his vest and not sharing as much of his thinking as he once did:
from here, emphasis mine http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...322#post289322

......if I figure this out I will share it with subscribers but not as I have in the past. ...if I figure it out, will be as the result of work that I started in 1997 before I launched iTulip.com. I've learned from publishing on this site...that an idea that takes 10 or 15 years to refine into a working model will become everyone else's idea in 10 or 15 minutes on the Internet if it is published. Several years ago a friend of iTulip sent me a copy of a newsletter from a Cayman Islands based hedge fund. It was an iTulip subscriber newsletter with only the names changed, the rest verbatim....

Meeting with advisors on the possibility of creating a macro fund I have been advised to stop disseminating theories ...I will not be providing the kind of detail that will allow anyone to replicate the predictive elements of it that are intended to inform positions and trades. We are considering a kind of Positions and Trades Lite for subscribers who are not in a position to participate in a fund...

That tells me EJ finds his models and research are still working pretty well and I am grateful for his brutal honesty in that post.
I bet most of us have scoffed at some seminar offering a get rich scheme by asking this cynical question:

"If this thing makes so much money why is he traveling around selling seminar tickets and training books rather than working the system?"

We may be watching that alternative unfold right here, right now - EJ going off making money with his thinking.

Ej, thanks for all you work.
I sure would like to hear your thoughts on what we might expect in 2016 for iTulip.
As long as the site is up, I'll be here paying and watching.
.
.
.

[Bundi]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Maybe I don’t get out much but regarding issues that I find to be of value, I have learned as much and more from iTulip as from any other single source, outside of family. Much of that learning about myself.

This is a good and decent place.

To those here celebrating on Thursday, have a Happy Thanksgiving.

[verdo]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

i was thinking of getting a 1 or 2 year subscription recently, but i don't really want to do it if there isn't much going on behind the scenes. I dont qualify for the venture capital vehicle he's working on now so for me there isn't a whole lot of reason to push the button. I'm especially worried about what 2016 will look like, and whether or not the central banks will be able to avert a crash from happening

[lakedaemonian]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Sure thing. You go get 'em now.



I promised Shiny hugs and kisses and I'm keeping to it.

Well, why don't we?

What stops us from having our own narrow focus mashup thread(s) on investment?

If BUY/SELL investment advise and recommendations are NOT coming from EJ/management for liability/regulatory reasons, what stops the community from generating narrow exploratory threads with an emphasis on analysis and a bit of Socratic debate on entry/exit point.

More DA to go with all the OO around here.

Observe
Orient
Decide
Act

For example, Energy prices are continuing to drop. GRG's content is invaluable to better understand and observe The Why.

Shouldn't we try to orient to The How and patiently filter for the decision to act with The What and The When?

I've beat up on EJ/Factory Owners/bourgeois a bit on the lacks of coms, but I reckon the proletariat deserve a smack as well.

Suuuuuuuuuuurely, we can spend a little less time on silly things like us arguing about an SU25 shooting down a triple seven and more time on what brought us here to begin with.

Although I do have to say I enjoy reading some of the esoteric long view stuff here, especially yours.

You can't learn anything from talking to people with identical world views.

It's a nice, occasional distraction.

So what I'm saying is we're lazy and should consider shifting a chunk of time invested here on geopolitical drift and reinvest it more narrow and original focus themes.

Self and mashup leadership.

Just my 0.02c

[DSpencer]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

i think "1%" is used because it's simple for people who don't think much in numbers. there are 3.2million americans in the 1%, or about 1.4million households.

to be in the 0.1%, the top 325,000, you "only" need $30million - i think there are a lot of wall st and hedge fund types, as well as a lot of c-suite managers, who clear that bar but don't qualify as masters of the universe.

i think you have to get to the 0.01% or maybe the 0.001% to find mr. potter.

from the economist: "The 16,000 families making up the richest 0.01%, with an average net worth of $371m, now control 11.2% of total wealth."

meanwhile, the top 0.001% are the top 1361 households. Those 1,361 households enjoyed an average income of $161 million. i.e. their annual income is over 5 times the wealth of someone in the top 0.1% and roughly 150 times the wealth needed to be in the top 1%.

here's more: On average everybody else in the top 1 percent worked all year to earn what those 1,361 households earned every three days, and yet those at the top were far less burdened by taxes.

so it's among the top 0.001% where mr. potter lives.

I think you are right. "Point zero zero one percenters" just doesn't have the same ring to it. Honestly, I don't really know what that group is like. I don't recall ever meeting anyone that earned over 100 million per year. If I have, I apparently didn't realize it.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Thrifty, I do not believe EJ is working on a fund. It is true that he is tied up running multiple start ups.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Thrifty, I do not believe EJ is working on a fund. It is true that he is tied up running multiple start ups.

Thanks PoZ. My only insight are EJ's public postings.
And by the way, thanks PoZ for doing so much of the heavy lifting around here lately writing about economics and finance.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Certainly being accredited does not mean you are a "1 percenter", although as Shiny pointed out the income requirement is closer. Even based on income I think you need $400,000 to be considered 1% (double the minimum accredited standard). My point was simply that itulip is almost certain to have far more of it's members among the 1% than the general population.

I just find it funny how this 1% meme has taken off and conjures up an image of a bunch of Mr. Potter types (from It's a Wonderful Life) sitting around scheming and pulling all the strings. As opposed to many of them subscribing to an online econ forecasting website trying to find a hint of what the hell is going on and hoping to not lose half their money.

Perhaps some of those 1% should invest in my fund start up if they are looking to "preserve" their capital.

[jk]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Perhaps some of those 1% should invest in my fund start up if they are looking to "preserve" their capital.

you starting a fund, poz?

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

you starting a fund, poz?

Correct!

[jk]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Correct!

let us know about it.

[jpatter666]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

I sure would like to hear your thoughts on what we might expect in 2016 for iTulip.
As long as the site is up, I'll be here paying and watching.

When I ended the paid subscription I stated I'd be watching to see when EJ started posting again and then I would re-up. Until that point, might as well save my money.

Every now and again I check the main page to see if a new main article. The current one dates from 11/11/2013.

[Woodsman]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

When I ended the paid subscription I stated I'd be watching to see when EJ started posting again and then I would re-up.

And ka-POOM, he show's up just in time.