What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Hi Ash. I have not visited here in months. EJ has probably grown tired of the constant Left vs Right battles fought on this forum, as have I. It's really become more of a philosophy forum than an economic one. Frankly I just check in to get Lakedaemonian's well informed opinions every now and then, and that's it.

Me?!?

You sure you don't need crazy pills mate?

Been quiet for me around here bar the odd post. Lots of travel and professional distraction the last few months.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Agreed and point taken. I came here on the basis of EJ's record of macroeconomic research. I still rely on it and not a week goes by where I'm not rummaging through his work looking for some point he made or data he analyzed and comparing it with the present crisis. But for reasons he and others articulated, that can't happen now. And without data - or the time and inclination to attempt a similar rigorous analysis - we fall back on the shorthand we all know to be a poor substitute. I don't like it any more than you do, but neither of us has the juice to convince Mr. J to dance the dance we love so much. He's listening to other music but was kind enough to keep the hall open for his friends and customers in the meantime.

There's still plenty of macroeconomics and investments going on in the Select forums. And if folks haven't been paying attention to Finster, well that's just too bad for them. It can't rise to the level of EJ's detail but still offers more insight and rigor than we'd likely ever see at other similar sites. I think it still has immense value.

I think iTulip has clearly lost its way.

And it's not meant as a beat up.

What I once viewed as a high performance team(more like mash up) developing long view personal financial strategy seems to have splintered into a small private equity subset community wrapped in a forum for intelligent folks to voluntarily spend unproductive leisure time with no real outcome related to the original intent of being here.

The public forum has transformed from an investment club of sorts to a Mensa Fight Club.

Forum ownership/management have done a poor job in proactively articulating the new strategic direction.

What little we've seen has been post fact reactive.

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In terms of the self organized open forum, I think this article is relevant:

https://neuroscience.stanford.edu/ne...fect-decisions

Ego, Bias, Personality, Personal Power, Charisma, Hubris, Arrogance, Pettiness etc all play a huge role in physical team problem solving.

The same rules apply in virtual teams as well don't they?

Especially teams with literally no moderation in god knows how long. ITulip public forums have become a room for smart folks to meet and squabble that used to be a moderated community. Hence Mensa Fight Club.


How many times have you seen subject matter expertise discounted(including on this forum) or overweighted because of who is presenting it, the position from which they present it, and/or where they fall into the tribal/feral hierarchy human beings always fall into?

And that goes from EJ right in down.

I believe this forum still retains great potential, but much of that potential remains unrealised and increasingly in my opinion, unlikely to be realised.

While it may sound like a beat up session(and it kind of is) but if folks do not wish to be categorised as not indifferent to the millions of other squabbling Internet forums then the minimum standards and expectations need to be much higher.

But we're only human, and we act as such in the absence of leadership and/or effective team management.

[Woodsman]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Ego, Bias, Personality, Personal Power, Charisma, Hubris, Arrogance, Pettiness etc

John 8:7-9, dude. Even unto the last.

And it's not a splinter, it's a business model. You don't like it and would do something else and I'd pay to read it, lake. But it's EJ's call as to how he allocates his time and attention. His decision, his risk. Not being mean but if we're going to bring up hubris, beholdest thou the splinter and the log.

The iTulip group is open to accredited investors. There's necessarily a degree of discretion involved and pro forma requirements and so forth. Select members participate based on their individual circumstances, time horizon and tolerance for risk. It's a circle that's closer than the select circle and to which the public forums sit outside. Nothing more to it than that. The public side is just such a different kettle of fish and I do wish folks would simply recognize that and stop the catstrophising.

We're here for the collected works of EJ. We're here to glean free of charge a nugget or crust of information from the man. We're here to put our money where our mouth is and ride it all on his judgment. We're here for personality, bias, power, charisma, hubris, arrogance, pettiness etc. alas.

But it's an EJ production and if he wants to let it ride a while and try something else, I have no problem with it. He gives folks a chance to ride along, pro-rated for goodness sake. And we back in the peanut gallery get to bat around mental constructs with folks you'd might or might not meet otherwise. Anyway you slice it, that's a heck of a Saturday night for a guy living in his mom's basement.



I promised Shiny hugs and kisses and I'm keeping to it, but all this hand-wringing seems over the top. You bet there's unrealized potential here, lake. And EJ can realize it any time he pleases. It's small potatoes compared to the private equity stuff yet be that as it may, the moment he decides to put up another of his long form pieces there'd be potential realizing all over the place.

I really would pay to read your stuff, lake. But I can't do much more than what I earned as a stringer back in the day. Still more than kids today could ever hope to earn scribbling.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

and how Mr J's interpretation of this apparently centered on how politix in the US today has perverted the mechanics of the economy

To be fair, the politix has "always" perverted the mechanics of the economy and rightly so over long time periods.

It is this argument framed between state intervention and free market capitalism that is the issue.

As soon as someone hears that the "state" should intervene they immediately cry "socialism." Then mutter something about personal responsibility.

The same tactics individuals both left and right who believe in this so called ideal of free market capitalism use to decry socialism is the same tactics that minorities use against the majority to obtain power by decrying racism where no racism may be present.

All the while we fight over these right vs. left issues, minority vs. majority issues, abortion vs. women's choice, religious views vs. secular views, the 1% are laughing to the interest bearing bank as the plebeians fight over chicken scraps.

Panem, Bread and Circuses, indeed.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

The human condition is imperfect understanding.

[ASH]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Hi Ash. I have not visited here in months. EJ has probably grown tired of the constant Left vs Right battles fought on this forum, as have I. It's really become more of a philosophy forum than an economic one. Frankly I just check in to get Lakedaemonian's well informed opinions every now and then, and that's it.

I see. I noticed that new content from EJ wasn't being generated (at least in the public forum). I do miss hearing from you, Lakedaemonian, and the others, though.

[ASH]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Hi, ASH, how've you been? I've missed you around here.

Hi shiny!! I've missed you too. I've been pretty good, if unremarkable. A lot of the effort I used to put into writing posts on iTulip has gotten channeled into writing posts on Facebook instead. If you (or anyone else I know from iTulip are on FB and want to connect there, lemme know by PM). I've been less focused on economics these days, though -- mostly foreign and domestic policy (plus the usual personal stuff).

I sort of came to the conclusion that after the Great Recession, we entered into a period in which economic conditions are much less of a special circumstance than the period leading up to the Great Recession, so I became less focused on finance and economics. Also, whereas markets and the economy generally headed in directions I expected in the period leading up to the financial crisis, very few of my subsequent expectations panned out, so I concluded that I wasn't doing a very good job of thinking about that stuff, anyway. Another factor was that I put most of my non-retirement savings into buying a house about 5 years ago, plus my kids were in the high-effort pre-school age zone, so I had less money to worry about investing as well as much less time to think. Both kids have been sleeping through the night regularly for about a year now, so I'm emerging from that era.

Anyway, I hope you've been well. Good to 'see' you.

[ASH]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

G'day Ash! I hope you're well.

Wow. It's like a mini reunion up in here.

I'm the same not having renewed.

The over promise, under deliver, and under communicate kind of bugged me.

Strangly enough, the private equity space iTulip seems to be moving into is the same space I seem to be aggressively moving into as well.

Hey, lakedaemonian! I've been good. Glad we happened to coincide on this thread for the mini-reunion. It sounds like you've been a bit more active here -- hope you're well. The company I work for has been doing well; perhaps one day (in, like, 10 years?) private equity will be relevant to me; as of yet, I'm not in that capitalist class! ;-)

[jk]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

iirc, ej wrote at some point that the economy and markets had become un-analyzable because of the degree to which they were being manipulated. otoh, he wrote, he had faith in the ingenuity of the american economy and saw investments in start ups as a way forward. my take is that he is doing exactly what he said. i would guess that when and if there are things going on at the macro level that he thinks are inexorable processes independent of various interventions, he will write about it. personally, i still think there is the possibility of a ka-poom scenario as the global economy becomes increasingly deflationary [the baltic dry index is at a new low, commodities are down across the board, economies are sluggish in general, the engine of chinese growth is slowing, and so on].

[ASH]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

iirc, ej wrote at some point that the economy and markets had become un-analyzable because of the degree to which they were being manipulated. otoh, he wrote, he had faith in the ingenuity of the american economy and saw investments in start ups as a way forward. my take is that he is doing exactly what he said. i would guess that when and if there are things going on at the macro level that he thinks are inexorable processes independent of various interventions, he will write about it. personally, i still think there is the possibility of a ka-poom scenario as the global economy becomes increasingly deflationary [the baltic dry index is at a new low, commodities are down across the board, economies are sluggish in general, the engine of chinese growth is slowing, and so on].

Hey jk. That's pretty much what I remember. Since I'm not qualified to invest in startups, I figured I'd shelve the macroeconomics skull sweat until I again had the sense that times were unusual, and in the meantime, do the bland retail investor thing of dollar-cost averaging into low-cost index funds. In the long run, I kind of think we're going to end up with something like Japan: structural, demographic deflation balanced by money-printing (awfully close to MMT). Maybe.

[jk]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Hey jk. That's pretty much what I remember. Since I'm not qualified to invest in startups, I figured I'd shelve the macroeconomics skull sweat until I again had the sense that times were unusual, and in the meantime, do the bland retail investor thing of dollar-cost averaging into low-cost index funds. In the long run, I kind of think we're going to end up with something like Japan: structural, demographic deflation balanced by money-printing (awfully close to MMT). Maybe.

be careful with your index holdings. if they're in the big, cap weighted indices they are being held up by increasingly narrow support in the biggest, safest names. when those stocks finally roll over you'll have the opportunity to buy at lower prices, especially if you sell some when there are signs of the rollover [e.g. crossing the 200 day sma].

[GRG55]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

iirc, ej wrote at some point that the economy and markets had become un-analyzable because of the degree to which they were being manipulated. otoh, he wrote, he had faith in the ingenuity of the american economy and saw investments in start ups as a way forward. my take is that he is doing exactly what he said. i would guess that when and if there are things going on at the macro level that he thinks are inexorable processes independent of various interventions, he will write about it. personally, i still think there is the possibility of a ka-poom scenario as the global economy becomes increasingly deflationary [the baltic dry index is at a new low, commodities are down across the board, economies are sluggish in general, the engine of chinese growth is slowing, and so on].

Hey jk. That's pretty much what I remember. Since I'm not qualified to invest in startups, I figured I'd shelve the macroeconomics skull sweat until I again had the sense that times were unusual, and in the meantime, do the bland retail investor thing of dollar-cost averaging into low-cost index funds. In the long run, I kind of think we're going to end up with something like Japan: structural, demographic deflation balanced by money-printing (awfully close to MMT). Maybe.

Nobody has a perfect crystal ball so only time will tell. I tend to think the odds favour jk's outcome over the Japan-like scenario, and I wonder if what we are witnessing now is "Argentina on a global scale" complete with the momentary deflationary spike down before the Poom (that EJ has highlighted on a chart in the past).

Japan and Germany are the two major global economies that still recall hyperinflation in their past, and have shaped their post-bubble policies in a direction opposite the Great Depression, deflation-fearing USA. While there has been much criticism of Fed policies since 2008 the fact remains that no other significant nation or region other than China, which followed the Bernanke playbook to the extreme, has matched the durability of the US recovery. Instead of the much predicted "Dollar Collapse", it remains the unassailable global reserve currency and seems much in demand these days, non?

Perhaps it will be the negative effects of the rising US $ exchange rate that initiates the next reflation by the FED and sets the stage for Poom?

[ASH]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Could be (regarding some variety of 'POOM')... I haven't sold my insurance, in any case; just not accumulating more.

[GRG55]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

Could be (regarding some variety of 'POOM')... I haven't sold my insurance, in any case; just not accumulating more.

There's no reason to have fire insurance above the cost of replacing the house

EJ telegraphed quite some time back that he once again saw undervalued opportunity in the remarkably resilient and creative USA economy...specifically in small technology. That view was undoubtedly shaped by EJ's own background and experience in that sector. Regardless he turned from outright pessimist in advance of the Financial Crisis, to selective optimist after. That should have been a signal to all of us that a uniformly negative outlook (permabear I believe is the sobriquet) was unlikely to be helpful.

In the midst of the oil crash wreckage today I see more opportunity than I did in the summer of 2014 when WTI oil was well above $100/bbl and a tsunami of money was flowing into every crazy story associated with the commodity.

Regardless of the noise from daily events all around the globe there are constants that bind all of humanity - we want the same things for ourselves and our families. Others on the other side of the world feel the exact same way about their children as you expressed. But of course you know that. No matter what there will continue to be human progress from human ingenuity, and always some area about to emerge that is undervalued as a result.

Wonderful to have you back ASH!!!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: What is the NEWS on the status of iTulip?

John 8:7-9, dude. Even unto the last.

And it's not a splinter, it's a business model.

Don't you mean a community?

You don't like it and would do something else and I'd pay to read it, lake. But it's EJ's call as to how he allocates his time and attention. His decision, his risk. Not being mean but if we're going to bring up hubris, beholdest thou the splinter and the log.

I absolutely agree that EJ can take his ball and go home if he chooses.

That's his prerogative. As is mine to call an awkward fart in the room for what it is.

There has been a consistent pattern of overpromising and under delivering with iTulip in some respects in recent years and a lack of effective communication from the leadership team.

If you want to talk business model....that doesn't go in the success column.

The iTulip group is open to accredited investors. There's necessarily a degree of discretion involved and pro forma requirements and so forth. Select members participate based on their individual circumstances, time horizon and tolerance for risk. It's a circle that's closer than the select circle and to which the public forums sit outside. Nothing more to it than that. The public side is just such a different kettle of fish and I do wish folks would simply recognize that and stop the catstrophising.

I fall into the accredited investor category and spent a chunk of my time in the US last month on a fantastic private equity opportunity in an entertainment industry niche that is going to cause a storm of support and derision in 2016.

And I'm looking hard at a big opportunity in local community network education and development for start up and early stage P/E that includes spending some time in and around Stanford in 2016.

My part-time in uniform will be coming to an end someday, and while I still hope to inject some lasting impact on innovation/creativity on the organisation and it's youngsters, physically leading these kids is getting hard.

Time for a change. If not today, then soon.

Call me pedantic, but it's not the subscription money. It's the coms...or lack of coms that lost me

We're here for the collected works of EJ.

Are we now? Speak for yourself kemosabe!

For all the credit we give EJ(and I would concur), I don't do sycophancy. If the emperor is not wearing any clothes, isn't it entirely appropriate for someone to let him/her know?

Actually, while I've been here to read EJ's thoughts(and he's been kind enough to respond to me personally on a few occasions to which I am very grateful), I'm also here to read stuff from folks like Bart.

Where's Bart? He visits but hasn't posted in 2 years.

I always loved reading his stuff(topical or not) and would be the first pick on my iTulip All Star super awesome mega high performance team.

We're here to glean free of charge a nugget or crust of information from the man. We're here to put our money where our mouth is and ride it all on his judgment. We're here for personality, bias, power, charisma, hubris, arrogance, pettiness etc. alas.

I arrived for analysis and for folks to challenge my conventional programming and unconventional but unfocused thinking.

I joined a community and felt I contributed as best I could in my areas of experience and expertise.

And I take onboard the weaknesses that I know I have from the article link I provided.

But it's an EJ production and if he wants to let it ride a while and try something else, I have no problem with it. He gives folks a chance to ride along, pro-rated for goodness sake. And we back in the peanut gallery get to bat around mental constructs with folks you'd might or might not meet otherwise. Anyway you slice it, that's a heck of a Saturday night for a guy living in his mom's basement.



I promised Shiny hugs and kisses and I'm keeping to it, but all this hand-wringing seems over the top.

What you may can handwringing, others(OK, me ) would call an under-utilised and rudderless high performance team.

You bet there's unrealized potential here, lake. And EJ can realize it any time he pleases. It's small potatoes compared to the private equity stuff yet be that as it may, the moment he decides to put up another of his long form pieces there'd be potential realizing all over the place.

I really would pay to read your stuff, lake. But I can't do much more than what I earned as a stringer back in the day. Still more than kids today could ever hope to earn scribbling.

Innovation and creativity successfully leveraged and harnessed thru entrepreneurial activity is hope realised.

My old employer Amazon.com(that has unfortunately gone down the track from beautiful upstart to special interest integrated institution) has produced and distributed a good few young blockbuster authors.

Maybe it's just the whole "enough monkeys pounding on typewriters" thing.....a bit like "writer lotto". But it's something.

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In closing, someone's got to call bullish!t.

I don't care if there's a zillion dollars worth of PE activity going on behind the paywall.

A community and ecosystem evolved that has potential value far greater than the sum of it's parts.

I find it incredibly frustrating that so little has been done with it.

A bit like how those very early internet communities like The WELL.

Maybe a mix of nostalgia and unrealised promise.

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This is not meant as a beat up on EJ individually or anyone else on this forum.

When I feel strongly about something, especially if it's against the grain...I can't keep my mouth shut.

Maybe it's because I have too many jobs and not enough free time and I'm hoping I might get fired from 1/2 for excessive candor. Instead it seem to keep me even busier.