America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -

[vt]

http://www.amazon.com/Shattered-Consensus-Decline-America%C2%92s
Political/dp/1594036713/ref=sr_1_1s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1437187111&sr=1-1&keywords=shattered+consensus



http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas...ion-1436918113


"In perhaps the greatest irony of the dying era, the massive programs demanded by today’s statists require that the rich they love to deprecate get richer. With the most progressive tax system in the entire OECD—in which the fabled 1% pay 29% of all taxes and the top 10% provide 53% (in the bluest of states, such as California, the burden is even more lopsided)—only more inequality can keep this unsustainable system going a while longer."

"A system failure is only a matter of time. At some point, what Democrat Erskine Bowleshas aptly labeled “the most predictable crisis in American history” will be upon us, as the federal government defaults by one means or another on its unpayable promises. A revolt of the betrayed elderly, or of the plundered young, could be the catalyst for Mr. Piereson’s revolution. Perhaps even sooner, one state rendered destitute by reckless government spending and public pensions will attempt to dump its hopeless debt problem on the rest of the union. Which of these scenarios is most likely? Which most dangerous? Could the fourth revolution manifest itself in a separatist movement by states where majorities feel culturally estranged and disinclined to pick up the tab for the extravagance of less responsible states? Could the growing number of citizens professing economic conservatism coupled with libertarian social views be the front edge of a new consensus? No doubt this insightful author can help the rest of us think through these possibilities, but it appears that we will have to await his next book."

[dcarrigg]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

Goddamn the reactionary libertarian wing of the right is sounding increasingly seditious and treasonous all the time. Spitting at patriots and calling them 'statists.' Cheering on the prospect of taking grandpa and grandmas benefits away. Encouraging outright secession and revolution. This stuff is just stone cold whacky. Only in the head of a truly delusional libertarian is the prospect of needing to return to 1990s tax rates a worthy cause with which to agitate for revolution.

[don]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

DC, the wackiness goes on unabated. The End of Imperialism, the Death of Empire, Beyond Capitalism . . . ad absurdum.

[vt]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

Goddamn the reactionary libertarian wing of the right is sounding increasingly seditious and treasonous all the time. Spitting at patriots and calling them 'statists.' Cheering on the prospect of taking grandpa and grandmas benefits away. Encouraging outright secession and revolution. This stuff is just stone cold whacky. Only in the head of a truly delusional libertarian is the prospect of needing to return to 1990s tax rates a worthy cause with which to agitate for revolution.

This has nothing to do with right or left; the issue is with increasing longevity what type of retirement and health coverage is possible to provide a reasonable standard of living for all citizens when they are no longer able to work.

The key is how to save early and enough to support a reasonable retirement. Politicians tend to over promise what is mathematically possible and then inflate away the debt to make it appear to work. Unfortunately the inflation has the worst effect on senior citizens.

There are also issues of fairness such as elites in private industry granting themselves gold plated benefits, and government unions granting double dip pensions and other benefits to available to the public.

Illinois and California are great examples of excesses that are not substainable.

[dcarrigg]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

DC, the wackiness goes on unabated. The End of Imperialism, the Death of Empire, Beyond Capitalism . . . ad absurdum.

I guess. It's just extra whacky to see it all coming from former governors and major university presidents now. The analysis itself is curious, since it seems to completely ignore the 'revolutionary' contributions of Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan. It pays only lip-service to the 60s, desegregation, and the massive political realignment in its wake.

But what concerns me most is that a man who never had a private sector job in his life--who went from law school to working for Dick Luger to working for the NRSC to working for President Reagan to OMB Director for Bush to former Indiana Governor and now President of a Public University system has the gall to call other Americans 'statists' with contempt and derision, as if he's some kind of pure anarchist or something.

[Raz]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

This has nothing to do with right or left; the issue is with increasing longevity what type of retirement and health coverage is possible to provide a reasonable standard of living for all citizens when they are no longer able to work.

The key is how to save early and enough to support a reasonable retirement. Politicians tend to over promise what is mathematically possible and then inflate away the debt to make it appear to work. Unfortunately the inflation has the worst effect on senior citizens.

There are also issues of fairness such as elites in private industry granting themselves gold plated benefits, and government unions granting double dip pensions and other benefits unavailable to the public.

Illinois and California are great examples of excesses that are not sustainable.

+1.

"Elites in private industry" are ripping off their shareholders; public employee unions are ripping off the taxpayers.
And ALL of this courtesy of the Political Class.

[Raz]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

Goddamn the reactionary libertarian wing of the right is sounding increasingly seditious and treasonous all the time. Spitting at patriots and calling them 'statists.' Cheering on the prospect of taking grandpa and grandmas benefits away. Encouraging outright secession and revolution. This stuff is just stone cold whacky. Only in the head of a truly delusional libertarian is the prospect of needing to return to 1990s tax rates a worthy cause with which to agitate for revolution.

You usually sound quite reasonable, dc. What I (and at least 1/3rd of the American people according to Rasmussen) find "seditious and treasonous" is a Leftist assault on the Constitution and the rule of law: "sanctuary cities", open borders, prosecuting Christians who don't want to participate in procured abortion or sodomy, PC sanctioned speech, gun control that opens a clear pathway for easier confiscation, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

I'll admit that a large part of the problem comes from the so-called "Right", as in Citizens United where I also find real problems.
And I have no beef with putting personal income tax rates back where they were during the Clinton years.

But the Left appears to desire the disassembling of our Federal system by imposing a de facto Unitary system. The 14th Amendment is now being used to negate the 1st Amendment. This will cause revolt.

Personally, I believe it's time for a divorce. Better to break the country in half now that to endure a bloody civil war.

[lektrode]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

+1.

"Elites in private industry" are ripping off their shareholders; public employee unions are ripping off the taxpayers.
And ALL of this courtesy of the Political Class.

+2
and ALL of it at the behest and direct benefit of THE BANKSTER CLASS!

[vt]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

The problem, as I've stated before, is that the left and the right can never compromise. They each resort to name calling and control parts of each party.

The press is also split right and left. They are of no help in this debate because they have taken sides.

The majority of Americans are in the center, willing to compromise and work out differences. We need to address our problems of aging populations and come up with realistic solutions. We need to call out the elites on both sides.

This has everything to do with economic progress and the goal of raising our citizens to reasonable standards of living in a fair system. You cannot pay for programs without economic growth. You cannot have programs that work with bureaucratic inertia and an overweight public sector.

Elitist crony socialism and capitalism no longer work. We need a new system. Capital and labor are a part of the equation but we are now in a knowledge society that is global in nature. We need to revitalize entrepreneurship to create millions of news jobs and hundreds of new industries.

We need to educate our children and retrain our workers. Our governments have failed to do this so we need to revitalize education too.

All new ideas are welcome; the old ones won't work anymore.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

Has anyone seen 3rd world tribalism up close and personal?

I don't think we are so far removed from it.

The good fortune of being geographically located on easily defensible ground filled with vast wealth, and reasonably homogenous demographics provided epic opportunity of wealth creation in a relatively stable environment(bar one rather nasty civil war).

And corruption can be absorbed without excessive notice, to a point.

I see this as indicators of that point approaching.

-----

Anyone remember the film Serpico?

Great flick, and a great example of coalface corruption, during a rather tough time for that particular local economy.

US law enforcement corruption collapsed as US wealth increased.

But as US wealth staggers, will we see a return to "local Serpicos"?

Check out US Border Patrol infiltration from Mexican cartels as one really nasty example.

I tend to think of it simply.

Like a picturesque David Attenborough documentary about the African Seregeti.

All the species(tribes) seem to coexist well enough in the wet season(growing wealth/liquidity), but the fangs really come out in the dry season(wealth/liquidity destruction) and it's every species, tribe, man for himself.

[Polish_Silver]

law and order vs wealth

Has anyone seen 3rd world tribalism up close and personal?

I don't think we are so far removed from it.

The good fortune of being geographically located on easily defensible ground filled with vast wealth, and reasonably homogenous demographics provided epic opportunity of wealth creation in a relatively stable environment(bar one rather nasty civil war).

And corruption can be absorbed without excessive notice, to a point.

I see this as indicators of that point approaching.

. . . .and it's every species, tribe, man for himself.

I think scarcity can bring out self interest and rivalry between groups.

However, I do not believe that affluence breeds corruption. I believe that law and order are like
environmental health. As a group becomes more wealthy, they can afford to care about aesthetic and moral factors.

I think the complexity of modern economics systems is leading to certain types of corruption.

i) the overpay of many executives
ii) the manipulation of public policy by corporate interests. (what's the word for that ?? !)

PS

[santafe2]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

I guess. It's just extra whacky to see it all coming from former governors and major university presidents now. The analysis itself is curious, since it seems to completely ignore the 'revolutionary' contributions of Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan. It pays only lip-service to the 60s, desegregation, and the massive political realignment in its wake.

But what concerns me most is that a man who never had a private sector job in his life--who went from law school to working for Dick Luger to working for the NRSC to working for President Reagan to OMB Director for Bush to former Indiana Governor and now President of a Public University system has the gall to call other Americans 'statists' with contempt and derision, as if he's some kind of pure anarchist or something.

In the US the one tenth of one percent of the economic class and the modern generic political class are happy to support issues that divide as long as they don't break our system of government. It's of course not this simple but that is how wealth and power are consolidated. There are times when human progress or regression breaks through and those in power have to step back and assess the situation before we can again move forward. It's not always pretty but this is the beauty and flexibility of the US system. When change is demanded, the system is designed well enough to accommodate or thwart the change and move forward.

It may take another generation but it appears we're again approaching such a time in the US. The political elite are effete and inter-married. The classic example are the Clinton and Bush families who would powder their wigs if they could get away with it. Along with a broken political class, the Cristo and Muslim fascists are proud to display their hatred. At some point both of these factions will be crushed like the racist South was crushed over the last 150 years. It takes generations to move ahead socially. Without our sometimes awful economic system, we will not continue to move human equality ahead. I suspect religion is on the block in the 21st Century. Mohammed, Jesus, great philosophers. Their followers, idiots of the worst sort.

[vt]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

Santa Fe said:

"I suspect religion is on the block in the 21st Century. Mohammed, Jesus, great philosophers. Their followers, idiots of the worst sort."

So everyone who professes a religious faith is an idiot?!

Yes, we've had religious wars, and many have been killed in the name of religion.

But fascism and communism are philosophies too, and far more have been killed and tortured in their name.

[Woodsman]

Re: America's Next Revolution (the fourth) -Shattered Consensus

...But fascism and communism are philosophies too, and far more have been killed and tortured in their name.

Oh Lord, not this trope again. Anyone serious about demonstrating political and intellectual independence would be well advised to avoid this line of argument. It's a dead-end, bad pun intended. But those who insist should consider a few initial numbers:

1844: Marx meets Engels at the Café de la Régence and publishes "The Condition of the Working Class in England."
1889: Earliest proto-fascist movement, the Fasci Siciliani
1914: Mussolini founds the Fasci d'Azione rivoluzionaria internazionalista

Prior to these dates, neither communism or fascism existed. As such, no crimes can be attributed to them. If we really want a headcount, here's a good start:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_death_toll

[Polish_Silver]

Has been Authorities.

. . .. It's not always pretty but this is the beauty and flexibility of the US system. When change is demanded, the system is designed well enough to accommodate or thwart the change and move forward.

It may take another generation but it appears we're again approaching such a time in the US. The political elite are effete and inter-married. . . . I suspect religion is on the block in the 21st Century. Mohammed, Jesus, great philosophers. Their followers, idiots of the worst sort.

I think the US political system has lost much of the beauty and effectiveness it once had. Too much regulatory capture. The political class is too self serving. The government bureaucracies are too vast, and disconnected from the needs of taxpayers/voters.

It is no big secret why it has happened. The electoral system is hopelessly outmoded. The two party system doesn't give the voters enough choice. The two parties monopolize a lethargic center, and the changes needed never happen. For example, both socialists and libertarians wanted to rip the balls off of the financial class in 2008, but it never happened. What ? Nader and gold bugs joining forces against a common enemy?

Other countries have proportional representation, which gives voters real choice and makes the government much more dynamic.

I wouldn't put "great philosophers" in the same category with religion. Philosophers advocate critical thinking, rejecting tradition and authority.

Paradoxically, some of the great religions started out in the same way. If you straight forwardly read the Christian Gospels, what you see is a big rejection of the religious status quo, an emphasis on personal relationship with god, rather than institutional religion.

Of course, very quickly Christianity itself became a new religious bureaucracy, aided by the government in Rome, it's one time enemy.