Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

[BK]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Tranny and motor from a Ferrari even on its worth day $8K-$20K http://www.ebay.com/sch/Complete-Eng...1373746/i.html
VS
Tesla Motors - Fukuta - built in Taiwan electric motor???

[DSpencer]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

It just hurts when anyone compares Ferrari to Tesla. The new 488 GTB, 670 HP, 205 mph is a real vehicle. Mr. Musk is not capable of designing a $250K vehicle anyone would choose over a Ferrari.

Is Ferrari capable of designing a $100k electric vehicle that anyone would choose over a Tesla? I agree they shouldn't be compared in the sense they operate in market segments with very little overlap, but it's not really fair to criticize Tesla for not being able to beat Ferrari at their own game. Just like Ferrari couldn't beat Honda at making affordable, fuel efficient, mid-size sedans.

[DSpencer]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Apple buying Tesla is slightly different than Apple entering the car business.
Apple buying Tesla only makes sense if Tesla goes bankrupt and Apple buys the company for pennies on the dollar.

However, Apple designing and manufacturing a car does make sense.
Remember, Apple is sitting on $200 billion cash.
That is enough money to design four or five automobiles, build three factories to manufacture them, purchase and install all the tooling; hire and staff the factories; and manufacture 4 months inventory of the cars. And still have $100 billion in the bank left as a contingency

Apple's business model is to do ground breaking design, then hire out manufacturing to other firms.
So they probably won't build the auto plants, they will find a car or truck company with spare capacity, and the world has plenty of those right now. Apple will probably finance all the tooling and testing for their manufacturing partner, all from cash.

They prefer the corner of a marketplace where low volume meets high prices and high margins.
Apple does pretty well with the iMac still, and makes no effort to push out Dell or HP.
Apple lets those guys struggle with tiny margins and high volumes, Apple sells expensive iMacs to the few who will pay for them.

The product design community and high tech community seem convinced Apple is designing a car, probably a self-driving EV.
Google "Apple car" or "Apple project Titan".

Here's a typical article http://gas2.org/2015/10/26/5-things-...the-apple-car/

Just because Apple has lots of cash doesn't mean it makes sense for them to get into an capital intensive and competitive market where they have very little knowledge or expertise. The situation is very reminiscent of Apple's plans to make a TV. Lo and behold, they created Apple TV. Only, it wasn't really a TV at all. I would expect that an Apple Car is likely to be a similar situation. They design an interface or feature of a car rather than a whole car from the ground up.

[BK]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Wouldn't be more likely for Apple to buy a software company, for example Salesforce (CRM)!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Wouldn't be more likely for Apple to buy a software company, for example Salesforce (CRM)!

Does Apple even have much of a history of acquisitions like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon?

I think I recall Apple buying Next or something or other that was tied into Steve Jobs back in the 90's, but I thought that was more along the lines of acquiring Steve Jobs than the underlying company.

Who would want to acquire Elon Musk?

For all of his evangelical strengths and sycophantic fanboy base I would think he'd be a cat herding nightmare going off message on a regular basis.

[BK]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Yes. Most computer companies are roll-ups. For example, the modern Mac OSX is a direct decedent of the NeXT operation system.

NeXt was a $400 Million acquisition. But, the kind of money that it would cost to acquire Salesforce or Tesla Motors is a rare transaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tions_by_Apple

[santafe2]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Does Apple even have much of a history of acquisitions like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon?

Apple acquisitions happen before most people know about the company. 73 as totaled in the Wiki article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tions_by_Apple

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

It just hurts when anyone compares Ferrari to Tesla. The new 488 GTB, 670 HP, 205 mph is a real vehicle. Mr. Musk is not capable of designing a $250K vehicle anyone would choose over a Ferrari.

+1

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Just because Apple has lots of cash doesn't mean it makes sense for them to get into an capital intensive and competitive market where they have very little knowledge or expertise. The situation is very reminiscent of Apple's plans to make a TV. Lo and behold, they created Apple TV. Only, it wasn't really a TV at all. I would expect that an Apple Car is likely to be a similar situation. They design an interface or feature of a car rather than a whole car from the ground up.

I am of the view that Apple is evaluating a similar "convergence" potential in the personal transportation space as it was attempting with Apple TV.

A great number of Apple's customers see themselves as at the forefront of social evolution - as well as being young (even if they are Boomers), hip and urban. If you are urban and of modest means you use public transit. If you have a bit of money you buy an expensive, high tech bicycle to get around (and constantly worry someone is going to steal it). If you have greater means (or when its raining on your bicycle) you use Car2Go (the Car2Go app can be downloaded to your iPhone from the Apple site).

The inconvenience of the latter is that one has to walk around and find the car, the range of coverage is deliberately limited within each city and Car2Go has to provide an incentive to members so some of them will periodically make the effort to fill up the fuel tank. In addition, the fleet of Smart4Two cars with internal combustion engines needs to be maintained (regular oil and filter changes, brakes, etc).

Now imagine combining a self-driving electric vehicle with Uber-like software, all backed by the financial and design capabilities of Apple:
- the vehicle comes to where you are when summoned;
- the driverless feature addresses both the security of passengers and the "slave labour" of drivers issues (the latter a topic of much discussion elsewhere on iTulip);
- a self-driving electric car can be programmed to automatically "refuel" itself by proceeding to and plugging itself into a charging station (much less complexity than trying to solve that problem with an internal combustion vehicle);
- maintenance is comparatively less: no oil changes, optimized regenerative braking to save the pads, no potential for abusive driving at the hands of irresponsible drivers;
- the convenience and privacy of such vehicles will appeal to the Apple demographic much more than riding the bus or walking around looking for Smart car.

Methinks this is the reason Apple is investigating self-driving electric vehicle technology.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

GRG55 those are very intriguing insights.
what you describe would certainly work

[santafe2]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

Now imagine combining a self-driving electric vehicle with Uber-like software, all backed by the financial and design capabilities of Apple:
- the vehicle comes to where you are when summoned;
- the driverless feature addresses both the security of passengers and the "slave labour" of drivers issues...

So Uber is the cotton gin of transportation and driverless cars end the slavery of mobility? Will the South fight driverless cars for 150 years?

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla doomed- Bob Lutz

So Uber is the cotton gin of transportation and driverless cars end the slavery of mobility? Will the South fight driverless cars for 150 years?

Trying to stop technology enabled applications such as Uber is like trying to stop the tide from coming in.