Where's Oil going????????????

[Mega]

USA & Iran now love each other............i take it oil will be getting given away by next year?
Mike

[Raz]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Lots of opinions, few good reads.
Try these.

PS. I have the PDF of Art Behrman's article but it's too large to upload.
Read it here: http://www.artberman.com/a-longer-pe...-prices-ahead/

[lektrode]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Gold, Stocks, Oil... Choose One

Would you rather have one “Share” of the S&P 500 at $2,124, or 41 barrels of crude oil, or 1.86 ounces of gold? Yes, they are all worth the same amount at the moment, but the price relationship between the three has shifted over the decades.

[santafe2]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Gold, Stocks, Oil... Choose One

Responding to the article lek, not personalizing this...only an idiot would choose one. Diversification works well for all investors including Buffett.

"Warren Buffett hates gold as an investment"...that's because gold is not an investment, it's insurance. If we were Warren Buffett we wouldn't need gold, we just buy insurance companies like he does. The only thing better than having proper insurance is owning the insurance company. For Buffet it's GEICO for us it's gold.

The rest of the article is the usual blah, blah, blah, gold is great. Should everyone own some gold and sliver? Of course. Is it an investment? No. It's also not a philosophical position any more than your flood insurance. No one has to marry precious metals to own them.

And one other small point. Generally when the smartest investor in the world says something is not an investment, it's not a horrible idea to listen to them.

[sandwind]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Gold, Stocks, Oil... Choose One

Martin Armstrong : Gold has opened the week in Asia with a bang – down nearly $30. This has come right on target for our Panic Cycle this week. Gold is headed sharply lower and it will break the $1,000 level and everyone will then start to look for $600-700 area.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35149

[lektrode]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Responding to the article lek, not personalizing this...only an idiot would choose one. ....

understood/no sweat, santa.

And one other small point. Generally when the smartest investor in the world says something is not an investment, it's not a horrible idea to listen to them.

point taken.
is also why i held off buying (any more of) the phys.
just wish i'd taken more off the table (in miner stox) sooner...
but sure is looking like we're coming up on the edge, once again...

OTOH - we DO know that uncle warren is/has been backing the banker cartel all along,
and that the yellow stuff is 'the enemy', as its been put...

and some think that china is working out a deal (kinda like uncle warren did with GS) ...

[santafe2]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

point taken.
is also why i held off buying (any more of) the phys.
just wish i'd taken more off the table (in miner stox) sooner...
but sure is looking like we're coming up on the edge, once again...

OTOH - we DO know that uncle warren is/has been backing the banker cartel all along,
and that the yellow stuff is 'the enemy', as its been put...

and some think that china is working out a deal (kinda like uncle warren did with GS) ...

Yup, everyone sells their book. WB isn't going to bash big banks, he's massively invested. My point is that when the world's best investor is giving away information, it's not a bad idea to listen. We're not discussing morality, we're talking about how to make money. In the late 90s I pulled most of my money out of stocks. I didn't do it because I'm smart, I did it because WB was talking about hoarding cash because there was nothing of value to buy and Ballmer was talking about how over valued MSFT was.

To stay on point, gold is not an investment, it's insurance. As for the mining stocks, I am looking at them after today. Newmont, Kinross, Barrick? It's hard to hate them after the bloodbath. But none of these are investments or insurance. It's gambling money. My favorite is KGC, it returns almost 10%. I bought a few shares today. Not everything in life is about making money. If gold turns up so will KGC and I'll have a nice story to tell. If not, no problem my very boring investments will do well enough.

[touchring]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Yup, everyone sells their book. WB isn't going to bash big banks, he's massively invested. My point is that when the world's best investor is giving away information, it's not a bad idea to listen. We're not discussing morality, we're talking about how to make money. In the late 90s I pulled most of my money out of stocks. I didn't do it because I'm smart, I did it because WB was talking about hoarding cash because there was nothing of value to buy and Ballmer was talking about how over valued MSFT was.

To stay on point, gold is not an investment, it's insurance. As for the mining stocks, I am looking at them after today. Newmont, Kinross, Barrick? It's hard to hate them after the bloodbath. But none of these are investments or insurance. It's gambling money. My favorite is KGC, it returns almost 10%. I bought a few shares today. Not everything in life is about making money. If gold turns up so will KGC and I'll have a nice story to tell. If not, no problem my very boring investments will do well enough.

Thanks for the heads up on KGC. But why KG? I noticed it had been losing money since 2011 - well before the gold price collapse.

I agree that gold stx is attractive, and there's potential for x5-x10 gain if we can catch the low. But how to know it is bottoming? From what I can see, gold stx are like Greece bank stocks, they are very cheap, a tiny fraction of previous highs, but they are still falling.

[santafe2]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Thanks for the heads up on KGC. But why KG? I noticed it had been losing money since 2011 - well before the gold price collapse.

I agree that gold stx is attractive, and there's potential for x5-x10 gain if we can catch the low. But how to know it is bottoming? From what I can see, gold stx are like Greece bank stocks, they are very cheap, a tiny fraction of previous highs, but they are still falling.

I am buying NEM and ABX here as well but as I said, this resembles gambling more than investing. When I'm bottom fishing like this I try to take several positions over a period of months or even years. I don't expect gold to rebound any time soon but this is a good place to start picking up some shares if one thinks gold will some day be $2,000 an ounce.

[Raz]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

"Only the Shadow knows, ...heh, heh, heh ..." But if I looked for a bottom I'd expect to see the type of things we're seeing now.

Ritholtz's Reads: Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock

And I'd look for the Committment of Traders report to show a washout of Small Speculators (Non-reportables). And I'd also look for the Hedgies (listed as Commercials, but they're not miners or fabricators of gold) to be heavily Short ...


This spectacular chart from Saxo Bank shows the action of leveraged hedge funds on the COMEX. Conspiracy buffs often refer to it as the “CRIMEX”, partly because a lot of the trades put on by banks classified as “commercial” traders appear to be more speculative than commercial.

Regardless, the Saxo chart is a contrarian gold investor’s friend. I’ve highlighted the peaks and troughs of hedge fund buying with green and gold circles, and done the same thing with the gold price.

It’s clear that the funds have been major gold buyers at market highs, and major gold sellers at market lows. Right now, the funds are holding a record short position, just as gold tends to make a major seasonal low!



And I'd also look at the Seasonal tendencies on Gold for a likely time when most lows were made in the Yellow "Pet Rock" ...




(There's a better chart in the attached document showing when Gold price lows have been most likely to form.)

We might drop down to $1,042 - possibly $1,000. But I wouldn't be looking for $800 or $900 like some of the loudest bears - unless there's a MAJOR deflationary accident.

[touchring]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

I am buying NEM and ABX here as well but as I said, this resembles gambling more than investing. When I'm bottom fishing like this I try to take several positions over a period of months or even years. I don't expect gold to rebound any time soon but this is a good place to start picking up some shares if one thinks gold will some day be $2,000 an ounce.

Definitely, surely no one expects that the US deficit can continue until 2030?

But gold stocks are different from physical gold. Can gold producers go bankrupt or be acquired cheaply by competitors before gold price gets to $2000 an ounce?

[santafe2]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

But gold stocks are different from physical gold. Can gold producers go bankrupt or be acquired cheaply by competitors before gold price gets to $2000 an ounce?

Gold is insurance. It's a bit boring. It's very unlikely you'll get a 10 bagger with gold. Miners are more like gambling on the price of gold. The downside, (as people have seen over the last 4 years), can be huge. As gold dropped 40% in price NEM dropped 75%, ABX 85% and KGC over 90%. If gold doubles from here, KGC could be a 10 bagger. That's the logic. The miners can also continue to move down from here. But if/as they do, I'll continue to buy.

[Raz]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Here's a detrended seasonal chart for gold that's much more accurate. The attached article explains why and contains several additional charts.

For the past 30+ years the lows in Gold have predominately occurred during July/August.

[touchring]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Gold is insurance. It's a bit boring. It's very unlikely you'll get a 10 bagger with gold. Miners are more like gambling on the price of gold. The downside, (as people have seen over the last 4 years), can be huge. As gold dropped 40% in price NEM dropped 75%, ABX 85% and KGC over 90%. If gold doubles from here, KGC could be a 10 bagger. That's the logic. The miners can also continue to move down from here. But if/as they do, I'll continue to buy.

On 10 bagger, don't know about gold stocks, but banks stocks didn't recover to previous highs.

Citigroup was $500 before splits and is only $60 today, up from previous average lows of about $25-$30.

[Raz]

Re: Where's Oil going????????????

Read this, Lek. It was referenced in a ZeroHedge article today.
I bought Chevron, Conoco and Vermillion Energy pretty close to the December lows, but I'm UNDERWATER now.

I was itching to buy more oil shares until I read this today. I probably will buy more should they keep falling,
but I plan to be a LOT more selective. Crescent Point (CPG) is definitely on my list should it drop down close to $15 US.