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Re: Paris Attack
And thanks for the Atlantic link. Here is Graeme Wood, writing the day after the Paris attacks.Originally posted by astonas View Post
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...e-shots-213360Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Great read. But, I'm struck by the fact that Ben Ahmed is a community organizer/politician. No one discusses the absolute mess of the French economy today. Ben Ahmed loves France because his livelihood depends on it and he has political aspirations. Meanwhile, the young and educated (especially highly educated with MA or PhD) can't find work. If the highly educated are struggling you can only imagine the pain being felt among recent immigrants.
What happens here in the USA when quantitative easing fails to keep the economic illusion going and people reduce their hiring of illegals Central and Southern immigrants. The story is the same through out history as economic pain can bring out the worst in people as they battle to feed themselves and survive.
Sadly, no one will report on the linkage between a worldwide economic crisis and evil acts that happened in France.
Ben Ahmed is exactly the kind of person France doesn't need. He has no real skill or talent, he is just another politician and that it is not going to get France out of this bind.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
(I wasn't as impressed with the sections on Ben Ahmed either. But the piece's discussions of how islamists target their recruiting efforts was, I thought, important.)Originally posted by BK View Post
I do agree that economics plays directly into the situation. When one accepts the notion that an underclass is there to be exploited by elites, one only increases their eventual susceptibility to extremism.
But it was interesting to see that at least in France, the situation hasn't turned that particular corner yet. The majority of IS recruits from France (and the west in general) at this moment come not from the banlieues, but the middle class. They really are mostly ideological recruits, not principally economic ones. But one can easily imagine the horror we might see if IS were to make inroads among the far larger recruitment pool of the very poor. That is surely a fate worth avoiding.
The struggle to keep islamic conceptions of identity from evolving into islamist ones in minds throughout the world could not have higher stakes. But one way to guarantee we'll lose that struggle is to pretend that there already is no difference. THAT amounts to suicide.
Winning in this sphere will not be easy. All three of the monotheistic Abrahamic religions have fundamentalist sects that actively desire and work toward the apocalypse. These are particularly dangerous at this moment, as they will feed off each other, with the explicit goal of bringing about what is literally hoped to be the end of the world. If we wish to diffuse one of these, we must by necessity also work to weaken the impact of the other two. Pretending, as we have for decades, that they don't feed off each other in a vicious cycle has clearly not worked at all.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
There is a long and very complex reason for what happened. On the other hand the immediate cause is something like this.
I kill your brother, rape your sister and then invite you for a sleep over.
How about Russia nukes New York City, and then welcomes who ever is left to live in Moscow?
How about putting an adult book store near a church? Lets serve horse meat to Senior Caballero , dog meat to protestants, bacon to Jews and pour a glass of wine for Muslims....And when they start to agitate over this , lets create a huge spy network and put surveillance cameras in every bathroom stall to root out those trouble makers.
That sound like a good idea?Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
I'm sure I'm not quite following all of the detailed subtext of your metaphors. I do think it is safe to say we (globally, in our governments) have a pretty dramatic lack of understanding of the world's many belief structures, and also of the lasting impact on our own subcultures from adventures in far-flung lands, and that appears to be at least part of what you were getting at.Originally posted by gwynedd1 View Post
If that was indeed your main point, I couldn't agree more. There is always room for further understanding.
Even if one has no interest at all in understanding subcultures for their own sake, and believes "the other tribe" to be universally and immutably the enemy, there is still a need for understanding in a "know your enemy" sense. (It is a tactical and strategic advantage to understand the nuances in belief that separate ISIS from the nations surrounding it, and from the majority of muslims worldwide.) If we don't, we may well make the mistake of offering a potential muslim ally the theological equivalent of the glass of wine you mention.
That sort of blunder has certainly been common enough in our past middle-eastern adventures. I don't think we have the luxury of displaying such lack of finesse anymore. The re-establishment of a temporal Caliphate has driven these theological distinctions to the fore.
If the bad news is that we now desperately need to understand more than we do, the good news is that with more understanding comes the ability to forge better alliances. ISIS is not Al Qaeda. They are not just at war with an ephemeral idea of "the west". They are also explicitly in a conventional war with every nation bordering their territory, as only by ceaselessly expanding their contiguous territory can they claim the theological legitimacy essential to their existence at this stage. If there's any sphere of conflict we should be able to win in, it's conventional warfare. We just need to make sure that the neighboring states (rather than the west) get to claim all the credit, so that the aftermath doesn't simply hand power to anti-western demagogues.
This gets us back into the sticky problem of giving arms to often less-than-ideal partners among the locals, and I certainly don't claim to have the best answers there. I would be interested, however, in hearing from others, such as GRG55, on whether the establishment of a free Kurdistan has any chance of being a step forward not only strategically, but also morally. (One could argue that a responsibility carries over from our early support of Saddam while he gassed Kurdish people.)Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Never let a good Crisis go to waste:-
France swats aside EU budget rules in rearmament blitz
“The security pact takes precedence over the stability pact. France is at war,” said President Hollande
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By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:59PM GMT 16 Nov 2015
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France has invoked emergency powers to sweep aside EU deficit rules and retake control over its economy after the terrorist atrocities in Paris, pledging a massive in increase and security and defence spending whatever the cost.
President Francois Hollande said vital interests of the French nation are at stake and there can be no further justification for narrowly-legalistic deficit rules imposed by Brussels. “The security pact takes precedence over the stability pact. France is at war,” he told the French parliament.
Defence cuts have been cancelled as far out as 2019 as the country prepares to step up its campaign to “eradicate” ISIS, from the Sahel in West Africa, across the Maghreb, to Syria and Iraq.
At least 17,000 people will be recruited to beef up the security apparatus and the interior ministry, fast becoming the nerve centre of the country’s all-encompassing war against the ISIS network.
Members of the French army patrol at the Gare du Nord train station in Paris after the deadly attack Photo: Bloomberg
The new forces include 5,000 new police and gendarmes, 1,000 customs officials, and 2,500 prison guards. “I assume it will lead to an increase in expenses,” he said.
The combined effect amounts to a fiscal stimulus and may ultimately cushion the economic damage of terrorist attacks for the tourist industry, but the “rearmament” drive spells the end of any attempt to meet deficit limit of 3pc of GDP enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact. With France in open defiance, the reconstituted pact is now effectively dead.
The European Commission expects the French deficit to be 3.4pc of GDP next year and 3.3pc in 2017, but the real figure is likely to be much higher and will last through to the end of the decade. The concern is that this could push the country’s debt yet higher from 96.5pc of GDP to nearer 100pc, made worse by the effects of deflation on debt dynamics.
Mr Hollande said France will invoke article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, the solidarity clause obliging other member states to come to his country’s help by “all means in their power”. It would be beyond parody for Brussels to continue insisting on budget rules in such a political context.
The French economy is slowly recovering as the triple effects of a weak euro, cheap oil, and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank combine to create a short-term blast of stimulus, but it still remains remarkably depressed a full six years into the post-Lehman cycle of global expansion.
Growth crept up to 0.3pc in the third quarter after stalling earlier in the year. Unemployment is still stuck at 10.7pc and has actually risen over recent months. “Momentum may fade in 2017 as tailwinds peter out,” said the Commission.
The Eiffel Tower is illuminated in the colours of the French flag in tribute for the victims of the November 13 terror attacks Photo: EPA
Professor Brigitte Granville from Queen Mary University of London said the country has been losing competitiveness within Europe’s monetary union for so long – not helped by a labour code still 3,648 pages - that it is now caught in a stagnation trap with the wrong intra-EMU exchange rate. She warned that the country is on a slow slide towards economic “catastrophe”.
A study by Nobel economist Gary Becker found that “the fear created by terrorism has huge and enduring effects on human behaviour,” often out all proportion to the actual risk. This makes it extremely hard to predict the economic effects.
Tourism to Israel fell by two-thirds during the eighteen months after the Al-Aqsa Intifada, and air travel in the US fell by 15pc in the year following the Twin Towers attack on 2001. The paper concluded that people are ultimately rational and learn to control their fear. Life goes on as normal.
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Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Austerity: Good for the Greeks, perfect for Portugal, superb for Spain and ideal for Ireland. Finished (long ago) in France.
This is just a confirmation of what has already been established for quite some time...a below the radar almost universal rejection of the sugarless Kool-aid that Germany's been peddling as a medicinal elixir for all that ails the Euro currency bloc economies.
Difficult not to notice that Germany's Q3 growth doesn't look all that wonderful either. Quelle surprise.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Originally posted by Mega View PostNever let a good Crisis go to waste:-
France swats aside EU budget rules in rearmament blitz
“The security pact takes precedence over the stability pact. France is at war,” said President Hollande
Facebook 25Twitter Pinterest 0LinkedIn 0Share 25Email
Sponsored by YOPA
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:59PM GMT 16 Nov 2015
Follow
91 Comments
France has invoked emergency powers to sweep aside EU deficit rules and retake control over its economy after the terrorist atrocities in Paris, pledging a massive in increase and security and defence spending whatever the cost.
President Francois Hollande said vital interests of the French nation are at stake and there can be no further justification for narrowly-legalistic deficit rules imposed by Brussels. “The security pact takes precedence over the stability pact. France is at war,” he told the French parliament.
Defence cuts have been cancelled as far out as 2019 as the country prepares to step up its campaign to “eradicate” ISIS, from the Sahel in West Africa, across the Maghreb, to Syria and Iraq.
At least 17,000 people will be recruited to beef up the security apparatus and the interior ministry, fast becoming the nerve centre of the country’s all-encompassing war against the ISIS network.
Members of the French army patrol at the Gare du Nord train station in Paris after the deadly attack Photo: Bloomberg
The new forces include 5,000 new police and gendarmes, 1,000 customs officials, and 2,500 prison guards. “I assume it will lead to an increase in expenses,” he said.
The combined effect amounts to a fiscal stimulus and may ultimately cushion the economic damage of terrorist attacks for the tourist industry, but the “rearmament” drive spells the end of any attempt to meet deficit limit of 3pc of GDP enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact. With France in open defiance, the reconstituted pact is now effectively dead.
The European Commission expects the French deficit to be 3.4pc of GDP next year and 3.3pc in 2017, but the real figure is likely to be much higher and will last through to the end of the decade. The concern is that this could push the country’s debt yet higher from 96.5pc of GDP to nearer 100pc, made worse by the effects of deflation on debt dynamics.
Mr Hollande said France will invoke article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, the solidarity clause obliging other member states to come to his country’s help by “all means in their power”. It would be beyond parody for Brussels to continue insisting on budget rules in such a political context.
The French economy is slowly recovering as the triple effects of a weak euro, cheap oil, and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank combine to create a short-term blast of stimulus, but it still remains remarkably depressed a full six years into the post-Lehman cycle of global expansion.
Growth crept up to 0.3pc in the third quarter after stalling earlier in the year. Unemployment is still stuck at 10.7pc and has actually risen over recent months. “Momentum may fade in 2017 as tailwinds peter out,” said the Commission.
The Eiffel Tower is illuminated in the colours of the French flag in tribute for the victims of the November 13 terror attacks Photo: EPA
Professor Brigitte Granville from Queen Mary University of London said the country has been losing competitiveness within Europe’s monetary union for so long – not helped by a labour code still 3,648 pages - that it is now caught in a stagnation trap with the wrong intra-EMU exchange rate. She warned that the country is on a slow slide towards economic “catastrophe”.
A study by Nobel economist Gary Becker found that “the fear created by terrorism has huge and enduring effects on human behaviour,” often out all proportion to the actual risk. This makes it extremely hard to predict the economic effects.
Tourism to Israel fell by two-thirds during the eighteen months after the Al-Aqsa Intifada, and air travel in the US fell by 15pc in the year following the Twin Towers attack on 2001. The paper concluded that people are ultimately rational and learn to control their fear. Life goes on as normal.
Facebook 25Twitter Pinterest 0LinkedIn 0Share 25Email
Wow that's actually incredible. Now all they need to do is dismantle some of their social safety net citing the same purpose. It flows into the coffers of their enemies. Time to reuse those coffee grounds in "loyal" Muslim neighbourhoods.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Inclusion and acceptance might prevent the situation from getting worse, but will in my opinion do little to nothing to reduce the existing inherent susceptibility of muslims to violent interpretations of islam. This is the road that has been walked on in western Europe in the last century. Forced assimilation into western culture, and evolution of islam into a religion with less susceptibility of literal interpretation seems a safer road. I suspect the ingrained cultural concept of 'inshallah' does not help either, as it promotes a more passive stance to one's own destiny, and might be related to the tendency to blame outside factors for one's situation.Originally posted by astonas View Post
Put this in contrast with east-asian culture, which is the opposite of this. How many problems does western Europe have with ethnic Chinese? Interestingly, ethnic Chinese also don't tend to assimilate into western european culture and often segregate themselves into their own communities by choice.
In that regard, I fully support the French refusal to allow people not to assimilate into French culture. They've failed to fully convey this forced assimilation by grouping too many people together in banlieus, losing all grip on the segregated communities of immigrants. The other damage that has already been done is allowing more people in with foreign culture than you can successfully absorb and assimilate.
Denmark is wisely choosing not to follow that path, by severely restricting inflows, and forcing any newcomers to assimilate into Danish society.
Together with the 'combat aginst ISIS' the western world shows a two-faced support for nations that are actively exporting, or indirectly financing/aiding extremist islam, such as: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.
Opportunism by our political establishment, focused on short-term foreign policy goals, as well as financial interests trump good sense and are slowly poisoning our societies in most countries in the western world. I see populist movements that tend to propose non-solutions that may aggravate the situation (if they got too much power). However, healthy democratic influence by these parties could force the establishment to implement policies that make common sense and remove some of the opportunistic policies that are poisoning our societies.
In the coming years, two countries that would be interesting to follow are Sweden and France. Sweden has had a history that is very accommodating to immigrants, which translates in the record numbers of people entering their country in the past year. At one point, their system may snap under the burden of the inflow, and Swedes may show a backlash against these overly accommodating policies.
In France, the rise of Marine Le Pen will likely shape policies of both the establishment parties, PS and UMP. I suspect they'll start more earnestly to remove extremist influences from their native soil, by denying select salafist/wahabbi imams access to the country, and by making it less easy to get back into France after having fought in foreign countries for islamist causes.engineer with little (or even no) economic insightComment
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Re: Paris Attack
Just wondering - why this thread is 2 pages long, but there is not a single post about San Bernardino massacre??Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Feel free to start one. Personally, I'm too stunned to know what to say that would be worth posting.Originally posted by ER59 View Post
Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Prayers for the victims.Comment
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Re: Paris Attack
Originally posted by astonas View Post
With the accusation on who is funding ISIS, it now appears to be more complicated than it appears. Replace "ISIS" above with the "US govt"?Comment
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