Autonomous On-Demand Pods

[vt]

http://www.wired.com/2015/11/this-gu...n-demand-pods/

[santafe2]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

http://www.wired.com/2015/11/this-gu...n-demand-pods/

Why? Are people really going to still live in suburbs? I thought we were going to make the commute go away. People will still have jobs that require a commute? Won't we all just strap an Oculus Rift on our head and go to work? In my future, I live on or very near arable land in a small community and help control my own food supply. I work virtually anywhere I'm hired but I don't physically move long distances. It seems so archaic. This thing looks like a mechanized, sanitized version of Uber. Others will choose to live in city centers, close to work and their larger more dense community. The in-between will be unsustainable.

[vt]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Why not?

“You see things; and you say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’" Robert Kennedy

[santafe2]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Why not?

Because it doesn't make any sense.

[vt]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Certainly if you think a huge percentage of people live in urban environments. But it may not be as many in urban areas as thought:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...erican-cities/

Yes probably 50% live in urban areas, but 25% to 40% may be suburban.

Millennials actually are moving out of cities on a net basis, and as they form families this will speed up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...y-think-again/

The mobile pods may be more popular than you think.

[LazyBoy]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Millennials actually are moving out of cities on a net basis, and as they form families this will speed up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...y-think-again/

It didn't say how many were moving back in with their parents.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Why not?

“You see things; and you say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’" Robert Kennedy

Because this is America.

We can't even build simple transit that we know works. Like trains.

LA just got a subway a couple of years ago. But most of America's million plus metros don't even have one of those. Iran has managed to build 5 subway systems in the past 5 years even with sanctions. China has built dozens and dozens.

Boston got its first subway going in 1896. We can't even get to 19th century technology anymore because we whine, moan, and complain about cost. How the hell do you figure ultra-expensive autonomous pods and hypertubes would get installed everywhere when we can't even get simple, low-cost, 19th century trains running?

[vt]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Your points are well taken.

It would of course take a miracle for this to work, but maybe once in a 100 times we get lucky. I'd like to see numbers and possible users.

Personally I think autonomous cars may work especially for older people who can't drive otherwise. The problem with this is it's puts more people on the road.

Teleconferencing from home or a local neighborhood community work center is likely the best bet to reduce commuting and it's costs.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Your points are well taken.

It would of course take a miracle for this to work, but maybe once in a 100 times we get lucky. I'd like to see numbers and possible users.

Personally I think autonomous cars may work especially for older people who can't drive otherwise. The problem with this is it's puts more people on the road.

Teleconferencing from home or a local neighborhood community work center is likely the best bet to reduce commuting and it's costs.

Yeah. I mean, there's a bit of a paradox there. Older folks probably could benefit most from it, but also would probably be the latest adopters. I could see trust-funders and hipsters (yuppies 2.0) dropping the cash on this on a limited scale in the most wealthy, highly urbanized areas, like they do with ZipCar and Uber or whatever now. It could function as a more-expensive, high-end, bus substitute where you wouldn't have to interact with poor or middle class people who would be priced out of using it. But by the time you're a bit more grown and you need to get things done or take trips to the dump or bring 3 kids somewhere without buying 3 tickets or whatever, my guess is there's no use for them. They don't really solve the problems of a home-owning suburban family. And the good public schools will still be in the 'burbs. The for-profit charter school movement in big cities will make sure that urban schools are a cesspool getting every last dollar sucked out-of-state by FIRE like oxygen. Shareholders will come before students every time. They actually have to by law.

My guess is that you're right, vt: suburbs will become increasingly popular with millennials as they have children. They're a less-religious generation as a whole, and so they will be less liable to use the religious private education system built up in urban areas, although some still will. That means they're going to start worrying about school districts eventually. Most will still not own homes, and may never get there. But you may also see millennial homeownership spike as their parents start dying off, their student loans start getting paid off, and they get a little capital saved up for the first time in their lives around their late 30s, early 40s. They're going to realize real quick that it's the last chance they have to own a house or have kids if they are ever going to do it. A 30 year mortgage puts them at 70 by the time they pay it off, and biologically, you're not really easily having healthy children later than late 30s/early 40s. Especially as urban prices are back to just as unaffordable and ridiculous as they were during the peak of the bubble years, you'll see some fleeing back to suburbia where it's cheaper and 2-bed apartment rent doesn't average 200% of median income or something insane.

But I still don't see how pods fit in. Cars are relatively cheap, flexible, and effective transportation right now. Busses work for cheap and effective mass transit, if a bit inflexible. Pods would be flexible, but not necessarily cheap or effective. I just don't see what value added the pod gives you that cars and busses don't. They travel on roads, so they get stuck in traffic. Busses already let you screw around with e-mail or read a book during your commute. Cars already get you anywhere you want to go cheap with minimal effort and allow you to add passengers with near-zero added cost. The only market I can imagine for these things is if you make them a yuppie status symbol or if you publicly subsidize the hell out of them for some reason. Busses are already usually heavily subsidized, likely more efficient, and certainly significantly cheaper on a per-passenger basis to purchase and operate than pods would be. So it would be hard to make a public case for subsidizing pods. Rail is controversial enough, like I was saying. But if you make actually touching a steering wheel and pedals some kind of disgusting, filthy task that only wretched and worthless workers would stoop to doing, then maybe rich people will spring for this stuff.

[santafe2]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

Because this is America.

We can't even build simple transit that we know works. Like trains.

LA just got a subway a couple of years ago. But most of America's million plus metros don't even have one of those. Iran has managed to build 5 subway systems in the past 5 years even with sanctions. China has built dozens and dozens.

Boston got its first subway going in 1896. We can't even get to 19th century technology anymore because we whine, moan, and complain about cost. How the hell do you figure ultra-expensive autonomous pods and hypertubes would get installed everywhere when we can't even get simple, low-cost, 19th century trains running?

You made me laugh dc, your, "because this is America" argument sounds more like one of my smart ass remarks than one of your thoughtful posts. But maybe it's worth walking through that idea.

In the US, we're all competing to be in the top 5%, (north of $1M, south of $1.5M), and we have one measure of that status; accumulated wealth. And since it’s not easy to get there, we reward the top 10% with tax breaks on income earned through capital investment. The corollary to this issue is that we punish income received for labor. And when labor complains, those jobs are moved somewhere where there’s a lot less regulation and civil rights.

Capital income earners may make much more than wage earners but they have no intention of ever paying taxes close to the level wage earners pay so it’s impossible to collect enough money to pay for new infrastructure projects while supporting the military.

It’s required that we spend $600B a year to ensure safety for international business but paying for schools for the other 90% is a waste of money. So is your health care. If you’re in the 90% you should get vouchers for health care.

So the longer answer, is that we don’t have functional infrastructure in the US because the top 10% don’t require the infrastructure and the other 90% of US citizens are just products with a shelf life. Most of the bottom 50% have figured out that the entire system is a bad joke with them as the punchline.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

You made me laugh dc, your, "because this is America" argument sounds more like one of my smart ass remarks than one of your thoughtful posts. But maybe it's worth walking through that idea.

In the US, we're all competing to be in the top 5%, (north of $1M, south of $1.5M), and we have one measure of that status; accumulated wealth. And since it’s not easy to get there, we reward the top 10% with tax breaks on income earned through capital investment. The corollary to this issue is that we punish income received for labor. And when labor complains, those jobs are moved somewhere where there’s a lot less regulation and civil rights.

Capital income earners may make much more than wage earners but they have no intention of ever paying taxes close to the level wage earners pay so it’s impossible to collect enough money to pay for new infrastructure projects while supporting the military.

It’s required that we spend $600B a year to ensure safety for international business but paying for schools for the other 90% is a waste of money. So is your health care. If you’re in the 90% you should get vouchers for health care.

So the longer answer, is that we don’t have functional infrastructure in the US because the top 10% don’t require the infrastructure and the other 90% of US citizens are just products with a shelf life. Most of the bottom 50% have figured out that the entire system is a bad joke with them as the punchline.

"Roads?" Where we're going, we don't need "roads."

[vt]

Re: Autonomous On-Demand Pods

The 1% don't need roads for even local commutes:

http://wtop.com/news/2014/07/backyar...-his-two-hour/