Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

when did i ever say i was 100% pms? i'm 30% pms and rest cash. now i do play about 10% of my money in spec and the debt deflation bear market has been playing out very nicely, thank you. don't know about richard russell but i recall he was saying "it's different this time" and talking about global growth, etc. the itulip dec. 27, 2007 call is only the 2nd time in 7 years that itulip has made a specific stock market call that i know of. if it turns out to be correct maybe you should write to russell and let him know.

Top investors shows your only investment as gold something, I think, and I really don't recollect your ever saying it was only 30 million dollars worth of your net worth.

There is little doubt that Russell moves with the winds of the markets, but he is apparently always looking at them. Russell writes or wrote when I was reading him, he thinks gold and cash are the places to be now (a while back--days, weeks ago). "if" is the biggest word in our language, and gets back to the difficulty of "seeing" the future. All of this is a bet.

metalman, I'm not on your case here, but of all the posters I recollect, and memory is poorer and poorer, you are the most devoted "disciple" of EJ's who participates here. I truly wish I had that sort of confidence in anyone. I hope he proves correct on and on, and that you as well as he profit handsomely, but it all remains to unwind and come to fruition.

Edit: As you are in gold and cash, it would seem too that you did not act upon EJ's call. I didn't either. For me this gets back to asking what is the absolute value of a call regarding markets' direction if no one acts upon it?

[metalman]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Top investors shows your only investment as gold something, I think, and I really don't recollect your ever saying it was only 30 million dollars worth of your net worth.

There is little doubt that Russell moves with the winds of the markets, but he is apparently always looking at them. Russell writes or wrote when I was reading him, he thinks gold and cash are the places to be now (a while back--days, weeks ago). "if" is the biggest work in our language, and gets back to the difficulty of "seeing" the future. All of this is a bet.

metalman, I'm not on your case here, but of all the posters I recollect, and memory is poorer and poorer, you are the most devoted "disciple" of EJ's who participates here. I truly wish I had that sort of confidence in anyone. I hope he proves correct on and on, and that you as well as he profit handsomely, but it all remains to unwind and come to fruition.

hey, i'm as cynical as the next guy. i measure on track record. period!

i pulled this off the select subscriber page...

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession Q4 2007
• July 2007: Before the Stroke of Midnight

what do you think? no bad? maybe he's wrong on the ddbm but then maybe it's more dangerous to be against than with, eh?

the one missing item from this list is the part where he says "get back into stocks" in 2001. that would have been smart for stock investors. on the other hand he says "get into gold" in 2001 and gold has done better than stocks, so it's worked out ok.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

hey, i'm as cynical as the next guy. i measure on track record. period!

i pulled this off the select subscriber page...

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession Q4 2007
• July 2007: Before the Stroke of Midnight

what do you think? no bad? maybe he's wrong on the ddbm but then maybe it's more dangerous to be against than with, eh?

the one missing item from this list is the part where he says "get back into stocks" in 2001. that would have been smart for stock investors. on the other hand he says "get into gold" in 2001 and gold has done better than stocks, so it's worked out ok.

Everything one does where success or failure are possible outcomes is like a ballgame (at least those that must be decided). It makes no difference what one's record is, in the next game does your record dictate that you shall win it. Ask the Patriots.

No disagreement with EJ's percentages. He's great. He has the gift of serious analysis and puts in the time to do his best to discover what may approach truth.

Edit: did you see my edit above?

[Jayhawk]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

I am relatively new as a subscriber. However, I have been reading Itulip for about a year or so. Because of Itulip, Jan 07, I sold all my stock mutual funds and positioned myself in PM and FXE. So, far, I'm up quite a bit farther than I've ever been in a managed fund. My question is, with all that's happening economically, it seems as though the market has become deaf to it. It keeps going up when it should be going down. I don't understand. Is the market being manipulated by the fed and the powers that be???? Randy

I'm new here as well, having just stumbled across America's Bubble Economy at the local library. I'm trying to come up to speed very quickly as I am NOT an experienced investor. That being said, I do have a good amount of $ and I would rather not lose it all!!:eek: Fortunately, we are in a good position in comparison to most Americans. That is, we have no CC debt, car debt, we have money saved for the short term and long term. I run my own business, so I'm feeling a little uneasy about the prospect of a severe downturn. (I rent a cheap office space month to month and I can do this job from a home office if need be.) Perhaps the worst move we have made is buying a home in late 2006. If I had been aware of this bubble situation, I would have never had bought at that time. We are in CO (North of CO Springs) in an area that has not seen a rapid rise up and at the time appears to be flat at worse. We did a 30yr with 20% down at 5.6% I'm a little nervous about being in this place after all I've read over the past few weeks. I've got Bubble on the Brain these days!


To be honest, I've read a lot of posts here and I'm totally lost at times...You might as well be speaking Latin. I would love any advice you all might provide to a normal guy who is trying to navigate this situation.

1. Has anyone sold their house as a result learning about this potential housing downturn? What's your strategy regarding your house? I heard Peter Schif is currently renting.

2. I'm sitting on all cash right now (Treasury back MM accounts.) I saw the person recommend the gentleman from Tradeview.com I too talked to a rep from Europac and thought their fees seemed very high. Any others that you guys could recommend? I wouldn't mind having someone of this mindset manage my money for me.

3. Sterling Trust. I found these guys who do IRA's with Gold Bullion. Anyone know them & have feedback?

4. Am. Bubble Economy-They basically said "Gold & Euros" Are people on the Euros thing still?

Thanks, folks!

[Guest]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

... I too talked to a rep from Europac and thought their fees seemed very high. ...

I agree - Peter Schifty's fees are too high - the rationale is that 'this discourages clients from trading'. However this to me does not dispel the fact that the accounts are so expensive as to practically encourage near immobility in ones positions. Good brokerage in lots of ways - but the extraordinarily high fees are not good.

[Jayhawk]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Lukester-

Are there others you could point me to who might be worth investigating?

Thanks

[Guest]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Jayhawk -

I think you get much better stock and sector advice from specialised newsletters than you would from brokerages. There are literally dozens of newsletters which have excellent track records. I think a lot of people around these pages rely on newsletters, so there are probably lots of comments on which ones are good around here.

For this commodities market I like

Stephen Leeb's "The Complete Investor" - very conservative - AAA intelligence, with timing advice too

James Dines - "The Dines Letter" - Dines is a genius in my opinioin

Aden Sisters - "The Aden Letter" - Aden Sisters go way back into the 1970's and are very good in bull markets. Excellent long term charts. Simple, clear, macro advice on the commodities. Richard Russell says of the Adens: "I'd award them five stars if I could".

Outstanding Investments - (An Agora publication). Very good robust portfolios of commodities stocks. A top performer of the last seven years. AGORA are a big publishing house. A few of us like to poke fun at them around here, because their sales pitches are sometimes interminable and really are 'hard sell' to the point of being lurid.

They are a bit like 'street hawkers' compared to iTulip's style. There is a lot of vulgarity in their marketing, but one or two of their funds are the real deal. Outstanding Investments is the 'flagship' commodities newsletter at AGORA, and can quickly build a very wisely selected all-around commodities portfolio for you. You would literally overnight stop having to worry or agonise over which commodities stocks are best.

In sum, iTulip provides the only real in-depth macro analysis. All the others are stock & portfolio advisories, and don't really do macro analysis in any meaningful sense. It's also important to note that Euro-Pac don't really do macro analysis either. They are a brokerage. Peter Schifty writes books, with lots of good ideas, but his attention is heavily redirected by running a brokerage as well. For in-depth macro analysis, go to iTulip - hands down.

Of all of them, Stephen Leeb has the deepest understanding of the macro trends. He could (maybe) give Janszen a run for his money on some of the current issues. Leeb has two masters and a Phd, earned concurrently in three years. He's *smart*. However, that said, only on the "peak cheap oil" question is he clearly out ahead of iTulip. Far ahead. Leeb has been one of the most clear-eyed observers of this trend - and I can confirm that he called it, in astonishing detail in terms of it's economic repercussions, way, way back - in 1999.

I'm also very appreciative of iTulip. However I think that the best loyalty is able to point out shortcomings - like the recent little editorial 'no-no', without being regarded as an 'un-person' by the groupies for calling this to the general attention. The fact that not a single reader here volunteered any comment does not reflect glowingly upon the 'independence of voice' which this little community believes itself to have.

The next time I read posts around here by people saying they are going to 'vote independent' in some regard, I think I'll be raising an eyebrow.

I think if you spend $1000 or $1200 per year and buy all the above referenced newsletters, you'd have a superb, eagle's eye view of the market trends in commodities, oil, gold, etc. Combine all the above with iTulip as your "mother ship" (cruising at about 45000 feet over the battlefield) and you are admirably equipped to meet all the curve balls this market will spit out over the next decade. (mixing a variety of metaphors here - but the iTulip Graf-Zeppelin is my favorite).

I'm gonna get me a premium subscription to iTulip soon now too - if I can get past those partisans around here who feel that those who are willing to call iTulip to account on an error here or there are 'suitable' for the community. I really, really don't go for 'think-all-alike' environments.

[FRED]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Jayhawk -

I think you get much better stock and sector advice from specialised newsletters than you would from brokerages. There are literally dozens of newsletters which have excellent track records. I think a lot of people around these pages rely on newsletters, so there are probably lots of comments on which ones are good around here.

For this commodities market I like

Stephen Leeb's "The Complete Investor" - very conservative - AAA intelligence, with timing advice too

James Dines - "The Dines Letter" - Dines is a genius in my opinioin

Aden Sisters - "The Aden Letter" - Aden Sisters go way back into the 1970's and are very good in bull markets. Excellent long term charts. Simple, clear, macro advice on the commodities. Richard Russell says of the Adens: "I'd award them five stars if I could".

Outstanding Investments - (An Agora publication). Very good robust portfolios of commodities stocks. A top performer of the last seven years. AGORA are a big publishing house. A few of us like to poke fun at them around here, because their sales pitches are sometimes interminable and really are 'hard sell' to the point of being lurid.

They are a bit like 'street hawkers' compared to iTulip's style. There is a lot of vulgarity in their marketing, but one or two of their funds are the real deal. Outstanding Investments is the 'flagship' commodities newsletter at AGORA, and can quickly build a very wisely selected all-around commodities portfolio for you. You would literally overnight stop having to worry or agonise over which commodities stocks are best.

In sum, iTulip provides the only real in-depth macro analysis. All the others are stock & portfolio advisories, and don't really do macro analysis in any meaningful sense. It's also important to note that Euro-Pac don't really do macro analysis either. They are a brokerage. Peter Schifty writes books, with lots of good ideas, but his attention is heavily redirected by running a brokerage as well. For in-depth macro analysis, go to iTulip - hands down.

Of all of them, Stephen Leeb has the deepest understanding of the macro trends. He could (maybe) give Janszen a run for his money on some of the current issues. Leeb has two masters and a Phd, earned concurrently in three years. He's *smart*. However, that said, only on the "peak cheap oil" question is he clearly out ahead of iTulip. Far ahead. Leeb has been one of the most clear-eyed observers of this trend - and I can confirm that he called it, in astonishing detail in terms of it's economic repercussions, way, way back - in 1999.

I'm also very appreciative of iTulip. However I think that the best loyalty is able to point out shortcomings - like the recent little editorial 'no-no', without being regarded as an 'un-person' by the groupies for calling this to the general attention. The fact that not a single reader here volunteered any comment does not reflect glowingly upon the 'independence of voice' which this little community believes itself to have.

The next time I read posts around here by people saying they are going to 'vote independent' in some regard, I think I'll be raising an eyebrow.

I think if you spend $1000 or $1200 per year and buy all the above referenced newsletters, you'd have a superb, eagle's eye view of the market trends in commodities, oil, gold, etc. Combine all the above with iTulip as your "mother ship" (cruising at about 45000 feet over the battlefield) and you are admirably equipped to meet all the curve balls this market will spit out over the next decade. (mixing a variety of metaphors here - but the iTulip Graf-Zeppelin is my favorite).

I'm gonna get me a premium subscription to iTulip soon now too - if I can get past those partisans around here who feel that those who are willing to call iTulip to account on an error here or there are 'suitable' for the community. I really, really don't go for 'think-all-alike' environments.

That's an excellent summary. Perhaps we should make arrangements to make some of these other newsletters available to iTulip subscribers at a discount if folks are interested.

If you ever feel as though anyone who represents iTulip, Inc. is discouraging dissent or pointing our errors, you let me know. We encourage it. You may get arguments from your fellow iTulipers but it will be respectful, we can guarantee that. Spamming the site with links to competitors' sites is, of course, discouraged.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

I'm gonna get me a premium subscription to iTulip soon now too

With respect to everyone in the whole wide world, Oops, there goes the neighborhood.

[metalman]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

With respect to everyone in the whole wide world, Oops, there goes the neighborhood.

what luke lacks in careful analysis he makes up in volume.

[Jay]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

I get the Stansberry and Associates newletters (all of them) and have been very happy with the service. They are also under the AGORA umbrella and the adds are a bit strong. The actual letters though are for the most part excellent. They have a bunch of different letters written by qualified people all with different bents. I've gotten comfortable with a few and have been doing well. Steve Sjuggerud is pretty sharp, his SRS call many months ago has been keeping my portfolio nice and steady through the downturns.

[Jayhawk]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Jayhawk -

I think you get much better stock and sector advice from specialised newsletters than you would from brokerages. There are literally dozens of newsletters which have excellent track records. I think a lot of people around these pages rely on newsletters, so there are probably lots of comments on which ones are good around here.

For this commodities market I like

Stephen Leeb's "The Complete Investor" - very conservative - AAA intelligence, with timing advice too

James Dines - "The Dines Letter" - Dines is a genius in my opinioin

Aden Sisters - "The Aden Letter" - Aden Sisters go way back into the 1970's and are very good in bull markets. Excellent long term charts. Simple, clear, macro advice on the commodities. Richard Russell says of the Adens: "I'd award them five stars if I could".

Outstanding Investments - (An Agora publication). Very good robust portfolios of commodities stocks. A top performer of the last seven years. AGORA are a big publishing house. A few of us like to poke fun at them around here, because their sales pitches are sometimes interminable and really are 'hard sell' to the point of being lurid.

They are a bit like 'street hawkers' compared to iTulip's style. There is a lot of vulgarity in their marketing, but one or two of their funds are the real deal. Outstanding Investments is the 'flagship' commodities newsletter at AGORA, and can quickly build a very wisely selected all-around commodities portfolio for you. You would literally overnight stop having to worry or agonise over which commodities stocks are best.

In sum, iTulip provides the only real in-depth macro analysis. All the others are stock & portfolio advisories, and don't really do macro analysis in any meaningful sense. It's also important to note that Euro-Pac don't really do macro analysis either. They are a brokerage. Peter Schifty writes books, with lots of good ideas, but his attention is heavily redirected by running a brokerage as well. For in-depth macro analysis, go to iTulip - hands down.

Of all of them, Stephen Leeb has the deepest understanding of the macro trends. He could (maybe) give Janszen a run for his money on some of the current issues. Leeb has two masters and a Phd, earned concurrently in three years. He's *smart*. However, that said, only on the "peak cheap oil" question is he clearly out ahead of iTulip. Far ahead. Leeb has been one of the most clear-eyed observers of this trend - and I can confirm that he called it, in astonishing detail in terms of it's economic repercussions, way, way back - in 1999.

I'm also very appreciative of iTulip. However I think that the best loyalty is able to point out shortcomings - like the recent little editorial 'no-no', without being regarded as an 'un-person' by the groupies for calling this to the general attention. The fact that not a single reader here volunteered any comment does not reflect glowingly upon the 'independence of voice' which this little community believes itself to have.

The next time I read posts around here by people saying they are going to 'vote independent' in some regard, I think I'll be raising an eyebrow.

I think if you spend $1000 or $1200 per year and buy all the above referenced newsletters, you'd have a superb, eagle's eye view of the market trends in commodities, oil, gold, etc. Combine all the above with iTulip as your "mother ship" (cruising at about 45000 feet over the battlefield) and you are admirably equipped to meet all the curve balls this market will spit out over the next decade. (mixing a variety of metaphors here - but the iTulip Graf-Zeppelin is my favorite).

I'm gonna get me a premium subscription to iTulip soon now too - if I can get past those partisans around here who feel that those who are willing to call iTulip to account on an error here or there are 'suitable' for the community. I really, really don't go for 'think-all-alike' environments.

Excellent. I really appreciate the long reply.


I have to wonder if the scenarios in ABE & Crash Proof due come to fruition, what type of country/world we will be facing. We might be sitting here with protected assets to some degree, but when a pissed off 80% or more of the country who lose everything & sink into a massive recession or depression it's going to get ugly. To follow this through to it's implications, you would have a massive amount of people (50% or greater?) who would default on their home loans,credit cards, etc. What are the banks going to do? Repo half the homes in the country? These books and sites are interesting and helpful regarding finances, but I'm really wondering about the societal impact & the political impact of a massive economic downturn. (Especially since we are looking at a liberal Dem taking over the WH & who knows what will happen in the congress.) It's scary to think about the potential crime waves & chaos that could take place.

[rtchoke]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

I think you get much better stock and sector advice from specialised newsletters than you would from brokerages. There are literally dozens of newsletters which have excellent track records. I think a lot of people around these pages rely on newsletters, so there are probably lots of comments on which ones are good around here.

For this commodities market I like

Stephen Leeb's "The Complete Investor" - very conservative - AAA intelligence, with timing advice too

James Dines - "The Dines Letter" - Dines is a genius in my opinioin

Aden Sisters - "The Aden Letter" - Aden Sisters go way back into the 1970's and are very good in bull markets. Excellent long term charts. Simple, clear, macro advice on the commodities. Richard Russell says of the Adens: "I'd award them five stars if I could".

Thanks Lukester, great summation. Like you said, Itulip does a FANTASTIC job. Do you have any suggestions for an Itulip Quality-Like discussion board that would be geared more towards specific equities? I've come across a few places such as The Motely Fool, Stock Pickr, Agoracom to name a few; but can't say that I've been that impressed.(Perhaps ITulip has spoiled me with their quality?) I would like to expand my knowledge and develop more skill in
the specific breakdown of equites. Perhaps a book recommendations or two?

[swgprop]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Jayhawk - My situation is much like yours. On the positive side I've got chunks (one chunk = 10% of total more or less) invested in physical gold and gold ETF's, non-dollar stocks through EuroPac , ultrashort funds and puts and the balance in cash, cd's, etc. Basically in line with EJ's recommendations of shedding debt, building cash, lowering expectations.

The one exception is our home which was purchased in late 2006. We bought it because my wife and I were combining households and had looked for months for something suitable. We found it and bought it. From a financial perspective we should have instead rented and waited. But a home isn't purely a financial play is it?

I have no doubt that at some point in the next two to three years we will be at a juncture where the market value of our home will be substantially lower than our mortgage. And we will have to make a decision. I am somewhat of the mindset to play a little game of chicken with my servicer - lower my balance .. or else. But we shall see.

I Perhaps the worst move we have made is buying a home in late 2006. If I had been aware of this bubble situation, I would have never had bought at that time. We are in CO (North of CO Springs) in an area that has not seen a rapid rise up and at the time appears to be flat at worse. We did a 30yr with 20% down at 5.6% I'm a little nervous about being in this place after all I've read over the past few weeks. I've got Bubble on the Brain these days!

[Jayhawk]

Re: Crash Proof...How toprofit from the coming economic collapse

Jayhawk - My situation is much like yours. On the positive side I've got chunks (one chunk = 10% of total more or less) invested in physical gold and gold ETF's, non-dollar stocks through EuroPac , ultrashort funds and puts and the balance in cash, cd's, etc. Basically in line with EJ's recommendations of shedding debt, building cash, lowering expectations.

The one exception is our home which was purchased in late 2006. We bought it because my wife and I were combining households and had looked for months for something suitable. We found it and bought it. From a financial perspective we should have instead rented and waited. But a home isn't purely a financial play is it?

I have no doubt that at some point in the next two to three years we will be at a juncture where the market value of our home will be substantially lower than our mortgage. And we will have to make a decision. I am somewhat of the mindset to play a little game of chicken with my servicer - lower my balance .. or else. But we shall see.

Interesting. So are you saying if the house tanks, you are going to your lender to asks them to adjust the price owed or you are walking away from the house?