2016 & beyond..............

[Mega]

2016:- China joins IMF
2017:- China adds Yuan to SDR basket (Might back with Gold?)
2017:- China agrees deal were IMF takes on Mega debts of the West
2018:- Global "Reset" of currency takes place
2018:- China raises value of Yuan to allow her own people to afford her goods & services (doesn't need the West).

Your thoughts?
Mike

[dcarrigg]

Re: 2016 & beyond..............

Seems a little fast to me, Mike. Way I see it, China is still a planned economy. So all you have to do is look to the 5-year-plans to see what they're up to. 6,5% average annual GDP growth, development of new silk road, end of one-child policy, increasing anti-corruption measures, increase to 45% urbanization, halving of domestic poverty by 2020, decrease in coal use, improving domestic consumption somewhat -- these are the goals they set forth. And the Chinese Communist Party has been pretty good at meeting those goals. The big ramp-down isn't teed up yet. Maybe in the 2021-2025 five year plan. Maybe the one after that. The long-term '85 plan was to chug along getting wealthier until 2025 when they hit nominal economic parody with the US. My guess is they stay export-oriented and mercantilist (because it works) until then, lowering growth targets and increasing consumption upon the way. Maybe you get down to 4.0% growth and domestic consumption prized over exports by the 2026-2030 plan. The next five years are about continuing moderate-high growth, stretching the construction machine outwards, and continuing to move people out of the countryside and into new cities and encouraging them to start families there.

[santafe2]

Re: 2016 & beyond..............

Seems a little fast to me, Mike.

And the Chinese Communist Party has been pretty good at meeting those goals.

Agree, this is a generational change not yearly.

And this hasn't gone unnoticed in the US government and the corporate structure that supports them. If we're competing, democracy is a fools errand.

[Mega]

Re: 2016 & beyond..............

Psss............ what to buy some Houses in Blighty?

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/11/osb...d-derivatives/

[makimanos]

Re: 2016 & beyond..............

There are more questions than answers. As John Mauldin used to say for Japan, I think PRC is a bag searching for a windshield.. Hardly to believe anything official from them.