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  • Greece talks collaspe!

    Greece crisis escalates as IMF witholds support for a new bail-out deal

    Talks over new rescue package are derailed after less than a week as IMF seeks explicit assurances over debt relief from the Europeans

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    The IMF is now at loggerheards with Europe's largest creditor nation, Germany Photo: © 2014 Bloomberg Finance LP









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    By Mehreen Khan

    7:10PM BST 30 Jul 2015
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    108 Comments


    Talks over an €86bn bail-out for Greece have been thrown into turmoil after just four days as the International Monetary Fund said it would have no involvement in the country until it receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.


    An IMF official said the fund would withhold financial support unless it has guarantees Greece can carry out a "comprehensive" set of reforms and will be the beneficiary of debt relief from its European creditors.

    • Greece needs mass debt relief now
    • Why the euro isn't working for Germany or Greece

    The comments came after the IMF's executive board was told that the institution could no longer continue pumping more money into the debtor nation, according to a leaked document seen by the Financial Times.



    The Washington-based Fund has been torn over its involvement in Greece - its largest ever recipient country.

    The world's "lender of last resort' said it would continue talks with its creditor partners and the Leftist government of Athens, but made it clear the onus of keeping Greece in the eurozone now fell on Europe's reluctant member states.

    "There is a need for difficult decisions on both sides... difficult decisions in Greece regarding reforms, and difficult decisions among Greece's European partners about debt relief," said the official.

    "One should not be under the illusion that one side of it can fix the problem."

    The delay could last well into next year, forcing the other two-thirds of the Troika - the European Central Bank and European Commission - to bear the full costs of keeping Greece afloat.

    Athens was forced to request a new IMF rescue package last week after its existing programme - which expired in March 2016 - no longer satisfied IMF conditions to ensure growth and a return to the financial markets for the crisis-ridden economy.
    IMF managing director Christine Lagarde escalated calls for a "significant debt restructuring" this week. Debt forgiveness has long been the institution's key condition for extending its involvement in the country after five years of bail-outs.

    But Europe's creditor powers - led by Germany - have resisted write-offs, insisting that talks on debt relief can only proceed once the Greek government has satisfied demands to raise taxes, cut pensions spending and privatise assets.

    For all Germany's obstinacy, Berlin is determined to keep the IMF involved in a new rescue package. The Bundestag voted to re-start talks over a new Greek deal on the promise that that IMF would remain part of the Troika.

    The IMF's position now jeopardises the tentative basis for a new three-year package thrashed out by lenders over a tortuous weekend of talks in mid-July.
    The euro fell 0.55pc against the dollar in late afternoon trading to $1.09.
    The IMF's position is the latest in a long-line of reports questioning its involvement in an economy with an "unsustainable" and unpayable debt mountain.

    Ms Lagarde also voiced doubts the Leftist government could successfully carry out the demands of its creditors. "With the track record of the country, it’s inevitable that there is an element of debt restructuring," said the former finance minister of France.

    Greece was originally bailed out with the help of the IMF in 2010, after the institution was forced to argue that Greece represented a "systemic risk" to the global economy.

    The news came on the same day the IMF's mission chief for Greece, Romanian Delia Velculescu, landed in Athens for the first time as part of the negotiating teams working for a third rescue.
    Creditors were racing to secure an agreement by August 20, when Greece needs €3.3bn to avoid defaulting to the European Central Bank. In the absence of a deal, Athens will require another "bridging loan" from lenders - likely to come from Europe's joint rescue fund.

    Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is also battling an internal revolt among his Syriza party over the recessionary measures he was forced to submit to in a July 13 agreement.
    sipras delivers a speech at the Syriza party's central committee
    Mr Tsipras delivered a firm ultimatum to his restless Central Committee, which is made up of 200 party members, half of whom have already voted to reject the conditions to re-start talks.

    He called on them to hold an internal party vote as early as Sunday on whether or not to back his government. Should Mr Tsipras fail to gain a majority, he has said he will call snap elections as early as September. Up to 17 Syriza members resigned from the party following the showdown, according to reports in Greek media.

    “Whoever thinks another government and another prime minister would do better should speak up,” said a defiant Mr Tsipras.

  • #2
    Re: Greece talks collaspe!

    How long can they go on like this?
    The Greeks are looking like a failed state.........

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Greece talks collaspe!

      Originally posted by Mega View Post
      How long can they go on like this?
      The Greeks are looking like a failed state.........
      They are a failed state. The moment they joined the Euro.

      Here is a little analogy. Lets pretend there are two extended families and they decided , maybe due to marriage ties, to get more cozy. Lets say they agree to share. However one side of the family is large and influential while the other is small and working class. Now suppose there is a fellow by the name of Jed in the smaller family who decides to start sharing to enjoy this new association, raiding the refrigerator, sleeping over, getting bailed out of jail and maybe even knocking up a few girls around the neighbourhood. All of this bad behaviour was enabled by the union, and because of the nature of the agreement, Jed's kin is on the hook, not Jed. Most of Jed's family might be righteous folk, but with a few bad relatives the whole clan goes down. Credit corrupts and Germany is the creditor nation of Europe. The system that was created fuels credit to the idiots in Greece.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Greece talks collaspe!

        I think we are going to see 2 Euro's..........Anglo saxion one (Germany/Poland/Dutch/Norway etc) & Med one (Greeks/Italy/Spain Ireland)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Greece talks collaspe!

          IMF's Velculescu (Draculescu)is in Greece. IMF pressures Germany to accept debt haircut. Yes, Greece is a failed state and the current situation has no way out.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Greece talks collaspe!

            Originally posted by Mega View Post
            Greece crisis escalates as IMF witholds support for a new bail-out deal

            Talks over new rescue package are derailed after less than a week as IMF seeks explicit assurances over debt relief from the Europeans

            Facebook
            27
            Twitter
            80
            Pinterest
            0
            LinkedIn
            2
            Share
            109
            Email



            The IMF is now at loggerheards with Europe's largest creditor nation, Germany Photo: © 2014 Bloomberg Finance LP









            Which bank should I switch to? We highlight our five favourite bank accounts on the market, depending on what you want: customer service, perks, interest, loyalty or cashback

            Personal Finance


            By Mehreen Khan

            7:10PM BST 30 Jul 2015
            Follow
            108 Comments


            Talks over an €86bn bail-out for Greece have been thrown into turmoil after just four days as the International Monetary Fund said it would have no involvement in the country until it receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.


            An IMF official said the fund would withhold financial support unless it has guarantees Greece can carry out a "comprehensive" set of reforms and will be the beneficiary of debt relief from its European creditors.

            • Greece needs mass debt relief now
            • Why the euro isn't working for Germany or Greece

            The comments came after the IMF's executive board was told that the institution could no longer continue pumping more money into the debtor nation, according to a leaked document seen by the Financial Times.



            The Washington-based Fund has been torn over its involvement in Greece - its largest ever recipient country.

            The world's "lender of last resort' said it would continue talks with its creditor partners and the Leftist government of Athens, but made it clear the onus of keeping Greece in the eurozone now fell on Europe's reluctant member states.

            "There is a need for difficult decisions on both sides... difficult decisions in Greece regarding reforms, and difficult decisions among Greece's European partners about debt relief," said the official.

            "One should not be under the illusion that one side of it can fix the problem."

            The delay could last well into next year, forcing the other two-thirds of the Troika - the European Central Bank and European Commission - to bear the full costs of keeping Greece afloat.

            Athens was forced to request a new IMF rescue package last week after its existing programme - which expired in March 2016 - no longer satisfied IMF conditions to ensure growth and a return to the financial markets for the crisis-ridden economy.
            IMF managing director Christine Lagarde escalated calls for a "significant debt restructuring" this week. Debt forgiveness has long been the institution's key condition for extending its involvement in the country after five years of bail-outs.

            But Europe's creditor powers - led by Germany - have resisted write-offs, insisting that talks on debt relief can only proceed once the Greek government has satisfied demands to raise taxes, cut pensions spending and privatise assets.

            For all Germany's obstinacy, Berlin is determined to keep the IMF involved in a new rescue package. The Bundestag voted to re-start talks over a new Greek deal on the promise that that IMF would remain part of the Troika.

            The IMF's position now jeopardises the tentative basis for a new three-year package thrashed out by lenders over a tortuous weekend of talks in mid-July.
            The euro fell 0.55pc against the dollar in late afternoon trading to $1.09.
            The IMF's position is the latest in a long-line of reports questioning its involvement in an economy with an "unsustainable" and unpayable debt mountain.
            ... and this is why grexit is still not off the table. The ordoliberal contingent has used Grexit threats as a turning point, to direct their pressure to the west, instead of the south. The anglo-saxon IMF is now responding with the same motion. It, too, is turning away from Greece, to direct pressure east to Germany.

            The most dominant split in Europe has fully switched over from north/south to east/west. The UK, France, and Italy lead the Anglo-saxon ideology now, and Germany, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and the Baltics make up the core of the germanic/ordoliberal faction.

            Greece and Cyprus are swing/blocking votes, and the IMF needs them to continue to block banking reforms. So it is, unsurprisingly, happy to switch its stance on debt write-downs 180 degrees, to ensure that the ordoliberals are seen as the bad guys.

            Lost in all of this is that the size of the debt doesn't actually affect the economy of Greece in any way.

            Instead, the input into ANY economic projection is the interest payment on that debt, which DOES serve as an economic drag. Greece now gets better terms than any other member of the PIIGS, and the north has been explicit about being willing to make those payments even smaller, and stretch them over even longer periods - up to deferring payment for 50 years. So the IMF's actions here really can't have anything to do with economics, and must be attributed entirely to political optics.

            I'm guessing they're trying to ensure Greece and Cyprus' votes in blocking reform that would squelch the influence of anglo-saxon style banking in Europe.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Greece talks collaspe!

              Just heard, they need ANOTHER "Bridg-ing" loan...........

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Greece talks collaspe!

                Originally posted by gwynedd1 View Post
                They are a failed state. The moment they joined the Euro.

                Here is a little analogy. Lets pretend there are two extended families and they decided , maybe due to marriage ties, to get more cozy. Lets say they agree to share. However one side of the family is large and influential while the other is small and working class. Now suppose there is a fellow by the name of Jed in the smaller family who decides to start sharing to enjoy this new association, raiding the refrigerator, sleeping over, getting bailed out of jail and maybe even knocking up a few girls around the neighbourhood. All of this bad behaviour was enabled by the union, and because of the nature of the agreement, Jed's kin is on the hook, not Jed. Most of Jed's family might be righteous folk, but with a few bad relatives the whole clan goes down. Credit corrupts and Germany is the creditor nation of Europe. The system that was created fuels credit to the idiots in Greece.
                Wasn't this an arranged marriage? Aren't those supposed to be overseen and decided by adults, not the kids?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Greece talks collaspe!

                  Originally posted by astonas View Post
                  ... and this is why grexit is still not off the table. The ordoliberal contingent has used Grexit threats as a turning point, to direct their pressure to the west, instead of the south. The anglo-saxon IMF is now responding with the same motion. It, too, is turning away from Greece, to direct pressure east to Germany.

                  The most dominant split in Europe has fully switched over from north/south to east/west. The UK, France, and Italy lead the Anglo-saxon ideology now, and Germany, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and the Baltics make up the core of the germanic/ordoliberal faction.

                  Greece and Cyprus are swing/blocking votes, and the IMF needs them to continue to block banking reforms. So it is, unsurprisingly, happy to switch its stance on debt write-downs 180 degrees, to ensure that the ordoliberals are seen as the bad guys.

                  Lost in all of this is that the size of the debt doesn't actually affect the economy of Greece in any way.

                  Instead, the input into ANY economic projection is the interest payment on that debt, which DOES serve as an economic drag. Greece now gets better terms than any other member of the PIIGS, and the north has been explicit about being willing to make those payments even smaller, and stretch them over even longer periods - up to deferring payment for 50 years. So the IMF's actions here really can't have anything to do with economics, and must be attributed entirely to political optics.

                  I'm guessing they're trying to ensure Greece and Cyprus' votes in blocking reform that would squelch the influence of anglo-saxon style banking in Europe.
                  The "north" steadfastly refuses to accept what it should have understood before the first bailout. Creditors need to write off part of the debt or Greece will default. They didn't and it did. And we are right back to same place once again.

                  I sense France is the primary driver of the current "change in attitude" towards the Germans that you are observing. It is inconceivable that Italy, Spain, Portugal and others have not watched what has occurred in Greece these past few years with considerable behind the scenes trepidation. But France has always seen itself as an equal to Germany in the European experiment (some might argue superior to Germany when it came to CAP distributions).

                  The emerging market sourced disinflationary wave washing over global economies is now one small policy mistake from turning into a full blown deflation. Overindebted developed market economies are almost a vulnerable as emerging markets. France, with such a large dependence on agriculture commodities, particularly so imo. Unlike every other commodity category, price declines in agricultural commodities worldwide have heretofore been tempered by widespread government use of subsidies, marketing boards, quotas, food-self-sufficiency policies and various non-tariff barriers.

                  The long awaited, inevitable implosion of China is now intensifying the global disinflation that started 4 years ago. Couple that with Germany's intense standing dislike of reflationary monetary and fiscal policies and this mix for France is deadly. My prediction years ago was that Germany would find itself isolated within the EU, and was most likely to be the first nation to exit the currency union. In a disinflationary/deflationary world deficit/debt ridden France has more in common with Greece than it does with Germany.
                  Last edited by GRG55; August 02, 2015, 10:21 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Greece talks collaspe!

                    Yes i 1st heard of the forth coming 4th Reich on Max Keiser some years ago & latter in Jim Rickards book "The Death of money" (Chap 5).
                    Mike

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Greece talks collaspe!

                      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                      My prediction years ago was that Germany would find itself isolated within the EU, and was most likely to be the first nation to exit the currency union.
                      That would be akin to California and New York exiting the US republic. The rest of us would look more like Greece than we'd like to think.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Greece talks collaspe!

                        Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                        That would be akin to California and New York exiting the US republic. The rest of us would look more like Greece than we'd like to think.
                        I maintain my prior stance that Greece is much more likely to exit the EMU first, should someone go.

                        The last 6-8 months have only made that balance of probabilities more one-sided than ever. If Germany leaving wasn't entirely unthinkable before, it certainly has shifted considerably further in that direction.

                        For one thing, the predicted isolation of Germany just isn't happening at all. Quite the reverse. The EuroGroup now has a more solid contingent in the ordoliberal faction, many of whom are far more opinionated on the subject than Germany itself.
                        Originally posted by Reuters, link above
                        Nor was Merkel as tough as creditors such as Finland, the Netherlands, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia in insisting on humiliating conditions for any further assistance to Greece.
                        (There's more, but those were demonstrably most vocal.)

                        Greece's recent attempts to ignore past deals has made German conceptions of rules and enforcement mechanisms *(1) seem not only like a good idea, but for some previous doubters, an obvious necessity.

                        Before, one could reasonably argue "well, we're all responsible adults here, we don't really need to distrust each others' numbers, or doubt political leaders' promises to enact negotiated legislation, or otherwise infringe on sovereignty." That idea is basically unjustifiable now.

                        Greece has spent the last several months indisputably proving that the exact reverse is true. The Greek government's 2015 actions have made Germany's requests look positively prescient. All those rules that had previously been thought excessive, and were negotiated down by other nations, became exactly what those same parties were now wishing they hadn't objected to, so that they could apply them in Greece!

                        That's why people were looking to Schäuble in the EG negotiations with Varoufakis. It was understood that if they'd listened to him more in the beginning, the mess couldn't have gotten so bad in the first place. It would have been impolitic for him to say "told you so" but everyone in the room knew it anyway. Even France was cowed, succeeding only in blocking written Grexit threats, and that only momentarily. (The possibility is still written in the ordoliberal playbook,*(2) so it's not going away.)


                        When we do a headcount, we see that by now just the greater ordoliberal voting block has enough votes to block legislation or appointments that would make the EMU a serious threat to Germany.

                        Calling that "isolated" makes no sense. If anything, Germany is the now in the moderate part of its growing ideological faction. It's reasonable to worry that it has some convincing to do within its own faction before it can make concessions to countries like Greece and France. But thinking it is an extreme or lonely view in the EU is simply wrong. You could make that case about Finland, and very easily so. But Germany is now more than ever in the political center of Europe.

                        Specifically looking at issues concerning Greece and Grexit, the ordoliberal faction's size is even more overwhelming. Here, it encompasses the remaining PIIGS as well, who are finally starting to see the first slight glimmers of benefit from successful ordoliberal reforms. For votes on this issue the block has a very durable 15/19 votes, and the only question anyone can ask that involves isolation is whether the ordoliberals can pull together the qualified majority that would allow them to legislate unilaterally about the EMU. In other words, the only question can be: "Are France and Italy isolated?"

                        To France's great relief, that is still not quite true, but only by a hair's breadth. A Brexit, however, would push it over the line. [Though the UK is not in the EMU, it can still (with some associated diplomatic baggage) interfere with ratification of EG decisions in the EC.]

                        After a Brexit, France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus could complain all they wanted in the Eurogroup, but without the UK to provide its reliably "less Europe" vote in the European council, they wouldn't be able to stop the rest from meeting the double-majority requirement comfortably.

                        The UK referendum has already been announced. I expect that France might be sweating a bit over it now, and lobbying for concessions. I see the most extreme ordoliberals, however, as privately working to figure out how to best encourage a Brexit, without actually seeming to. Greece's ability to affect EU politics is a fair demonstration of how the more devoted ordoliberals will want to handle Cameron's requests for symbolic concessions in advance of the referendum. Germany is reluctant to push for Brexit (mostly for domestic political considerations) but I'd guess that pro-Brexit sentiment still played a role in the recent easy re-election of the Dutch Dijsselbloem as EuroGroup President. He doesn't seem to shy from conflict, and is among the stauncher ordoliberals. His presence sets up possible EG/EC tension, which would leave ample opportunities for misunderstandings.


                        Since the European Council appoints the ECB president, growth of the ordoliberal viewpoint in Europe also means that after a 16-year run of decidedly Anglo-Saxon presidents running the ECB, ordoliberals could finally (in 2019) get a chance at having a leader there who will actually be interested in running it the way it was designed, instead of fighting tooth-and-nail to turn it Anglo-Saxon.

                        I don't see why Germany would be interested in leaving, right when it is might finally get a chance to have its way. If it can keep its coalition together, or growing, for four more years, it stands a pretty good chance of at last having the influence that Anglo-Saxons keep pretending it already does, when they're rallying the coalition to defend their banks.

                        "Tell a lie often enough, and eventually it might become the truth?" Four years is a long time yet, but there is a chance it might happen, in this case. Certainly much better odds than before 2015.

                        For these reasons, and many others, I tend to agree with santafe2 on this. Germany leaving is ... unlikely.

                        Greece, however, is still a pawn that can be pushed around, by France, by Germany, or by the UK, to influence the outcomes they really care about.

                        Even if Greece never actually goes, its potential exit is a useful tool to wave around by all parties, either as a warning of what happens to nations in the absence of good rules, or to highlight the tragic consequences of indifference to suffering, when applying them. But in all camps, that will just be political theatre, meant for the cameras, and the voters at home. When it comes to the game of Europe itself, the plans are already drawn up, the sides are for the most part set, and the interests that the larger nations are most worried about are ... their own. If a Grexit is what any of the factions thinks it needs to durably subdue the others, then that could still happen.

                        We'll just have to watch and see how it turns out. Barring yet new developments in Greece, the next big turning point is the Brexit referendum "by the end of 2017". I'd say that's the medium-term goal that will be in most minds, when laying out plans. In the shorter term, it'll be about how firmly to negotiate on banking reform, based on the 2012 Liikanen report.(Full Text) There could be an interesting dynamic going on between those two goals, depending on how hard the City of London leans on Cameron.

                        *[Footnote]The links point to (1) a translation of an executive summary of a (2) recent 58-page German Council of Economic Advisors report. It'll be the ordoliberal playbook for a while, but the full text isn't in English yet. Both the summary, and the earlier Reuters article that pointed to it, are worth looking at, depending on how deep a reader cares to explore.[/Footnote]
                        Last edited by astonas; August 04, 2015, 01:43 AM. Reason: Formatting, grammar, clarity, added more links and footnotes ...

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