Gun control anyone (again)

[BK]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Vermont! If you have ever traveled to Vermont you would understand how sparsely populated the state is.

Vermont population approximately 600,000-700,000 - hardly statistically relevant.

Gun deaths aren't a problem in Vermont, but heroin use is http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/us...-epidemic.html

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Adjust the murder rate numbers for the three aforementioned states by removing one particular ethnic group and then see what they look like.

Do the very same adjustment for Chicago, Detroit, Memphis, New Orleans, D.C., East St. Louis, et cetera, and see what they then look like.

I was about to mention the issue with Hawaii having a low murder rate being very likely related to its high Asian population.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Vermont! If you have ever traveled to Vermont you would understand how sparsely populated the state is.

Vermont population approximately 600,000-700,000 - hardly statistically relevant.

Gun deaths aren't a problem in Vermont, but heroin use is http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/us...-epidemic.html

Heroin's a problem all over New England right now. Has been for a few years.

You already covered VT.

Here's ME.

Here's NH.

Here's MA.

Here's RI.

Here's CT.

We never really had much by the way of meth addicts up here. But the last couple of years herion has roared back in with a vengence. This time often with fentanyl or fentanyl analogues playing a part, which seems to ratchet up the deaths.

Seems like the big busts are in Montreal, and they get the death waves before the New England.

Then again, old Montreal is the biggest city in Vermont after all...

[dcarrigg]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Adjust the murder rate numbers for the three aforementioned states by removing one particular ethnic group and then see what they look like.

Do the very same adjustment for Chicago, Detroit, Memphis, New Orleans, D.C., East St. Louis, et cetera, and see what they then look like.

I don't think the adjustment will explain all the variation between states.

New Mexico is 3% black. Murder rate is pretty close to Mississippi. New York is 19% black. Murder rate is much lower. Pennsylvania is 13% black, just like Texas, but each one has a murder rate higher than New York. Connecticut is also 13% black, just like Texas and Pennsylvania. Murder rate is half what Texas and Pennsylvania's is. Delaware's 24% black. It has a very close murder rate to Kansas, which is 9%. Massachusetts is 9% black like Kansas, but it has half the murder rate Kansas does. And so on and so forth.

4th state on the list is Maryland. 5th is Michigan. But Michigan in 1990 was about 30th. You ask me, and outsourcing might ultimately be as responsible for Detroit murder rates as anything else.

Meanwhile, Virginia has come way down. Right there with Colorado and New York. It's a southern state. 21% black. It just looks like Old Virginny got rich again. West Virginia - one of the whitest states in the union - only 3% black - is exactly even with New York and about even with Virginia right now.

And, you have more rather white states - like Nevada and Missouri - with high murder rates.

The race answer might seem like it's an easy answer. And in localized neighborhoods you may even be able to shake it out of the data with significance. But state-by-state across the country I don't think it holds up. I'm willing to bet you that percent poor population (after transfers, not at median income) and percentage of people with less than a high school diploma are much more powerful predictors of murder rates by state than race.

I guess the message I'm trying to drive home is this:

There's a big gap between murder rates in various states either way you cut it. Something's driving that gap. And even holding race constant, the gap exists. Other factors have to be at play.

I don't think race explains it. Just like I don't think guns explain it. It's just not in the numbers.

But there is a certain je ne sais quoi with this, don't you think, Raz?

Would anyone here say on average they'd expect someone from Vermont to be more dangerous than someone from West Virginia? These are both very white, rural states mostly in the appalachian mountains with similar gun ownership rates and no major cities.

But even just in your imagination, isn't the random Vermonter obviously a bit less prone to random acts of violence than the random West Virginian? Or is that my screwed up Yankee bias talking? It could be. But somehow I don't think so.

Because even up here, in my imagination the random Vermonter is a bit less prone to random acts of violence than the random Mainer. But that makes a poorer example, since the differences between the two are harder for people 'frum awaaaay' to suss out.

[vt]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

[lektrode]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

I was about to mention the issue with Hawaii having a low murder rate being very likely related to its high Asian population.

that would be a part of it, for sure - as they tend to be a bit more humble AND respectful of others feelings and sensibilities - but my obs has been that its mostly due to historically - as in during the plantation days - when 'asians' were coming there from all different parts of asia - that in order for the widely disparate ethnic groups to work together, they HAD to go along, to get along (read: tolerance of the other ethnicities quirks, not to mention fave grindz - aka foods...)

that and living on an island has its own particular way of enforcing civility - as in:
the very thought of a free midnight guided tour of a canefield (or sharkfishing boatride, both of em 1-way trips) ?
tends to be quite intimidating.

= who needs a gun, brah...

sorta kinda like what happened to ole charlie...



and how its quite easy to 'disappear' out there:

I don't think the adjustment will explain all the variation between states....
...
The race answer might seem like it's an easy answer. And in localized neighborhoods you may even be able to shake it out of the data with significance. But state-by-state across the country I don't think it holds up. I'm willing to bet you that percent poor population (after transfers, not at median income) and percentage of people with less than a high school diploma are much more powerful predictors of murder rates by state than race.

ayuh - esp in places where they get lots of 'socially promoted' students, majoring in 'self esteem' -
which is a fairly dangerous combination: ignorant + high self esteem = violent tendency

and we wont even get into the.. ummmm... cultural celebrations of diversity - brought to us by (mostly) hollywierd and the rest of the lamerstream media:



i mean...just because some people like to think this sort of 'entertainment' doesnt actually cause violence ?
so its somehow OK ?

thats when i call BS - its a just bit more than 'art imitating life' - no matter what the 'entertainment' industry apologists (and their lawyers) want to claim.

I guess the message I'm trying to drive home is this:

There's a big gap between murder rates in various states either way you cut it. Something's driving that gap. And even holding race constant, the gap exists. Other factors have to be at play.

I don't think race explains it. Just like I don't think guns explain it. It's just not in the numbers.

But there is a certain je ne sais quoi with this, don't you think, Raz?

Would anyone here say on average they'd expect someone from Vermont to be more dangerous than someone from West Virginia? These are both very white, rural states mostly in the appalachian mountains with similar gun ownership rates and no major cities.

But even just in your imagination, isn't the random Vermonter obviously a bit less prone to random acts of violence than the random West Virginian? Or is that my screwed up Yankee bias talking? It could be. But somehow I don't think so.

Because even up here, in my imagination the random Vermonter is a bit less prone to random acts of violence than the random Mainer. But that makes a poorer example, since the differences between the two are harder for people 'frum awaaaay' to suss out.

whew, dc - for a second theyah, i was thinkin you were gonna start comparin' mainahs to new hampstahs - when we all know why vermontahs tend to be somewhat more... uhhh.... mellow...

but yeah, some o them mainiacs can get some wild - specially the hair-trigger trespassin types...

[Master Shake]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Gun control solves nothing except it disarms the law-abiding.

Biggest bunch of bullshit I've ever read.

[BK]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Father present and active would go a long way in preventing many of these tragedies.

We will never hear a Politician stand up and call out all of the uninvolved fathers or broken homes.

Every solution politicians offer requires more taxes and more citizens giving up freedoms.

Sadly, too many actually think Politicians can protect us from life.

[vt]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

From "Foreign Policy"


By Paul McLeary with Adam Rawnsley

New details. It was two years ago that a handful of al Shabab fighters stormed into Kenya’s Westgate Mall, kicking off an hours-long killing spree at the upscale Nairobi shopping center that would claim at least 67 lives. FP contributor Tristan McConnell checks in with a great piece of reporting marking the anniversary, and providing new details on how the fighters were killed.

The Kenyan government didn’t play much of a part in ending the three-hour bloodbath, McConnell reports. By the time security forces arrived, the attack was mostly over thanks to an “unlikely coalition of licensed civilian gun owners and brave, resourceful individual police officers [who] took it upon themselves to mount a rescue effort.” While this little band of saviors would ferry dozens of people to safety, when Kenyan forces did arrive, “it was only to shoot at one another before going on an armed looting spree that resulted in the collapse of the rear of the building, destroyed with a rocket-propelled grenade. And there were only four gunmen, all of whom were buried in the rubble, along with much of the forensic evidence.”

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

From "Foreign Policy"


By Paul McLeary with Adam Rawnsley

New details. It was two years ago that a handful of al Shabab fighters stormed into Kenya’s Westgate Mall, kicking off an hours-long killing spree at the upscale Nairobi shopping center that would claim at least 67 lives. FP contributor Tristan McConnell checks in with a great piece of reporting marking the anniversary, and providing new details on how the fighters were killed.

The Kenyan government didn’t play much of a part in ending the three-hour bloodbath, McConnell reports. By the time security forces arrived, the attack was mostly over thanks to an “unlikely coalition of licensed civilian gun owners and brave, resourceful individual police officers [who] took it upon themselves to mount a rescue effort.” While this little band of saviors would ferry dozens of people to safety, when Kenyan forces did arrive, “it was only to shoot at one another before going on an armed looting spree that resulted in the collapse of the rear of the building, destroyed with a rocket-propelled grenade. And there were only four gunmen, all of whom were buried in the rubble, along with much of the forensic evidence.”

Terrible tragedy.

The FP article gets it mostly right in my opinion.

They seemed to have missed the Israel/Kenya connection with the Kenyan General Service Unit Recces. There might even be a photo in that article. Just my guess ;)

Dealing with an "Active Shooter" is something that many western countries have been investing greater resources in terms of training and revised doctrine.

What used to be the doctrine(cordon and wait for the rock stars to come and solve the problem) has changed to the first folks to show up, move to contact to fix/finish the threat.

The change is mostly due to the fact that a cordon is simply "guarding the slaughterhouse".

Having individual citizens with the right to carry combined with the responsibility to train effectively is a valid deterrent.

It's hard to blame the Kenyan cops, they lacked the training, experience, and mindset to act effectively.

Deconfliction of command, control, communication of separate responding units is HARD, especially when it includes plainclothes specialist police(Kenya GSY Recces) and the uniformed units are poorly paid/trained.

Chaos.

Certainly possible in the US, and many local/state/federal LE have been preparing accordingly.

My guess is that if something like this were to be attempted in the US(hopefully not) or other 1st world countries(like continental western europe where illicity firearms logistics is easier), it would be in a geographical location where concealed carry of firearms by private citizens is more/most limited.

If that happened, I'd expect to see TSA like security invading your shopping malls.

A politely, responsibly, discretely armed citizenry negates the need for a good chunk of it in my opinion.

[vt]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...rate-edges-up/


Gun “epidemic” the New York Times says? Well, we know they are data-challenged there, but for what it’s worth, take in these two charts from my old pal Mark Perry:


The only thing that appears to be an “epidemic” about guns right now is liberal hysteria. Have that many liberals gone vegan? Read more here from Mark Perry on the subject, including a clinic on the visual display of quantitative information (hat tip to Ed Tufte, though).

We do need to see that gun owners get proper training and know safety rules.

[shiny!]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...rate-edges-up/


Gun “epidemic” the New York Times says? Well, we know they are data-challenged there, but for what it’s worth, take in these two charts from my old pal Mark Perry:


The only thing that appears to be an “epidemic” about guns right now is liberal hysteria. Have that many liberals gone vegan? Read more here from Mark Perry on the subject, including a clinic on the visual display of quantitative information (hat tip to Ed Tufte, though).

We do need to see that gun owners get proper training and know safety rules.

Good charts. Thanks for posting.

[LorenS]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

My biggest gripe with the current dialog about gun laws and crime in America is the mythical "gun violence" "gun deaths" and "gun suicide". Like those events go away if guns are gone. It's a total scam that, so far, has not swayed enough Americans to bring about the landslide of opinion that the gun haters wish it would. Obama, the New York Times and the NY Daily News, in particular, are throwing public tantrums.

Gun crime....... Most recently the San B. killers had loads of pipe bombs. Closer to home, the Columbine killers used pipe bombs in addition to guns and rigged an LP tank to blow. The Aurora killer rigged his entire apartment to blow, the fact that he warned cops before he killed everyone in the building may have been a factor in the jury sparing his life. The Boston terrorists used a bomb and of course no one wants to forget 9/11, at least when it comes to security legislation and spying bills.

Is Obama seriously proposing that good things will happen if we coerce these guys into spending more time perfecting their bombs?(you know, like Oklahoma city?) Does he think if they can't buy a GI Joe rifle at the store that they are going to sit and stew in the living room and merely curse America on Facebook?

Congress could possibly craft useful gun legislation, but it's not like we're lacking in laws. There are countless pages of federal gun laws. They have it pegged down to the exact length your rifle barrel has to be. You can't put a rifle stock on a pistol, but you can put a pistol stock on a rifle.....you can't put a pistol barrel on a rifle, but you can put a rifle barrel on a pistol.....and never, never put something on your gun that reduces the sound level of the blast, even just a tiny, little bit... seriously, they wrote this crap down. In Colorado, I can give a gun to my sister, she can give it to her husband and he can give it to his daughter, but if I loan my niece a gun for hunting season we both go to jail. A stroke of legislative genius I'm sure.

Obama is supposedly a scholar. He agreed to enforce the laws of the land when he was sworn in. It's pretty hard to give him any slack when he throws a hissy fit because he doesn't like our current laws.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

Obama is supposedly a scholar. He agreed to enforce the laws of the land when he was sworn in. It's pretty hard to give him any slack when he throws a hissy fit because he doesn't like our current laws.

I wonder if anyone not drunk on Democrat Kool-Aid considered Obama a scholar even before he became president. I most certainly did not think him a very intelligent person although I did believe (and still believe) he was a better candidate than McCain. As for agreeing to enforce the laws of the land and so on, it was 100% clear in the early part of his first term that he was going to renege on *all* of his meaningful, publicly-made promises to the general populace to keep his meaningful, privately-made promises to the rich and connected.

I have a difficult time deciding who is worse: George W. Bush or the current turkey-in-chief.

In light of what has happened in the U.S. during Obama's terms of office, though, I don't think he's going to get his stupid gun control laws through anything other than executive order.

[ER59]

Re: Gun control anyone (again)

I still don't understand why an average citizen may need an assault rifle? a handgun - yes, but a high capacity automatic rifle???